US Open Tennis: Four Value Plays to Win at Flushing Meadows

The 2025 US Open is upon us, and the tennis world is buzzing with familiar narratives. On the men's side, it's Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz that dominate odds boards, while the women's draw is expected to be a battle between Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff.

But, for the savvy bettor, the real value often lies just outside those top tier players.

This year, a fascinating crop of "under-the-radar" threats on hard courts could easily disrupt the draw and offer some serious payouts.

But first, we want to share news of an exciting update.

US Open Tennis Model Enhancements

As of today, the Dimers data science team has released a new and upgraded version of our ATP, WTA and Grand Slam tennis predictions.

With new markets added, and more bet types able to be analyzed for value, these improvements have been rolled out for Dimers Pro users just in time for the year's US Open at Flushing Meadows.

Below, we break down this year's tournament, with a focus on identifying where the best value bets are lurking.

Immediate Threats to a Sinner vs. Alcaraz Final

As the tennis world buzzes with anticipation of another classic final between World No. 1 Jannik Sinner (37.1% win probability) and World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (a 30.6% chance), Thursday's US Open draw revealed some thrilling potential upsets that could shake things up long before championship Sunday on September 7.

Sinner's path is fraught with early danger. He's likely to face 6'5" Australian Alexei Popyrin in the second round. Popyrin is no stranger to big scalps, having stunned the tennis world by winning the 2024 Montreal Masters, where he took down three top-10 players en route to victory. Popyrin is a different beast on hardcourts and pushed Novak Djokovic (5.6% win probability) to four sets at last year's US Open. If Sinner can navigate that challenge, he'll likely face the big-serving Brit, Jack Draper, in the quarterfinals.

Meanwhile, Alcaraz has a slightly clearer path, but his half of the draw sets up a potential blockbuster semifinal against former World No. 1 Djokovic, with the Serbian currently holding a 5-3 lead in their head-to-head encounters.

With that said, here's a look at four "under-the-radar" players you need to keep on your betting slip.

Value Plays: 2025 US Open Men's Singles Champion

Taylor Fritz (USA): Odds +3000

Fritz, the top-ranked American with a 3.7% winning probability, is a known quantity, currently holding a top-5 ranking. His hard-court game is perfectly suited for the New York courts, built on a blistering serve and a punishing forehand. While he's not a true longshot and won't offer massive odds for an outright win, his value lies in prop bets and his ability to go deep.

It's worth noting that while he reached the final in 2024, it was Sinner who ultimately won the title, defeating Fritz in the championship match. However, that deep run proved Fritz can handle the pressure and go all the way to the final weekend.

We're just going to leave this here... but $5 on Fritz to win the 2025 US Open unlocks $200 in bonus bets for new customers at bet365 sportsbook - even if he gets knocked out in the first round. Just use code "DIMERS" when signing up.

Jack Draper (GB): Odds +2000

The true dark horse on the men's side is Jack Draper, despite being rated as only a 2.5% chance. The British No. 1 has had a sensational season, highlighted by his maiden Masters 1000 title at the Indian Wells Masters. He enters the US Open with a strong 13-3 record on hard courts this year and a career-high ranking inside the top 5.

Draper's game is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. His explosive lefty serve and groundstrokes can dismantle any opponent, and he's already proven he can hang with the elite, most notably with a hard-court win over Carlos Alcaraz earlier this season. If he can stay healthy and focused, his current odds are a steal for a potential semifinal or even final appearance.

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Value Plays: 2025 US Open Women's Singles Champion

Emma Raducanu (GB): Odds +2500

The women's draw is famously unpredictable, making it ripe for savvy bettors, and one player to watch is Emma Raducanu. The 2021 champion is no longer the longshot she once was, but she is still very much undervalued. Raducanu has shown solid form during the North American hard-court swing, reaching the semi-finals of the Citi Open and demonstrating a renewed confidence.

Recent losses to World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati and at Wimbledon were particularly encouraging, as she showcased a resilience and big-match mentality that stretched the Russian on both occasions. As a former champion, she knows how to handle the pressure and is playing with a freedom she hasn't had since her title run.

Amanda Anisimova (USA): Odds +2500

Another American poised for a deep run is Amanda Anisimova. Her season has been a story of a brilliant comeback. After a career-best run to the Wimbledon final, she has climbed back into the top 10. She also claimed a significant hard-court title this season at the Qatar Open.

Anisimova's game is aggressive and fearless, and her two-handed backhand is one of the best on tour. With her newfound confidence and a top-10 ranking, she won't be flying under the radar for long, making now the perfect time to get in on her futures odds. If she can replicate her hard-court form, she is a serious threat to anyone in the draw.

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