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Super Bowl LVI - Prospector Sam's Picks and Props
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Six months without football. I can’t believe it’s true, but come Monday morning there won’t be any real games until College Football near the end of August. And, while I am sad, I have to admit that it’s probably a good thing that we have some time off from watching and gambling on the most glorious of American sports.
Why do I say that? Well, if I’m being honest, football absolutely dominates my weekends in the Fall and Winter and I sacrifice other activities and time spent with real people to sit my ass in front of the TV and gamble my face off. Is it a blast? Absolutely, and I wouldn’t trade it for the world. But it’s also probably good to have some time where I can free myself from the grips of my screen for the weekend (especially because my real job also involves a screen) to get outside and get some real human interaction.
So, while we wish it wasn’t the end, let’s appreciate the positives here and also take an opportunity to gamble one last time to end the season on a high note. It only feels right.
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Super Bowl LVI: Rams vs. Bengals
Best Super Bowl Pick
⛏️ Rams moneyline (-198 with FanDuel Sportsbook)
It might be a bit of a weak move to go with the -200 ML, but betting is about taking the right amount of risk and giving up 4.5 points just doesn’t feel intelligent. To start, I think the Rams are an all around better team. The offensive weapons for these two teams are close to even in my opinion, but the gap in defensive quality will make a difference and the Rams have a guy named Aaron Donald. On top of that, it’s hard not to be alarmed by the Bengals win over KC. Sure, they made the impressive and improbable comeback, but it took a lot of mistakes from the Chiefs to get there including Andy Reid refusing to run the ball despite the Bengals dropping 7 or 8 into coverage on almost every play. The Rams may be pass dominant but I don’t think they’ll fall into the same trap, and the home field advantage should also give them a boost like it did last year in Tampa. So long as Sean McVay doesnt fuck things up by doing something stupid (which, unfortunately, is not unrealistic) I think the Rams lift the Lombardi Trophy. Stay safe and take the ML.
Best Super Bowl Props
⛏️ Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 5.5 Receptions (+110)
The Rams have gotten the best out of OBJ in the playoffs, and it’s made a massive difference for them. Not only does it free up a little space for Kupp since teams have to respect another threat, but succeeding in the task of “keeping Odell motivated” is much easier said than done when it comes to a guy who’s been run out of town by multiple teams. How have they done it? Well, OBJ needs to feel needed, and they’ve made a point of targeting him early in the game to get him going. It may be a bit more “storyline/narrative” based then pure technical analysis, but I expect the Rams to keep feeding him the ball, especially against a Bengals secondary that is liable to get torched through the air. Over 5.5 is fairly high for him, but the Bengals will have no choice but to focus more on Kupp and it should create solid 1 on 1 matches for Beckham. Take the over on some nice plus odds.
⛏️ Mixon UNDER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
I absolutely love everything about this bet. Really, the only concern would be Mixon ripping off one big run that ruins it, but overall this number seems way too high. Mixon has hit this number in 7 of the Bengals 20 games this year, including 2 of the last 8, and he’s facing a Rams defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards conceded per game. Look no further than the playoffs for more confidence, where the Rams have conceded 54 YPG rushing. Mixon will get his touches but Aaron Donald swallows up backs like a black hole and the Bengals won’t run as much if they get behind (which I expect). Take Mixon to have a slower night, and finish somewhere in the 40s or 50s
Super Bowl Same Game Parlay
Looking to group together Prospector Sam's picks (or your own) into a Same Game Parlay for Sunday's big game? FanDuel Sportsbook is the place to do it!
- ⛏️ LA Rams moneyline
- ⛏️ OBJ o61.5 receiving yards*
- ⛏️ Mixon u63.5 rushing yards
- 💰 Parlay Odds: +362**
*You're unable to add total receptions to a same game parlay, but Sam is happy to substitute this leg for OBJ's yards!
**Parlay odds subject to change in the lead up to the game.
Super Bowl LVI Betting Info
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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