Winners and Losers of the Rafael Devers Trade: Giants See Postseason Odds Shift

The Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants shocked the MLB world on Sunday night when they announced a trade for superstar Rafael Devers, sending the 28-year old slugger to San Francisco Giants who will pick up the full amount left on the 10 year, $313.5 Million contract he signed in 2023.

This trade is big and not just because Devers is a stud - it shook up the World Series odds on the sportsbooks and signifies a changing of eras.

He was the last remaining player from the Red Sox 2021 Opening Day roster, a team that already began to look different from the 2018 championship squad.

It also marks the second time in the past decade the Red sox will push the reset button and look to get back to a championship-caliber team behind a young core and a former White Sox starter as their pitching ace.

The trade wasn't completely out of nowhere as there had been some drama surrounding Devers and his unwillingness to play a position besides his native third base, but it still stunned everyone on Sunday night.

After a couple days for the dust to settle, we look at the winners and losers of this trade, aided by the Dimers Pro MLB Predictions.

Winner: Rafael Devers

The man at the center of it all is the big winner. 

Not only does Devers get out of a professional relationship with his franchise that seemed to be breaking down, he now gets a fresh start in San Francisco with his full contract intact.

He trades Boston and the colder weather for the beautiful Bay Area, where he'll also face his former teammate and best bud Xander Bogaerts regularly throughout the season.

He's joined not only a division contender but a World Series contender, as the Giants have the best bullpen in baseball and are right in the NL West race with the Dodgers.

And maybe the best part? He no longer has to watch would-be home runs bounce off the wall of the Green Monster - every year of Devers' career, he would have more home runs if he hit them all in Oracle Parka as opposed to Fenway.

This year, his 15 home runs would be 14 in Fenway and 17 in Oracle. Since joining the Giants, he's averaged a 16.2% HR probability according to the Dimers' Home Run Projections.

Loser: NL West

Sorry Dodgers, Padres, D-Backs and Rockies, but this trade is bad news for your clubs as Rafael Devers has made a habit of terrorizing his divisional opponents throughout his career.

He's batted .277 with 89 home runs, 286 RBI and a .842 OPS in 449 games vs. AL East opponents.

Those expected home runs we mentioned earlier? His are up in every single NL West ballpark, especially for the Dodger Stadium where Devers' 15 home runs this year would be a whopping 21. His 43-HR season in 2021 would be a 50-HR year adjusted for the Dodgers' park.

That's bad news for a slugger who just arrived with 8 seasons left on his deal. 

Buckle up, Dodgers and Co. 

Winner: San Francisco Giants

The Giants came out on top as far as the teams directly involved in this trade.

As they look to chip away at the Dodgers' 4.5-game lead in the NL West, they added a piece they've been missing sorely - some elite power at the dish.

For as good as they've been, the Giants rank 22nd in MLB in HR with just 71. For contrast, the Dodgers have 116 at the top of the list, while the D-Backs, another NL West opponent, sit in 4th with 102.

Devers arrives with more HR in his pocket than any player on the Giants, immediately giving them a boost which could swing some pivotal games.

Two weeks ago, the Giants were at  just 0.8% to win the World Series, 4.4% to win the NL West and 22.3% to make the postseason according to the Dimers MLB Futures.

Since then, they've jumped to 1.8% to win the World Series, 5.1% in the NL West, 26.0% to make the postseason. They may not seem like much, but don't be surprised to see those numbers trending further in that direction over the coming weeks.

Loser: Boston Red Sox

Long-term, this deal may work out for the Red Sox and these few paragraphs will be meaningless.

But for now, it's hard to envision this as an overall positive for Boston.

The Red Sox had struggled this season, but seemed to be turning things around as of late - they were 8-2 over their final 10 games with Devers, including a 5-1 record vs. the Yankees, directly cutting in to their AL East lead. 

They're tied for the third Wild Card spot, but now if they reach the postseason, they'll be relying heavily on a young core of their to prospects Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony, as well as an aging and injury-battled Trevor Story.

According to the Dimers MLB Futures model, the Red Sox have the lowest probability to win the AL East, now even behind the sub-.500 Baltimore Orioles at just 5.2%.

Winner: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees

They are partying in the Bronx.

Devers has brutalized the Yanks in his career with a .270 AVG and 31 HR in just 119 games. That's more than a 25% probability that he's hit a home run in any given Yankees' game.

And against Gerrit Cole? That's Devers' favorite spot ever, as he's taken the Yanks starter deep 8 times in just 40 at-bats, slugging .975 against Cole, who will be relieved to perhaps never face him again.

Plus, Devers' exit from the AL East has seen the Yankee's division winner probability rise about 1.5%, mirroring the Red Sox's aforementioned drop to the bottom.

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