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US Open Tennis Predictions: Best Tennis Bets in Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Men's Final
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
After a 7-1 run over our past four days at the US Open for the Dimers tennis model, we have your guide to betting on the Men's final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
The 2025 US Open concludes in New York City on Sunday, September 7 with the Men's final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at Flushing Meadows. Throughout the fourth and final Grand Slam of the year we've brought you the latest US Open best bets and tennis predictions.
Sinner and Alcaraz will meet in their third Grand Slam final in 2025, splitting the results with Sinner winning at Wimbledon and Alcaraz at Roland Garros.
The Dimers model has had a productive first half of the tournament, including a 2-0 day on our best High Value bets from Day 3 of the US Open, nailing Jannik Sinner as our top bet on Day 5 and another 2-0 result on Day 6 with bets on Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic and 2-0 again on Day 9 with Sinner and de Minaur before another 2-0 day on Tuesday and 2-0 again on Wednesday before capping off with a 7-1 run over our past four days, coming up a half-game short in Sinner's match.
As of this writing, we're just one matches away from hitting a +2500 pre-tournament outright on Anisimova and putting a cap on a profitable tournament.
Add in Dimers’ biggest betting offering ever—expanded markets, new bet types, and broader sportsbook coverage—and there’s never been a better time to bet on the US Open.
Best Value Bets for US Open Men's Final - Sunday, September 7
The Dimers model identifies spots where the sportsbooks have mispriced the odds, resulting in a betting opportunity with what we call an "edge." The best of these edges are deemed "High Value" bets and are the ones we're focusing on today:
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Match Preview
- Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- Game Spread: Sinner -1.5
- Moneyline Odds: Jannik Sinner -125, Carlos Alcaraz +115
- First Set Odds: Jannik Sinner -125, Carlos Alcaraz +100
Sinner-Alcaraz Best Bet: Under 41.5 Games
- Win Probability: 61.0%
- Edge: 6.9%
- Best Odds: -118 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
This is the only bet with value according to our model, with about fair odds on Jannik Sinner winning the first set. Their previous meeting in a Grand Slam final went 40 games at Wimbledon, while the French Open matchup nearly hit the maximum number of games.
See our full the Men's US Open Final, including Moneyline and Game Totals.
To find value bets, including some moneyline upsets and more for other ATP and WTA tournaments, check out Dimers' Best Tennis Bets every day of the US Open.
Betting the US Open Smartly
Dimers’ “High Value” picks provide bettors with calculated opportunities, but not every match comes with an edge. Keep an eye on our Best Tennis Bets section for all the latest value and picks.
With Flushing Meadows buzzing, the 2025 US Open is primed for drama, and Dimers is giving bettors every tool they need to play it smart.
Responsible Gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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