Three Reasons Sports Betting Data Says the Seattle Mariners Won the MLB Trade Deadline

Another MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone, signaling the end of July and the beginning of the two-month stretch to the postseason.

That run to the playoffs is precisely why the hot stove was scorching hot the last few days, as contenders upgraded their rosters to improve their World Series chances and the teams on the outs went full fire-sale mode (looking at you, Twins) in an attempt to cut their losses and focus on the future.

As we begin to navigate the post-deadline world, one team stands out above all as the one that won the trade deadline, and in more ways than one.

That team is none other than the Seattle Mariners, who made a statement this summer, planting their flag (or trident, rather) as a postseason contender and putting the sportsbooks on notice.

The Mariners made some big moves, none more notable than reacquiring Diamondbacks' slugger Eugenio Suarez, but that's not the only reason they're the real winners - when analyzing their rise in our World Series and MLB Postseason predictions, some big-time value has opened up for bettors looking to get a piece of Seattle this season.

Here are three reasons Seattle is this year's big winner at the Trade Deadline.

1. Mariners Reunite with 3B Eugenio Suarez

One of the most sought-after players at this year's deadline was the Diamondbacks slugger Eugenio Suarez who's on track for his best season since 2019 when he hit 49 home runs with a .271 AVG and 4.5 WAR.

His addition is a huge boost to a team that already boasts the league's HR leader in Cal Raleigh and added Josh Naylor a week ago - the Mariners now have four players who ranked in the Top 40 in Barrel % across all of MLB on July in the top half of their lineup.

Suarez has clubbed 36 home runs so far this season and when adjusted for AL West ballparks, he'd have as many as 42 in Houston - that's big when considering the Mariners will play a crucial three-game set at Daikin Park in late September and could find themselves playing against the Astros' homefield advantage in the postseason.

Suarez immediately projects as one of our Top HR hitters, landing at 5th overall in our HR projections on the first day after the deadline, netting a  19.5% HR probability, behind only Raleigh at 21.7% in their game vs. the Rangers on Friday night.

2. Seattle Sees Postseason Chances Skyrocket

If the Mariners front office uses Dimers.com, then they'll love what they see on the day after the trade deadline.

Let's take a quick look back - on June 11th, the Dimers model gave the Mariners just a 3.8% probability to win the division. Why June 11th? That was the last time Seattle was under .500.

DimersBOT meant no disrespect to the M's - we simply were all Astros, with a 46.2% probability, followed by a Rangers team our model believed was just experiencing some hiccups. Since then, the Astros have pushed to a Top 5 record in MLB, while the Rangers have continued to hover around .500. That's opened up an opportunity for Seattle, which they've seized.

Seattle has climbed way up, sitting just four games back of Houston with two months to go. Now, Houston sits at 35.4% to win the division and Seattle at 30.6%. But the big difference is in the value - Houston is priced at -210 which implies 67.7% while Seattle has odds of +270 at BetMGM, implying just a 27.0% probability. 

They've passed their division rival in the AL Pennant race at 13.0% over Houston at 9.8%.

And to win it all? That's at 5.8% for Seattle to claim the World Series crown, for fair odds of +1600, up from barely 1.0% back on June 11. Get 'em at +1800 on BetMGM for a little edge.

3. Rangers Make the Wrong Moves, Open Door Wider for Mariners

A head-scratcher deadline for the third team that could be considered a contender for the postseason out of the AL West.

The Rangers aren't a bad team by any means, but they have not played to their standard, especially after winning the World Series just two years ago, due in large part to their offensive output.

Of the teams in the AL Wild Card race that are .500 or better, the Rangers have scored the second-fewest runs, ahead of only Cleveland. They're bottom-five in the AL in runs scored, even with their recent surge that saw them tally the second-most runs in July, behind the likes of the Orioles, A's and Angels - all sub-.500 teams who should miss the playoffs. 

They added a trio of pitchers, highlighted by the D-Backs' Merrill Kelly, but pitching hasn't been an issue - no one has allowed fewer runs in all of MLB than Texas - the only team that's given up less than 400 runs.

Add on that they have a 4-game set vs. the Mariners this weekend, they could suddenly find themselves right back down to .500 and well back of the third wild card spot.

Seattle will still need to close it out in the WC race if they don't steal away the AL West, but the Rangers didn't make a move convincing enough to put the pressure on Seattle.

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