Prospector Sam's Pure Gold – Super Bowl LV and English Premier League Picks

Every once in a while, its good to take stock of where you are. I’m not sure why this week feels like the right one to do it, but when I sat down to write that’s what hit me the most. Might as well give it a crack.

It’s been about two and a half months since this character was created and I started writing for Dimers. In that time, I’ve also moved to a new city, started a new job, and sent my first tweet (all of equal importance in a man’s life). And here I am, both excited about where things are but also completely unsure of where things are going. I guess that’s the world these days.

Hello world. Nobody asked for this, but I will now be spouting my hot takes and stirring the pot in real time! Look out for comments on games I’m watching or betting here

— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) December 17, 2020

Dimers has given me everything I could want from a volunteer writing gig. I get to sit down every week and publish at least one piece that ends up on a legitimate website filled with tons of sports information and knowledge. I’m not exaggerating at all when I say I still check Dimers every ten minutes after I send in an article because I’m excited when I see my work put up on their page. I have absolutely no writing background and no connections in the media or sports world whatsoever, so the fact that I ended up here is the ultimate underdog story. I’ve also been pretty happy with how this project has gone.

Everyone at Dimers has been great to work with. I’ve written some pieces that I think were at least above average for a guy sitting hungover in his room, trying to toe the line between serious gambling information and humor. And I’ve even managed to develop a few consistent readers from twitter and other outreach. Not a bad place to be, if we’re being honest.

At the same time, I always want to get better. And the grind in this space is absolutely brutal some days. Sports media is trending towards podcasts and video, and getting people to try to read my work can feel like pulling teeth (yes, I’m a dumbass for getting into writing at a time when newspapers are dying, tell me something I don’t know).

Differentiating yourself in this space is incredibly difficult too. There are a million different options from ESPN to Barstool to independent podcasts, so getting people to look at you in stead of everyone else ain’t as easy as I’d like (not that I’m surprised). I try my best to provide a different angle and unique content that you wont find anywhere else, but at the end of the day it’s tough to get people to look at the cartoon Prospector screaming for clicks and attention.

Now, this isn’t meant to be some oblivious sob story or cry for pity. I love getting to do what I do here, and I write for no reason other than because I love it (literally, I do this for free and I was doing it for free before Dimers). I also understand that I’ve been here for 90 days and its probably going to take years of hard work to get where I (and Dimers, if I had to guess) want to be. But I’m nothing if not honest, and those challenges are part of the story too.

So, at the end of the day, where are we? Well, first and foremost, things are good. I haven’t been fired yet, I’ve established a pretty solid writing flow and written some pieces I’m proud of, and I’ve even managed to gather 400 twitter followers (about .000000005% of the world population! Aren’t you proud mom?).

At the same time, I’m pushing for more. I want to get bigger, and I want to do it with Dimers. These guys gave me a shot that I will be forever grateful for, and I think they have the tools to be a big deal in the sports gambling space. How do I get there? For one, I keep writing and coming up with good ideas.

That’s my value at the end of the day, and I can’t let up on that. I also have to keep pushing my name, and Dimers, on every platform I can. This is one of those symbiotic relationships like those birds that clean crocodiles’ teeth, and the more eyeballs that see us the bigger we both get. And that’s also where anyone who reads my work come in. I’m terrible at asking people for help, but I do need it from all of you. Share this stuff. Engage on social media.

Hell, buy a fucking billboard if you want. But word of mouth and having people vouch for me is what’s going to grow this whole thing. So if you’re so inclined, do what you can please. I will be forever grateful.

Now, after all that serious talk, on to the nuggets! ⤵️

⛏️ Soccer right now is tough for me, so just cut me a little slack. Tottenham normally keep me about one or two steps away from the ledge at any given time, but these days I’m hanging off the edge with my feet dangling like one of those crazy people who makes daredevil youtube videos

⛏️ Alright, so let’s start with Everton losing at home to Newcastle. I don’t think anyone saw that one coming, but we’re starting to get closer to that desperation period where teams near the bottom kick it into another gear for survival. The Prem never disappoints (generally speaking, of course).

⛏️ My “value” bet on the Palace-Wolves over was a bad call. No wonder it was +140, neither of these teams looked like they had any hope of scoring.

⛏️ But we ended up a bit above even with the Fulham-West Brom over, so no harm no foul I suppose.

⛏️ There really is no feeling like hitting a long shot bet. Calling the tie in Arsenal-United felt damn good, and at +240 the payoff was sweet. I wasn’t totally on point with the analysis, but, at the end of the day, a win is a win and I was right that neither side had the composure to separate.

⛏️ And then ANOTHER positive-odds win with Villa beating the Saints. Three in one day, on 4 picks. They don’t call me a savant for nothing (actually, nobody calls me a savant, but oh well)

⛏️ And I woke up to check another box with the Chelsea-Burnley under. *yawn*, what can I say, I’m just that good.

⛏️ On the other hand, Chelsea winning was sad. They were just starting to get the point of pure hopelessness, and dropping points to Burnley would have been the knockout blow.

⛏️ I really hope Leeds never change, and never get relegated. That Leicester matchup was a blast to watch, and good for them. They may lose games from bad defending, but they take risks and sometimes it pays off. A well earned win over a top 4 side.

⛏️ Liverpool have apparently decided to kick it into gear again (Note: this line was written before Wednesday). West Ham were always a mid table side, but they were pretty badly outclassed in that one. Always happy to see them lose, but less so against Liverpool.

⛏️ Tottenham played a match. Well, technically they played, but I’m not sure what you call that performance. It felt more like they were just watching than actually playing. Nothing makes you feel the pain of Tottenham fandom like getting dominated by Brighton I guess.

⛏️ Arsenal saw my pain, and jumped in to help. How valiant of them. And wow, what a nightmare. They were honestly the much better side the whole first half until Luiz got sent off. Was it harsh? Sure. But I thought he clipped him and, if he did, its 100% a red. Leno getting sent off on a hilarious hand ball was the icing on the cake.

⛏️ Man, I cant believe I didn’t cash that West Brom bet. If you told me they’d be winning at half time, I would have said there was no Sheffield could come back. But that Baggies’ defense is an absolute nightmare, and there’s no way to sugar coat it. Sheffield have a lot of work to do to have a prayer at staying up, but credit to them for giving it a shot.

⛏️ That United game was..... yeah, I don’t know. That’s one way to pump up your goal difference.

⛏️ City can’t be broken right now. They aren’t falling for trap games, and are still winning the big ones. It’s going to take a back-breaking loss to derail them.

⛏️ Nailed that easy Leicester win. You can thank me by showering me with love.

⛏️ Wait, West Ham might actually be good? Which is a shocking, and depressing, thing to say for a Spurs fan.

⛏️ Watching Brighton beat Liverpool made me feel slightly better, but only slightly. Great to see those scumbags lose, but it doesn’t do much to get me out of the deep hole of Tottenham depression I live in

⛏️ And then Spurs dug me even deeper into the pit of despair against Chelsea. Why not, right? This team has tortured me for over a decade, no reason to stop now.

⛏️ Deep breath...... and we move on

⛏️ Let’s talk golf for a second. Yes, I know I don’t mention it here often but I follow golf closely (and even play a bit). The reason I don’t discuss it more is because I’ve never loved betting on golf. I’m like a child, and I need immediate gratification. Betting on a four-day event is too slow for me.

⛏️ The talking point this week was obviously Patrick Reed. I got into a twitter debate (the most sophisticated of debates) as to whether he deserved the shit he was getting for his rules kerfuffle. I think yes, because everything in his past shows me he deserves no benefit of the doubt and he will cheat given the opportunity. But maybe I’m just a cynical fuck. Either way, it sucks seeing him win.

⛏️ Ok, on to college basketball.

⛏️ Gonzaga, still good. Baylor, still good. It’s a shame we have no idea how good Gonzaga is though. Their pre conference wins (Kansas, WVU, Iowa, UVA) speak for themselves, but the string of WCC games tells me nothing any more. I’ve basically tuned them out at this point.

⛏️ The SEC-Big 12 matchups were fun, especially Alabama vs Oklahoma. With all of the close games, the only thing I’m sure of now is that there is a TON of parity this year aside from those top two.

⛏️ And after a season where there was basically no excitement or upsets in CFB, its great to have college basketball again. This is so much better for the casual fan.

⛏️ If anyone wants to explain Purdue to me, I would really appreciate. I’ve tried dipping my toes in the water on some of their games, but they are really hard to figure out. Beat Minnesota, then come right back lose to Maryland.

⛏️ Houston is another tough one to figure out. They’re a lot like Gonzaga with no real competition in the AAC, but their only “big” win was against Texas Tech. They could be an absolute wild card come tournament time. (Edit: that Wednesday night loss to ECU did not inspire confidence)

⛏️ The only NBA headline I saw much of was LeBron fighting with a fan in Atlanta. Man, does he suck. Sure, that woman was an obnoxious, self-absorbed idiot, but try to be a little less soft. Getting fans thrown out of a game never looks good.

And with that, on to the picks! ⤵️

🏈 Super Bowl 🏆

 

Line: Yup, you are getting both the line and the total for this game, because I would not be doing my job if I gave you just one pick on the Super Bowl. Props aren’t my thing, but I did give a few to Dimers for a short write up they asked all of the content producers to send, so if you want my thoughts on those go check out The Sharps' Side. I would suggest, maybe, going with somebody a bit more seasoned in that area than me though.

Back to the actual game, this all comes down to one crucial factor for me. And that factor is this: the Chiefs have weapons that you just don’t see anywhere else. During the regular season this team looked a bit sluggish and struggled to pull away in games they should have won comfortably.

But, at the end of the day, they won them. And more importantly, they kicked it into gear when it mattered most, the playoffs. The AFC Championship was barely even a contest, and this offense has tools that are impossible to prepare for, because no previous opponent or scout team can replicate them.

Tyreek Hill is an absolute nightmare, a pass catching tight end like Kelce is an impossible matchup, and the strings are being pulled by a QB who is better than anyone else in the league right now. The Bucs defense will put up more of a fight than Buffalo, but its just hard for me to imagine they contain this offense (especially because their pass defense actually gives up MORE YPG on the season than Buffalo).

On the other side, Tom Brady has won in these playoffs, but it hasn’t been particularly impressive. While this team has made up for turnovers against the Packers and Redskins, I don’t think they will have the same luxury against the Chiefs. Brady will need to play a flawless game, and also be able to manage the clock to keep the Chiefs off balance. The latter is something he is absolutely capable of.

Brady knows that he has to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field because getting them into a rhythm and tiring out his defense will be a killer for them. I’m confident he’ll find ways to manage the clock to help with that. But at the same time, he has to execute the passing game perfectly to keep them moving down the field, and his recent performances haven’t shown me that he has that in him any more. Will the Bucs get blown out of the water? Probably not. But the Chiefs have a better team overall, and I don’t think Tampa Bay has the guns to stick with Kansas City over 60 minutes.

💰 Pick: Chiefs -3

Total: I previewed this pick a bit with my line, but I like the under in this game. Now, if you recall, I made the mistake of picking the under in the AFC championship, and that failed miserably. Why? Well, it was two major issues. One was that the Bills defense was a mess and couldn’t stop KC at all.

The other was that the Bills completely ignored the running game and tried to win by out-scoring the Chiefs. They couldn’t do it (shocker), and screwed the under in the process. Brady may not be the player he was 10 years ago, but his brain is still one of the best (I guess all those QB protection rules help with the CTE issue).

I could be wrong, but I really doubt he wants to try to get into the same type of battle the Bills did against Kansas City. Their offense just isn’t as good, and forcing your defense to go out on short rest drive after drive is a huge mistake when trying to hold the Chiefs.

That’s why I expect that Brady to use the running game, slow down the speed of play, and rely on his patented 4-5 yard passing gains to slog down the field. They will, at times, speed up their play to keep the Chiefs on their toes, but it wont be a consistent approach.

On top of that, the Bucs have a better overall defense than the Bills did. Their pass defense is a huge problem, ranking 21^st in YPG on the year, but their run defense is 1^st. The Chiefs aren’t necessarily a run-reliant team, and you’d rather have a strong pass defense against Mahomes, but there is still value to being able to make teams one dimensional.

Dropped passes or solid coverage will force some long distance third downs, and I think the Bucs will be able to get off the field more than the Bills could. While they won’t be keeping Mahomes off the board, I expect that they will show a bit more life than in this game, and keep Mahomes from running up the score too much. And at 56.5 for the Total, the number is just too high for me.

💰 Pick: Under 56.5

⚽ Premier League

 

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Lets skip the fluff and get right to my defining stat for this game; these teams are 3^rd and 5^th, respectively, in goals against this year. It doesn’t take a genius to see where I’m going, but I’ll provide a little more color before we get there. Both sides are solid defensively, but lack cutting edge in front of the goal. Arsenal’s 27 goals in 22 League games is a particularly staggering number, while Villa are generally inconsistent. On top of that, both of these teams are right on the precipice of being relevant for European spots, and lost points in this game could be the difference at the end of the year. That suggests a tight game to me, and I think we see a bit less open play and a bit more emphasis on solid defending. The value here is also great. I like this to be a low scoring game regardless of the odds, but at +122 for under 2.5 you’re pulling a solid payout for two teams who are not attacking sides at their core. So why is the value so good? Well, I think this line was impacted by a couple of factors that are not indicative of the actual outcome. The first is that Villa have had a couple of high scoring matches recently, where they’ve gave up 6 goals total. That might suggest defensive frailty, but having watched those games I think it was more due to a couple of bad breaks and mental lapses that will certainly sured up by the manager in training. The other reason is Arsenal’s suspensions to Luiz and Leno, who are consistent starters in this team. That kind of change can cause defenses to struggle because new personnel doesn’t necessarily fill in smoothly, but I don’t think losing Luiz, who is known for his lack of discipline, will hurt that much defensively. Leno is more of a concern, but he’s not a good enough goalkeeper to cause a drastic step down. So, while I understand some concerns about the defense here, I expect this game to play tighter and for both to be more opportunistic than aggressive offensively.

💰 Pick: Under 2.5

 

Newcastle vs. Southampton

Hate betting unders? Well, I’ve got the Saturday pick for you. I LOVE the over 2.5 in this game. Newcastle are a nightmare defensively. They’ve only given up less than 2 goals in 1 of their last 5 games. The glimmer of hope for them is that Southampton have been even worse offensively, with just 1 goal scored in their last four games. That doesn’t concern me though, and here’s why. All teams go through scoring droughts, but at 27 goals through 21 games the Saints have shown that they have enough class to put the ball in the back of the net. Conversely, at 36 goals given up in 22 games (4^th worst) Newcastle has proven their defense is just a consistent mess. I like the Saints to break out of their rough patch and score a couple here. On the other side of the ball, the Saints have also failed to keep an opponent out of the net in their last 4 matches and haven’t looked like a solid unit in about a month. Giving up 9 goals to United, even with a couple of red cards, will not do anything good for their confidence and cohesion. Between those two factors, I think that the over has a very good chance of hitting in this one, and has good value at -104. I doubt either of these teams makes it to the over on their own, but also think there is a good chance they combine for enough production to hit 3 or 4.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-104)

 

Everton vs. Manchester United

Recency bias is the only thing that came to mind when I saw this line. You will probably never see a better example of it than right here. United performed really well against a Southampton side that lost a man less than 2 minutes into the game and never looked interested from there. But in the two games before that they drew Arsenal 0-0 and lost to Sheffield. Forgive me for not believing that they’re a massive favorite in this match. Granted, Everton have looked shaky over their last few matches as well, including a bad loss to Newcastle. But they’re solid overall and can easily be competitive with United. With that set up, the only real issue become how I want to bet Everton. I’m going with the line here, because of the value and protection it gives against a 1 goal loss. Everton are +160 at +1, which covers you for everything but a bad loss to the Red Devils. Are United capable of blowing out the Toffees? Yes. Even with the man-advantage against the Saints they showed that they can be clinical in front of the net, and they have the talent to give a good fight to almost any team in the world (on their best day). But they’re inconsistent, and are liable to show up completely flat. For a game that Everton will surely see as an opportunity to prove themselves and solidify their chance at UCL soccer next year, I think that this game is a lot closer odds-wise than the bookies do. I feel fairly good about a draw here, but the one goal cushion at those odds is too nice to pass up as a gambler.

💰 Pick: Everton +1 (+160)

 

Liverpool vs. Manchester City

Remember how I said there would need to be a back-breaking loss to derail City at this point. Well, if it were going to happen, this would be the one. Liverpool, despite all of their issues (and they have a lot of them), are still the holders and are in spitting distance of City. The separation City would get from winning this game pretty much knocks Liverpool out of contention, while a loss would give a lot of other teams hope. Basically, this match is sort of important. The issue for me in betting this one is whether Liverpool’s offense shows up (or if they’re even good enough to break down City). On their best day, Liverpool can tear apart the most solid defenses with their speed and passing skill. BUT, they’re also capable of getting shut out by Brighton (something I know a little bit about. I feel your pain). Unfortunately for them, this City unit is just too good in my opinion. They’ve given up 13 goals total in 21 games. 13. That’s absolutely wild. Only Athletico Madrid have given up less goals in ANY major league across Europe. On top of that, City’s offense is really starting to click. They’ve scored over a third of their goals on the season in their last 5 matches (out of 21), and probably could have had more were it not for the fact that they gave up 0 in that span and didn’t need to keep pushing. So while Liverpool are a real threat, I think this City team is just too good right now. Guardialo has finally built a back line that is strong enough to win at the highest level, and they don’t have to rely on putting 3 or 4 in every game. That’s a huge advantage, and I believe they have too much quality across the pitch for Liverpool to match right now. Take City to win.

💰 Pick: City ML (+105)

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