Ronald Acuna Jr. Rejoins Atlanta Braves Lineup as Postseason Outlook on the Rise

Are the Atlanta Braves a sleeping giant this MLB season?

After a rocky 0-7 start and 5-13 record after the first three weeks, they've slowly turned their season around as we approach the end of the second month.

They're at 24-25 and third in the NL East. The Phillies have taken a sizable 7.5-game lead in the division, but they're fresh off a stretch on beating up on last place teams, and while the Braves haven't been world beaters, they've chipped away at their deficit with some quality wins, leading to some intriguing data in our MLB Predictions.

Now, they get 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. back for a major weekend showdown vs. the San Diego Padres, one that could push them over .500 if they take the series.

The Phillies have taken a hit to their reliever corps with the suspension of reliever Jose Alvarado that our model believes will hurt them long-term - he'll miss 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason. With a decision in 7 of their 9 1-run victories, he's critical to their ability to close out close games. The Mets have been good but have yet to burst through the ceiling with their superpowered lineup, leaving the door open for Atlanta.

Let's dig in to our Dimers Pro data to see how the Braves' postseason chances shake out.

Braves Postseason Outlook

When the Braves fell behind 0-7 early in the season, many were casting doubt on their postseason outlook, but not the DimersBOT.

Slumps and streaks are a part of MLB with a long 162-game season and not overreacting to small sample sizes is a big part of projecting season-long results. We highlighted the value on Atlanta at +850 to win the NL after the first month of the season where their value is currently holding strong.

At 3.5 games back of the Padres for a Wild Card spot, they can do some big damage this weekend when they host the Friars.

Two weeks ago, we had the Braves at 71.8% to reach the Wild Card round, either as one of three wild cards or the lowest-seeded NL division winner. Two weeks later and that has steamed up by 2.3%, just shy of a 75.0% probability of making the postseason. The books' odds of -125 imply a 55.6% probability, meaning we are much higher on Atlanta's prospects.

The top three contenders in the NL East are all plus-money to win the division, with the Braves at +450 and 23.4%. After this Padres series, they get a crack at the Phillies, with the heart of their rotation scheduled to start.

But all eyes are on their mid-June stretch - three games vs. the Rockies and three against Miami, as well as seven games vs. the Mets and three vs. the Phillies in a 16-day span. That stretch is where this division will truly take shape and come July, we'll know who will be competing for this division in the back half.

Dimers' Projections for Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Debut

The Braves' big bats are heating up. Over the past 15 days, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna are hitting a collective .294 with 9 home runs, and now they welcome back their best player, Ronald Acuna Jr.

Acuna Jr. put up 4 HR and 16 stolen bases in 49 games before getting hurt last year, one season removed from his 41 HR, 73 SB season that won him the NL MVP.

In 15 at-bats in his rehab games, Acuna Jr. hit a pair of home runs, drew 7 walks and struck out just twice. He looks primed to rejoin and juice up this Braves lineup. 

Here's how the Dimers model projects his return, straight frrm the Dimers Pro MLB Hitter Hub:

• To Get a Hit - 67.7%
• To Get 2+ Hits - 26.1%
• Record an RBI - 32.2%
• To Hit a HR - 16.8%

Not an explosive debut, but it may take a few games for him to get back up to big league speed and we expect these probabilities to start creeping up over the weekend.

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