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Week 4 NFL Bets: Why There's No Value for Monday Night Football Double Header
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
Our recent 3-0 run is proof that sticking to our process - not chasing the narrative - is the path to long-term profitability.
Three Prime Time NFL best bets, three massive hits! However, in this opinion piece, Nick Slade explains why he's sitting out Monday Night Football.
Our commitment to finding value in the player prop market has delivered incredible results, with Jahmyr Gibbs (Receiving Yards), Kyler Murray (Rush Yards), and Jordan Love (Rush Yards) all cashing in for us this past week. That's a perfect 3-for-3 run, and it's all thanks to the cold, hard data behind our proprietary Player Projections Hub.
However, tonight's double-header on Monday Night Football - featuring the Jets at Dolphins, and the Bengals at Broncos - is a harsh reminder of one of our core betting principles: We don't just hand out picks for the sake of it.
To qualify as one of our highly-touted 'Prime Time Best Bets' a player prop needs two things: a significant edge over the lines set by the sports betting sites, and a genuine discrepancy in their expected performance.
And tonight, across both the AFC East rivalry and the AFC inter-conference clash, the data tells a telling, if disappointing, story: No player props value for guys suiting up for Monday Night Football.
Tonight's player props lines are too efficient
The reality is simple: The trading teams at all of the sportsbook apps have, unfortunately, been too thorough in setting their lines for both of tonight's matchups.
Between the Jets-Dolphins in Miami and the Bengals-Broncos in Denver, our NFL Player Projections Hub has been crunching the numbers - factoring in everything from defensive splits and historical matchup data to the expected game scripts below - and simply hasn't been able to unearth a player that profiles as a true "Best Bet."
This can happen with high-profile primetime games. With more eyes on the lines and more public money pouring in, the market quickly sharpens, removing the soft spots we rely on to generate our edge.
The bottom line: Discipline wins
The integrity of our NFL player props series is paramount. Our 3-0 run is proof that sticking to our process - finding the statistical overlay, not chasing the narrative - is the path to long-term profitability.
It takes discipline to sit out a double-header, but if we can't find an edge that genuinely merits a 'Best Bet' designation, then we save our bankroll for where the value truly exists.
Enjoy Monday Night Football. But for our player prop action, we advise you to wait for better opportunities later this week and always gamble responsibly.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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