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Lightning vs. Penguins Prediction: Tampa Bay Predicted to Win Sunday's NHL Matchup [1/12/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert prediction for Sunday's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins matchup.
NHL action continues on Sunday at 5:00PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning lock horns with the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Tampa Bay-Pittsburgh game," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Lightning with a win probability of 58%, while the Penguins have 42%."
For further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lightning vs. Penguins predictions page.
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Lightning vs. Penguins Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
Sunday's action between the Penguins and Lightning at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 5:00PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
- Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
- Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
Dimers.com's full preview of Sunday's Lightning vs. Penguins matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Lightning vs. Penguins Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Puck Line?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL game between the Lightning and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 58% chance of defeating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Lightning vs. Penguins Odds
We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+170) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Moneyline | -150 | +126 |
| Total | o6.5 (-120) | u6.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Penguins Picks
Our model's biggest edge in today's Lightning vs. Penguins matchup is on the puck line.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the latest odds, reveal the best NHL picks for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Lightning vs. Penguins Player Props
Who will score the first goal in Lightning vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Tampa Bay's Brayden Point is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Point an 8.9% chance of scoring the first goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the Lightning star is a 45.4% chance of registering an anytime goal.
First Goal Scorer Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 8.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.4% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 7.5% |
| Sidney Crosby | 7.5% |
| Rickard Rakell | 6.3% |
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 45.4% |
| Jake Guentzel | 39.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 34.8% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 38.5% |
| Sidney Crosby | 34.9% |
| Rickard Rakell | 34.2% |
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Keep up with the latest NHL betting news, NHL best bets and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the most up-to-date predictions for the Stanley Cup title.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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