WNBA Predictions Reveal Five Early Picks to Win WNBA Finals MVP

The WNBA season is flying by and with the 2025 trade deadline in the books, the run to the WNBA Playoffs is on.

Before we know it, the postseason will be here and in its new format, a best-of-seven series will determine the champion. But with our model's best bets to win the WNBA championship already past the point of value, we're looking to steal an edge in another championship series market on the sportsbooks - the WNBA Finals MVP.

With so much time between now and the Finals, virtually everyone on the top teams is a contender, with their odds set to only get shorter once the playoffs hit and teams advance.

Utilizing our WNBA Finals predictions, we can gain a little insight to the teams our model predicts with the best chance to win the WNBA Finals, and our player projections for some more detailed player-level insights, shaping our predictions for who can win WNBA Finals MVP.

In addition to our WNBA Futures predictions, all of our WNBA Best Bets, Best WNBA Props, WNBA Projections Hub, and WNBA Betting Trends are available with a Dimers Pro subscription designed to up your WNBA betting game.

Who are the Favorites to Win WNBA Finals MVP?

These are the Top 10 players favored to win WNBA Finals MVP based on the odds at Bet365 Sportsbook, led by Napheesa Collier of the Lynx and Breanna Stewart of the Liberty.

Five Players Who Could Win WNBA Finals MVP

We know which teams the DimersBOT favors to win the WNBA Finals thanks to our WNBA Futures predictions and since we know the Finals MVP is all but guaranteed to come from the winning team, starting with the most likely champions is key.

Last year's award winner, Jonquel Jones, was a surprise pick based on pre-playoff odds- she was ranked third on the Liberty but defied those odds by dominating each and every night of the series en route to a Liberty victory.

Here are five players we think have the best case:

1. Napheesa Collier (+190)

According to the books, there's no one more likely to win WNBA Finals MVP than the current regular season favorite, Napheesa Collier.

On a revenge tour after last year's Game 5 loss to the Liberty in the Finals, Collier has dazzled as she's led the Lynx to the top overall record in the WNBA, leading all players with 23.5 PPG, two higher than another contender in this list, A'Ja Wilson.

It all makes sense on paper - Collier and the Lynx are playoff-bound and displayed enough to show they're a contender to run right back to the Finals. At 32.0%, they're our second-most likely winner of the championship and regularly project Collier for MVP-level stats at over 20 points 8 rebounds a night on average.

But the odds aren't appealing enough for us. At +190, Collier is effectively the same odds as the Lynx themselves who are +180 to win the championship, and for that our fair odds would be +210. While Collier should find herself right in contention for the award, there's no point risking it when you can get the entire team at basically the same price.

2. Sabrina Ionescu (+700)

While Sabrina Ionescu has lit it up on the court during the regular season and made headlines with her three-point prowess during the All-Star Break and vs. Steph Curry in a special event last season, the WNBA Finals have given her some trouble in back-to-back trips.

For a player as talented as Ionescu and leading a top-tier team throughout the regular season, it seems like a matter of time for it to come together for her on the biggest stage. So, why not this year?

She's averaging a career-high 20 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game to go along with 5.5 assists. If she fine-tunes her usually lethal three-point shooting , she'll be the most dangerous scorer on the court in the playoffs.

A 2-4 record since losing Breanna Stewart to injury doesn't speak volumes for the team's success, but Ionescu's MVP-level presence is undeniable - she has three 30-point games in that span. 

At +700, you're getting substantially better odds than backing the Liberty (33.0%, +170) to win the Finals and since Stewart is without a timetable for return, this could get shorter before the playoffs even arrive.

3. Alyssa Thomas (+1000)

This might be our favorite on the board here. 

In the wake of a total team rebuild in the offseason, Alyssa Thomas has skyrocketed up the WNBA MVP charts for the regular season, now at +280 firmly in second place behind favorite Napheesa Collier, which she has a case for on her own.

After an already Hall of Fame-worthy career in Connecticut, getting off the sinking ship just in time, Thomas joined the Phoenix Mercury this season alongside Satou Sabally, immediately turning the Mercury into a championship contender.

DimersBOT was on this value from the start, identifying the Mercury not once but twice this season as a value play to win the WNBA Finals - they're now +700 after opening at +1800.

The all-time league leader in triple doubles, Thomas contributes all over the court, leading the entire league in assists with 9.1 over Courtney Williams in second at 6.4 and ranks third in rebounds with 8.6 and is a Top 15 scorer in the league.

Thomas led the Sun to six consecutive semifinals appearances, losing twice in the Finals. A championship (and Finals MVP) remain the only thing missing from her trophy case and the Mercury are as dangerous as anyone this season.

Is it finally the year for Alyssa Thomas?

4. A'ja Wilson (+2500)

It's been a tough season for the Aces, yet they find themselves in playoff position and in the midst of their best run of the season.

They remain in the mix, despite overall inconsistency this season and are appropriately at a 4.7% probability to win the championship according to Dimers.

Unlike the previous three teams, the Aces do sit in a tier below the top contenders, though that hasn't kept A'ja Wilson from doing her usual thing - she ranks second in the league in points and rebounds and while she and Chelsea Gray split Finals MVP honors after the Aces two championship titles in 2023 and 2022, Wilson had just as much of a case in 2022.

The problem for the Aces is winning against their potential competition. They lost their two meeting with the Lynx by 30 and 50 points, and lost both of their matchups to the Liberty. Plus, if you think the Aces can pull it off,  you've got better odds at +2900 for them to win the championship, already an edge with our fair odds at +2000.

5. Allisha Gray (+2500)

The Dream are another squad that gave their franchise a little facelift in 2025, adding key inside pieces like Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, opening the door for guard Allisha Gray to take her game to new heights this season.

Posting career highs in points (18.7), rebounds (5.5), assists (3.9) and threes (2.5) per game, she's the sportsbook favorite to win Most Improved Player at +200 odds.

Atlanta is down to +1400 to win the WNBA Finals from +3500 preseason as Gray has helped carry the team to the third-best record in the league, taking advantage of her team's third-best defense.

Besides the Lynx, the Dream are the only team with a Top 5 offense and defense and there's no reason to believe they can't find themselves contending for it all come July.

At +2500, you're getting a much bigger price on Gray than the Dream to win the Finals (+1400) with her primary competition on her team coming from Rhyne Howard (+4000) who's currently sidelined with injury and trails Gray in every category but threes.

Dimers' 2025 WNBA Betting Resources

• WNBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• WNBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• WNBA Player Projection Hub Player prop box score projections
• Best WNBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• WNBA Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 WNBA Finals?
• WNBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Best Sportsbook Promos for the WNBA

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