Why the Las Vegas Aces are a WNBA Championship Value Play

Why the Las Vegas Aces are a WNBA Championship Value Play

The Las Vegas Aces are no strangers to dominance—championships, deep playoff runs, and A’ja Wilson have defined their legacy. But the start of the 2025 season has been uncharacteristically shaky. The Aces have stumbled to a 11–11 record, clinging on to the eighth and final WNBA playoff spot. Key roster losses, chemistry issues, and puzzling defeats to underperforming teams have left Vegas in unfamiliar territory.

But, believe it or not, according to Dimers' Futures Model, now might be the perfect time to buy low on the Aces.

Despite the slow start, Dimers gives Las Vegas a 19.7% chance to win the WNBA title. With sportsbook odds currently around +2000, the implied probability is just 4.8%—suggesting major value. Based on Dimers' model, the fair odds should be closer to +407.

Here are three key reasons why the Aces are primed for a second-half comeback:

Three Reasons Why the Las Vegas Aces Can Win the WNBA Championship

1. A’ja Wilson Dodges a Major Injury

When A’ja Wilson went down with a wrist injury against the Liberty before the All-Star break, it looked like a season-ending blow. Instead, she missed just one game—and returned in dominant fashion. Her 34-point, 16-rebound double-double against the Valkyries was a reminder that the MVP is still the heart of this team. If she stays healthy and locked in, the Aces have the engine they need to make a serious run.

A’JA WILSON TONIGHT 🔥

• 37 POINTS
• 10 REBOUNDS
• 2 BLOCKS
• 15/25 FG
• 34 MINUTES PLAYEDpic.twitter.com/nmHOIRNscI

— Women’s Hoops Network (@WomensHoops_USA) July 17, 2025

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2. Only One Team Is Truly Dominant

The Minnesota Lynx have separated themselves this season, holding a 3.5 game lead over the Liberty and cruising at the top of the standings. But behind them? It’s wide open.

Las Vegas is currently holding on for dear life to the final playoff spot but sits just 4.5 games back of the No. 2 seed. With the Liberty struggling, Caitlin Clark's injury troubles in Indiana, and Phoenix still finding its rhythm, there’s a clear path for Vegas to surge up the standings—if they can string together wins.

3. Jackie Young Has Stepped Up

The Aces lost key contributors in the offseason—Kelsey Plum was traded to Minnesota, Alysha Clark signed with Seattle, and Tiffany Hayes departed after a breakout season from three. But Jackie Young has answered the call. She’s averaging her highest scoring total since 2023 and has become a vital offensive complement to Wilson. If Young continues this trend, the Aces will be tough to stop on both ends of the floor.

It’s rare to see a championship-caliber team with this much betting value, but the time to strike is now. Lock in your Aces futures, enjoy the ride, and as always—bet responsibly.

Not with Dimers Pro? Now is the time to sign up as the second half of the season kicks off! Use code 20BASKETBALL at checkout to get 20% off your first purchase.

Dimers' 2025 WNBA Betting Resources

• WNBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• WNBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• WNBA Player Projection Hub Player prop box score projections
• Best WNBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• WNBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 WNBA Finals?
• WNBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.