OPINION: Three Overrated Player Props to Bet On

There's nothing like opening up your favorite betting site, checking odds, and picking your favorite prop to bet on. But what if I said that some of the most common props bettors use everyday are extremely overrated? Not because they aren’t fun to play, but because the only way to win that bet is exactly one outcome to happen.

Let’s break down three overrated player props to bet on.

The Three Most Overrated Player Props to Bet On

1. Home Runs

No, this intern is not out of his mind. Homers are so fun to play, and if you’re on social media it seems like once a week someone cashes a crazy +80000 MLB parlay. Although, the vast majority of times home run bets are nothing but a lottery ticket which the chances of winning - and being a long-term profitable bettor - are slim. Let’s face it, the only way to win that prop bet is to either hit a ball into the stands or complete an inside the park home run which is even harder. Other factors play a part in hitting a home run too. Factors like wind, temperature, elevation, pitcher the batter is facing, and more can make what someone thinks is an easy home run into a headache.

MORE: Meet the Dimers Summer Interns

To add fuel to the fire, sports betting apps over the past few seasons have nuked home run odds down to the bare bones. By Labor Day, Cal Raleigh will be -100 to go yard. If value was better maybe this is a different conversation, but combine too many factors along with horrible odds and you have a prop you should steer clear of. 

2. The Over on Passing QB Touchdowns

One of the most deceiving props in sports betting is quarterback Passing TDs, specifically the over. I can’t count how many times I’ve said or heard “over 1.5 passing TDs? Too easy” and after the game I’m trying to figure out what happened. This prop is so overrated because every position group on defense is faster than ever in both college football and NFL. Combine that with the modern quarterback today who can run around, over passing touchdowns aren’t easy. Garbage time can sometimes help secure the win but the prop is usually won or lost in a close game.

Nothing will ruin your Saturday or Sunday more when you need one more passing touchdown to win and a quarterback throws the game ending interception. It’s the sad reality of betting the over.

The Golden State Valkyries are made up of expansion draft players who were mostly second options in their careers.

They have no 2025 draft picks on the active roster.

And yet, they lead the WNBA in upsets as the DimersBOT's most profitable team. 🤑https://t.co/TUwTlpjVmT

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 2, 2025

3. The Over on Quarterback Rushing Yards

Even though this prop is one of my favorites to bet, it’s still overrated. This one can take you for a rollercoaster where you lose by the winning team taking a knee. This last prop bet is overrated because unless the QB you choose is over on his prediction by 10+ yards, it’s not over until the game is over. 

In college, a QB sack is included in rushing yards. It’s so easy to see a scrambling QB in college with an O/U of 60.5 rushing and assume the over. If the QB is sacked a few times, you could easily be sitting at -12 rushing yards and now you’re playing catch up to win your prop.

JOIN PRO: Get access to 1000s of betting insights with Dimers Pro

In the NFL, teams respect other and will take a knee before halftime if too far away to score or at the end of the game kneel 3 straight plays to run the clock out. I’ve been on some terrible bad beats and even one time reached out to customer support over QB rushing yards to see if I really lost because a QB took one extra step on a kneel down. 

This prop is bad news for sports bettors, from athletic defenses to kneel downs the last leg of a great parlay or straight bet will always be on notice. 

Do you agree with our summer intern? Let us know if he's on the money, or way off the mark by following Dimers on X, or by jumping into the Dimers Pro Discord!

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.