The Over/Under Paradox with Prospector Sam

It’s time to confront one of the most serious issues in gambling, particularly as it relates to the average degenerate.

That issue, simply put, is the preference towards betting “overs.”

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We’ve all seen it. People metaphorically yelling into the Twitter abyss about being “Team Over” and how much more fun it is to be the over on a total than the under. I myself fall into the same trap some days, especially on certain sports where I want to skew towards high scoring games rather than low scoring ones for my own viewing enjoyment.

That said, it’s probably one of the most blatant failures and mental biases in the sports gambling world. Not only are the books aware that they can set certain totals slightly higher to decrease the likelihood of the over hitting without pushing bettors away, but lines move with the volume of bets which naturally get pushed upward as more people bet overs. You may think it’s an exaggeration, but I see it every day. For example, if I want to bet an over on a soccer game, I intentionally put the bet in the night before because that value gets squeezed to death on game day when all of the gamblers have started to focus on the current slate.

It’s also not hard to understand why people skew towards overs. On an extremely basic level, rooting for a game to be boring or a player to struggle isn’t all that fun. Even though we’re focused on gambling, we also love sports and our preference is (usually) to watch something exciting. On top of that, there are billions of psychological articles and studies (yeah, I do my research) on how people are generally optimistic and have a harder time planning for negative outcomes. Basically, we’re mentally programmed to lean towards positive results, which means overs for the purposes of this article.

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With all that in mind, it’s time to introduce “The Over/Under Paradox,” which I’ll sum up as follows:

Sometimes bad strategies still make for good gambling.

Based on the lead up, you might have expected me to advocate for betting more unders and removing your inherent bias. Not so fast. For one, I’m not here to tell anyone what to do or how to gamble, and I also know that that’s just not a likely outcome. People want to bet overs and they’re the more enjoyable side to be on a lot of the time, so, rather than claiming it would be smart to bet only unders and suck up some minimal value, it’s probably better to find a way to use our self interests wisely.

How can we do that without losing money? Well, I think there are a few easy justifications for leaning towards our preferred bet. First, let’s talk bet selection. One of the beauties of the modern world of sport betting is that there are a million things to bet on every day. Hell, every single game has 100 different wagers to choose from, which gives us tons of ways to attack and make a profit. And, knowing you can’t bet all of those choices, why not decide to bet the ones you think have value on the over rather than the under. I admittedly do this a lot when selecting soccer games when there are a ton of matchups; with too many options and limited time, I have no problem focusing on the games where I’ve found value in the over rather than the under. There’s nothing wrong with that approach, so long as you don’t sacrifice hugely valuable under bets for the sake of betting overs.

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The second reason, which I think holds a lot of weight, is that you’re going to be better at finding value in places where your interests align with your bets. Think of it like this; you’re generally better at things you enjoy doing. And, if you enjoy betting overs way more than you enjoy betting unders, you’ll likely be better at finding value in overs. Rather than trying to fit a square peg into a round hole just to increase your under bet volume, you may simply be smarter to lean into your tendency, so long as you don’t force it by making bad bets. That thought process may not be the best approach as it relates to the book’s advantage of knowing the public’s bias on total bets, but it should at least negate that advantage. And, if you’re smart, you can learn to bet overs to maximize value. As I mentioned before, I’ve learned to bet soccer totals early when I want the over knowing how lines tend to move, and getting smart on how to get the best price out of your over bets could be crucial to making money

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Lastly, remember that sports bettin is MEANT TO BE FUN. To be clear, we’re all here to make money and I’m not gonna go around claiming that you shouldn’t care if your bets hit or not. But, if you were only focusing on monetary return, you’d likely be just as well off sticking your dollars in an index fund and walking away. We gamble on sports because we like it, and there’s no shame in that fact. So, if you like betting overs more, embrace it. Learn how to bet them well and enjoy the hell out of doing it, because that’s part of the reason for betting on sports.

To sum things up, the books clearly have an upper hand against gamblers when it comes to totals. Most people want to bet overs, and it gives them room to take more money off of us. If you like betting unders, then good for you (it’s probably going to have a bit of value for you on the whole). But choosing to focus on overs, even if it’s got some obvious shortcomings, can still be an effective strategy if you use it correctly. Should you take this and go on every over? No, please don’t do that. But you can acknowledge your bias and use it to your advantage, which is what this article is all about.