Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 1, 2025

The Atlanta Falcons will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 1 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Buccaneers-Falcons game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Buccaneers with a win probability of 59%, while the Falcons have 41%."

This updated Buccaneers vs. Falcons betting preview builds on my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction that was posted earlier in the week.

For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions page.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Predictions

Since our Buccaneers-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Buccaneers and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Buccaneers a 59% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-21.

According to our model, the Buccaneers (-1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Buccaneers	Falcons
Spread	-1.5 (+100)	+1.5 (-118)
Moneyline	-108	-105
Total	o47.5 (-110)	u47.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season, with today's best NFL bets populating now.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Falcons?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 1, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is most likely to score the first touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 16.4% chance of getting in for six first at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons running back is a 58.4% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Bucky Irving (RB)	13.4%
Mike Evans (WR)	10.2%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	6.4%

Atlanta Falcons

Player	First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	16.4%
Drake London (WR)	8.3%
Michael Penix (QB)	4.7%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bucky Irving (RB)	51.5%
Mike Evans (WR)	42.5%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	29.3%

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	58.4%
Drake London (WR)	35.8%
Michael Penix (QB)	22.2%

For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 1 touchdown scorer predictions

Buccaneers vs Falcons player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Falcons. For more, check out today's highest-probability NFL prop bets.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Buccaneers-Falcons page now to access every player prop projection.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected to throw for more yards than the Falcons' Michael Penix.

Buccaneers rushing

Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Baker Mayfield are projected to be the leading rushers for the Buccaneers.

Player	Position
Bucky Irving	RB
Rachaad White	RB
Baker Mayfield	QB

Falcons rushing

Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Michael Penix are expected to lead the Falcons in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Bijan Robinson	RB
Tyler Allgeier	RB
Michael Penix	QB

Buccaneers receiving

Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard and Bucky Irving are projected to top the receiving yards for the Buccaneers.

Player	Position
Mike Evans	WR
Emeka Egbuka	WR
Cade Otton	TE
Sterling Shepard	WR
Bucky Irving	RB

Falcons receiving

Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud, Bijan Robinson and KhaDarel Hodge are projected to lead the Falcons in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Drake London	WR
Kyle Pitts	TE
Ray-Ray McCloud	WR
Bijan Robinson	RB
KhaDarel Hodge	WR

Bucs vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Falcons and Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Dimers.com's in-depth preview of this week's Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Bucs vs. Falcons picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Buccaneers, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 1 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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