Padres vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/18/2025]

The New York Mets will square off with the San Diego Padres in MLB action at Citi Field on Thursday, commencing at 1:10PM ET.

Jonah Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, while the Padres are going with Randy Vásquez (5-6, 3.72 ERA).

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Mets as the most likely winner of today's game.

For further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Padres vs. Mets predictions page.

Mets vs. Padres prediction: Who will win, cover the run line?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Padres and Mets 10,000 times as part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 57% chance of defeating the Padres.

According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9 runs has a 51% chance of going over.

Padres vs. Mets odds [9/18/2025]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Padres	Mets
Run Line	+1.5 (-172)	-1.5 (+145)
Moneyline	+122	-140
Total	o9 (-115)	u9 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Padres vs. Mets picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Padres vs. Mets matchup is on the over/under.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best MLB picks and MLB best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Calling Our Shot's best bets video

Calling Our Shot produces daily MLB betting content, including the latest free picks featured below.

Padres vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Padres at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 1:10PM ET.

• Who: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
• Date: Thursday, September 18, 2025
• Time: 1:10PM ET/10:10AM PT
• Venue: Citi Field

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Thursday's Padres vs. Mets matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Padres vs. Mets picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Padres on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Padres vs. Mets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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