Who will win: Cal Raleigh vs. Kyle Schwarber vs. Shohei Ohtani MLB home run race?

The MLB Home Run Leader race is heating up with less than 40 games to play — and what was once a two-man battle has turned into a three-way duel.

Seattle’s Cal Raleigh continues to lead the pack with 47 homers, but Kyle Schwarber has surged into contention with 45, while Shohei Ohtani lurks close behind at 44. The betting markets reflect just how tight this chase has become: Raleigh is favored at -110, with Schwarber at +240 and Ohtani close at +270 on FanDuel.

This isn’t just a battle of raw power — schedules, ballparks, and pressure situations could decide the crown. Here’s how the race looks heading into the stretch run.

Don't forget to check the Dimers Home Run Predictions every day for projections on Raleigh, Ohtani, Aaron Judge and more!

Who Will End the MLB Regular Season as the Home Runs Leader?

Cal Raleigh: The Surprise Front-Runner

Raleigh has held the MLB home run lead for most of the season, surprising many who expected names like Judge, Soto, or Ohtani to be sitting on top. But the Mariners’ history-making catcher has been relentless at the plate, and his 47 bombs at the time of publishing gives him a narrow edge.

The challenge? Seattle has one of the most difficult closing schedules in baseball. Eleven of their final 12 series come against teams .500 or better, and the Mariners are still fighting for a postseason berth. Raleigh won’t have the luxury of soft pitching matchups, and his production is coming under maximum pressure.

Kyle Schwarber: The X-Factor

If there’s anyone built for a late-season home run charge, it’s Schwarber. The Phillies slugger is just two behind Raleigh, and unlike Raleigh, he’ll get to take advantage of six more series at Citizens Bank Park - one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball - with four of those against teams with records below .500.

That said, his schedule isn’t all sunshine. Philadelphia still has road trips to Milwaukee and Los Angeles — two difficult assignments for different reasons. The Brewers’ park has been one of the toughest places to homer in over the past three seasons (per Baseball Savant), while the Dodgers’ has made life tough for even the league’s best hitters with a rotation including his home run leader competition in Shohei Ohtani, as well as Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw.

Still, Schwarber’s ability to go on extended hot streaks makes him dangerous. We’ve seen him hit 10+ homers in a single month before, and if he gets rolling at home, Raleigh’s lead could disappear quickly.

He should be firmly at the top of Dimers' Home Run Predictions alongside Cal Raleigh down the stretch.

Shohei Ohtani: The Wild Card

Never count out Ohtani. The NL MVP favorite sits at 44 homers and has a favorable schedule ahead, including another series in Colorado and multiple matchups with the Diamondbacks and Orioles — all bottom-10 teams in home runs allowed this season.

The key advantage for Ohtani is his explosiveness. One or two multi-homer games could completely flip this race. And with the Dodgers comfortably in playoff position, he may get more favorable pitches to hit down the stretch.

Shohei Ohtani rises to the top of the latest Hitter Power Rankings 👀 pic.twitter.com/STwFjqOzTc

— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2025

Fireworks to Finish?

As if things weren’t dramatic enough, the Dodgers and Mariners close the season with a three-game set in Seattle. If this race is still undecided, we could be looking at a winner-take-all slugfest in the final series of 2025.

Absolute cinema.

Betting Outlook: Value on Schwarber

At this stage, Raleigh deserves to be the favorite — but given the scheduling quirks and Schwarber’s recent surge, +240 on the Phillies’ slugger looks like the value play. He has the power, the ballpark, and the momentum to make this a three-way sprint to the finish.

Ohtani at +270 also holds appeal given his slate of soft pitching matchups, while Raleigh backers will need to trust he can withstand the league’s toughest stretch run.

No matter where you land, this is shaping up to be one of the most compelling home run races in recent memory.

And yes, we know that up until this moment there hasn't been a single mention of Aaron Judge (how disrespectful of us!). Can the captain of the Bronx Bombers - who is currently on 40 home runs for the year and at +2000 odds to win the title - mount a late-season charge? Never say never, but our money is on Schwarber.

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