Commanders vs. Falcons prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win in NFL Week 4, 2025

The Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders will meet in Week 4 of the NFL season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Falcons as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Commanders-Falcons game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Falcons with a win probability of 60%, while the Commanders have 40%."

This gameday Commanders vs. Falcons betting preview builds on my Commanders vs. Falcons prediction that was published earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Commanders vs. Falcons predictions page.

Commanders vs. Falcons Predictions

Since our Commanders-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Falcons a 60% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 23-20.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Commanders and Falcons each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points has a 56% chance of going over.

Commanders vs. Falcons odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Falcons
Spread	+2.5 (-102)	-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+128	-142
Total	o43.5 (-108)	u43.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Commanders vs. Falcons picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Commanders vs. Falcons matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Commanders vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Commanders vs. Falcons?

According to our model, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is most likely to score the first TD in Commanders vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson an 18.5% chance of getting in for six first at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons running back is a 56.9% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	7.7%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	7.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	6.0%

Atlanta Falcons

Player	First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	18.5%
Drake London (WR)	8.3%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	5.7%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	35.4%
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	34.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	28.8%

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	56.9%
Drake London (WR)	31.4%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	22.9%

Commanders vs Falcons player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Falcons. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Commanders-Falcons page now to access every player prop projection.

Commanders vs. Falcons quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Falcons' Michael Penix.

Commanders rushing

Marcus Mariota, Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are projected to be the leading rushers for the Commanders.

Player	Position
Marcus Mariota	QB
Chris Rodriguez	RB
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB

Falcons rushing

Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Michael Penix are expected to lead the Falcons in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Bijan Robinson	RB
Tyler Allgeier	RB
Michael Penix	QB

Commanders receiving

Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are projected to top the receiving yards for the Commanders.

Player	Position
Deebo Samuel	WR
Zach Ertz	TE
Chris Moore	WR
Luke McCaffrey	WR
Jaylin Lane	WR

Falcons receiving

Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Ray-Ray McCloud are projected to lead the Falcons in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Drake London	WR
Darnell Mooney	WR
Kyle Pitts	TE
Bijan Robinson	RB
Ray-Ray McCloud	WR

Commanders vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Falcons and Commanders at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Dimers' full preview of Sunday's Commanders vs. Falcons matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Commanders vs. Falcons picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Falcons, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 4 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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