Dolphins vs. Colts prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win in NFL Week 1, 2025

The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins will meet in Week 1 of the NFL season at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Colts as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Dolphins-Colts game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Colts with a win probability of 55%, while the Dolphins have 45%."

This updated Dolphins vs. Colts betting preview builds on my Dolphins vs. Colts prediction that was posted earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Dolphins vs. Colts predictions page.

Dolphins vs. Colts Predictions

Since our Dolphins-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Dolphins and Colts 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Colts a 55% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 23-22.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Dolphins and Colts each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Dolphins vs. Colts odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Dolphins	Colts
Spread	+1.5 (-106)	-1.5 (-102)
Moneyline	+108	-112
Total	o46.5 (-120)	u46.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Dolphins vs. Colts picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Dolphins vs. Colts matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season, with today's best NFL bets populating now.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Dolphins vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Dolphins vs. Colts?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 1, Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score the first touchdown in Dolphins vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 15.6% chance of getting in for six first at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the Colts running back is a 55.3% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	14.5%
Tyreek Hill (WR)	8.6%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	6.7%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	15.6%
Michael Pittman (WR)	5.4%
Josh Downs (WR)	5.2%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	54.0%
Tyreek Hill (WR)	36.9%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	29.9%

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor (RB)	55.3%
Michael Pittman (WR)	24.5%
Josh Downs (WR)	23.6%

For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 1 touchdown scorer predictions

Dolphins vs Colts player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Colts. For more, check out today's highest-probability NFL prop bets.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Dolphins-Colts page now to access every player prop projection.

Dolphins vs. Colts quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is projected to throw for more yards than the Colts' Daniel Jones.

Dolphins rushing

De'Von Achane, Ollie Gordon and Tua Tagovailoa are projected to be the leading rushers for the Dolphins.

Player	Position
De'Von Achane	RB
Ollie Gordon	RB
Tua Tagovailoa	QB

Colts rushing

Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones and DJ Giddens are expected to lead the Colts in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Jonathan Taylor	RB
Daniel Jones	QB
DJ Giddens	RB

Dolphins receiving

Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Malik Washington and Julian Hill are projected to top the receiving yards for the Dolphins.

Player	Position
Tyreek Hill	WR
Jaylen Waddle	WR
De'Von Achane	RB
Malik Washington	WR
Julian Hill	TE

Colts receiving

Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are projected to lead the Colts in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Josh Downs	WR
Michael Pittman	WR
Tyler Warren	TE
Alec Pierce	WR
Adonai Mitchell	WR

Dolphins vs. Colts game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Colts and Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of this week's Dolphins vs. Colts matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Dolphins vs. Colts picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Dolphins vs. Colts insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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