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Prospector Sam's Pure Gold – English Premier League and College Hoops Picks
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
I hate to go all “Debby Downer” on you guys, but after that abomination we watched on Sunday I’m not sure I have any other choice. The Super Bowl is a glorious occasion. The culmination of an entire season of football, both in the NFL and in college, that ends in one battle for the pinnacle of the entire sport.
The whole country sits down for it, and I imagine, in a time of pandemic, even more people were huddled up in their homes this year than ever before. The game had great story lines and great players, and we were all just begging for one shining moment to lead us back towards normalcy and happiness, nearly a year removed from the start of shutdown.
And boy, did we get absolutely none of that. That game was fucking awful from start to finish. The Chiefs barely showed up, and never looked like they had a chance of winning. Even the commercials were boring (not that I’ve ever been all that into the idea of caring more about commercials, something everyone desperately hates 364 days of the year).
Hell, I was expecting to start this blog by bitching about my boss scheduling a fucking call at 8 PM in the middle of the damn second quarter (an absurdly mean move, even though he claims he “forgot”), but I think he ended up doing me a favor. So, just like everything in the last year, the Super Bowl was the icing on the cake of probably the worst 12-month period this country has seen in a long time. Your welcome for that ray of sunshine.
As for actual good news, I’m still on fucking fire in Premier League bets. I genuinely cannot miss. 4/4 last week to add on to this amazing run and I probably would be a bazillionaire if I just invested all of my money in sports betting. At least I managed to help out my loyal Gold Diggers with some solid winners along the way.
Oh, and my “College Basketball Pick of the Day” (Trademark pending, I’m sure nobody else has used that one before) is converting at a high clip too, so if you aren’t following along on twitter you are losing some extra cash. Funny enough, it’s a bit odd for me to be on here wildly bragging about all of my winners, since that very clearly is not what this is all about. I provide good picks and solid analysis, but you don’t need a long winded sports gambling article to do that.
This character is about making sports gambling fun and enjoyable, and engaging with content in a way that provides some humor, not about proving how great of a gambler I am. While I like to think I know what I’m doing, I want this to be bigger than sports gambling and something that can grow and resonate with more people than just the degenerate sports gambler. But hell, I guess if I can make you all some money, you’re better for it. I’ll try to keep it up.
Now for the nuggets! ⤵️
⛏️ I’ll just go ahead and get the Super Bowl out of the way. Like I said, the game sucked. There is no sugar coating it.
⛏️ As for my picks, I went 1/2, but nothing about my analysis was even close to correct so its hard to claim any sort of victory. I’ll just ignore that and move on.
⛏️ And there goes a major source of my sports gambling. There is no sport as fun to bet on as football, and its going to be sad waiting 7 months for it to come back. On the bright side, I do have a ton more free time now. Maybe I’ll pick up a hobby or something. I always wanted to learn to play the piano...
⛏️ Ok, I’ll address the Tom Brady situation. I’m a Patriots fan (born and raised in New England, don’t judge me), so watching him win with Tampa obviously caused some extra reaction compared to the average fan.
⛏️ I’m happy for him, and he deserves it. He gave me so many good moments, and I don’t resent him at all for leaving. But it stings a little. It almost taints his Patriots purity, and it doesn’t do Bill Belichick any favors (not that he cares). I’m starting to worry that this might be the beginning of a cold, long winter for my Pats.
⛏️ On to the Premier League. The first game of the weekend was as perfect a start as I could ask for. I nailed the under, and Arsenal lost in incompetent fashion. AFTV is starting to get fun to watch again...
⛏️ Pick number 2, win number 2, with the Newcastle-Southampton over. I’m going to be honest and admit that I didn’t even watch the start of the game because I was finishing some errands, and by the time I turned it on I had already won. It was a truly beautiful sight to see 2-1 in the 30th minute.
⛏️ I really don’t know what to make of West Ham. I’m not sure they do either. Its like one of those situations where you tell a lie that gets further than you expect, and then don’t know what to do because you’re in too deep. The Hammers are near the top of the table, and they haven’t got a clue how.
⛏️ Back to the gambling narrative, Saturday capped off with the most glorious of endings. We were already safe with Everton +1, but Calvert-Lewin scoring that goal to give my bet the win and crush United’s soul was magnificent. It’s a shame when bad things happen to good people, huh?
⛏️ Some local news anchor from Virginia tweeted at me this weekend. Does that mean I made it??? Truly though, if you read this Mitch Carr, I appreciate you. Its always nice to get some love from people who I have no clue are following.
⛏️ Tottenham won, but I’m still dead inside. It takes more than just a win over West Brom to un-freeze the ice cube that is my heart at the moment.
⛏️ Wolves’ draw at Leicester is a testament to the fact that you have to take every game in this League seriously. The Foxes looked like they were going through the motions from the start, and were probably lucky to walk away with a point
⛏️ Well, that’s probably the end of the title chase folks. I was completely right in my analysis, and City are just too good for anyone in England to handle right now. Liverpool were lucky to stay in he game for as long as they did (shout out to Ilkay for a TERRIBLE penalty) but the result was probably fair. Its gross to see City win, but it feels a little better being right about it.
⛏️ And Chelsea have quietly knocked off 3 straight wins with Tuchel in charge. I miss Frank, bring him back please.
⛏️ The FA Cup is getting close to the finish, which means games are starting to feel important. I’ll cover them more going forward, but it’s a nice time to mention that this is the round that Spurs managed to go out in a blaze of glory (not quite glory, but a blaze of something). A good reminder that this fandom will never bring me joy.
⛏️ On to CBB. Why in the fuck is Houston playing something called “Our Lady of the Lake.” Did they have a charity match with a nunnery? And, if so, it was pretty rude to beat them by 70.
⛏️ Texas continues to be a complete question mark. I’m also not sure how they’re ranked that high with a .500 record in conference.
⛏️ Kentucky lost again, which is fun. I have nothing to say substantively, I just love dancing on Calipari’s grave.
⛏️ Seeing Illinois do well still feels odd. Good for them for finally securing a few solid recruits from Chicago. That probably shouldn’t be such a big challenge for them, but it certainly is.
⛏️ As a general matter, the Big 10 is just a bloodbath right now. Almost every game is fun, and its great to see. They’re the closest thing we have to the old Big East days when the conference was stacked from top to bottom (except for DePaul. Poor DePaul..)
⛏️ And speaking of the Big East, this ‘Nova team is coming along nicely. They’re going to be dangerous come tournament time. If they get hot from deep, I’m not sure anybody can keep up with that scoring.
⛏️ Not much notable in the NBA/NHL/Golf world for me this week, so I’ll just breeze over that and get to the good stuff.
And with that, on to the picks! ⤵️
⚽ English Premier League
Well, with no football left, I will be compensating with some extra soccer picks this week. I won’t go overboard by betting too many games and force some sloppy picks, but I’ll give the Gold Diggers a range to work with (or just bet all of them, that’s what I do). The weekend starts out with a great matchup between two teams fighting for Champions League spots, but who are also completely unpredictable on any given day. If you want to bet this game on the moneyline be my guest, but I would rather sit in a pit of tarantulas (fun fact, spiders are one of my 3 fears). We don’t need to though, because the over here is a great pick. Liverpool looked completely lost against City on the offensive end, which shouldn’t be surprising since almost every team does. The more concerning result was them putting up 0 against Brighton the week before. However, Liverpool are still second in the league in goals scored at almost 2 per game. Recent form isn’t great, but that just means that the value on the bet is better than it should be relative to their whole body of work. Leicester aren’t far behind at fourth in the league in goals scored, and are also coming off a goalless outing. Basically, you have two good offenses and an over 2.5 at -138 that’s being floated heavily by recent results. As for defense, both of these sides are decent, but neither is in the top 5 in the league in that category. At the end of the day, Liverpool and Leicester win by putting the ball in the back of the net, and I expect that both take some risks knowing that at least 2 goals will probably be required to win. Basically, I love the over here. Don’t think too much, just shoot (you, but also them).
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-138)
It feels like a lifetime ago, but the peak of Tottenham’s season was a 2 goal win over City back in November. I was riding high, feeling like we had a chance at the title and some real glory. From that point on, though, these teams have been about as opposite as possible. City pulled themselves together and haven’t lost a match since. Tottenham... well, they were Tottenham. Chaos, horrible performances, a coach without a clue, and so on. So now, with the reverse fixture, nothing at all suggests that the outcome will be the same as the first time out. Which is why I will implore all of you walk the hell away from this line. If there is one thing I know confidently as a Spurs fan, it is that you should NEVER trust them to do what is expected. That applies to winning when they look good, and to losing when they look bad. I don’t trust this team one bit (yes, this relationship has broken me, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong). So what’s the play? Under. If there is one thing you can count on, its that Mourinho will sit back and defend in a big match. Spurs will put 10 behind the ball and counter the entire game, but are unlikely to find a ton of joy offensively against this City defense. The biggest concern is that Spurs haven’t been all that great defensively either (including giving up 5 mid-week to Everton), but the one benefit is that, even if they do concede, I still don’t expect them to push forward. My guess is that Mourinho will be content to try to keep this close and hope to steal a point at the end of the game. Honestly, I’m not sure I blame him either, considering how good City have been. This should be a close, low-scoring game that is played mostly in Spurs half. City put up 4 against Liverpool, which might concern you, but that was primarily because Liverpool made the mistake of trying to match City offensively, leaving gaps in their defense. Spurs, I assure you, will not do that. It’s the only thing I really do know.
💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (+134)
Aside from City, the team with the best form in their last 5 matches is actually.... Brighton? Wild, but that’s what happen when a team realizes relegation is a genuine possibility and kicks things into gear. With 3 wins and 2 draws they’ve separated from that line and are now a comfortable 10 points above 18th. That is the perfect time to bet against them, and I love Villa for the value in this game. At +180 on the Money Line, Villa get a huge payout against a team they have played far better than on the season. Villa have had a couple of rough defensive outings recently, but as I mentioned last week they don’t concern me, and the Villains repaid my confidence with a low scoring win. I expect much of the same this week, especially against a Brighton team that has scored just 4 goals in that 5 game run. As Sheffield learned this year, winning 1-0 games consistently is nice, but it’s a dangerous game to play and it doesn’t last forever. While Villa aren’t spectacular in front of goal, they have 36 tallies on the year and are capable of putting in a couple against the Gulls. Brighton have had a great run, but what goes up must come down, especially if it’s a shitty coastal side that’s barely big enough to hold on to its Premier League spot.
💰 Pick: Villa ML (+180)
Do you want goals? Boy, do we have the game for you. In fact, this game is primed for so many that the Over 2.5 isnt good enough to bet. I’m going to jump all the way to +3.5 and not even bat an eye. Why am I willing to do that? Well, despite the weak value here, everything I’ve seen from these teams tells me that they will give up goals. I spend a lot of my time trying to find value based on lines that are skewed by recent results, but I’m not just a one trick pony. Sometimes you just have to trust that what you see is what you get, and with these teams what you see is school yard defending and all out attack. Let’s start with West Brom who, despite all contrary logic, have decided they can overcome their relegation woes if they just keep trying to score as many goals as possible. Well, guys, you’ve given up 54 goals, so that might not be the trick. But, while I may see that reality, the Baggies certainly haven’t. They continue to dive head first for goals, exposing themselves in the back, and have conceded at least 2 in each of their last 5 matches. I expect United, the highest scoring team in the League, might surpass that number. As for the other side of the ball, United’s defense is also a bit of a mess. They have the worst defensive record for a team in the top half, and are capable of giving up multiple goals to powerful offenses like Sheffield (a feat they managed twice this year). West Brom aren’t exactly stellar in front of net, but they will take chances and I think they could put up a goal or two here. So, in the end, the best approach in this one is to expect a shootout despite giving up a bit of value on recent form. I just don’t see any way this game stays low scoring.
💰 Pick: Over 3.5 (+152)
Is it my birthday? No? Well, then, why are you giving me a gift? This line makes no sense. Arsenal pulled things together about a month ago to right the ship, but then someone decided to blow a hole straight through the bottom and they’re sinking again. Are they a full disaster? No. But to give them -115 against Leeds, who sit a point above the Gunners with a game in hand, does not make any sense. So where’s the play? I like Leeds +0.5. At +105 the value and payout are solid, and you also get protection from a draw which doesn’t seem all that unlikely in a match between two teams so close in the standings. Arsenal just don’t matchup well here either. They are a nightmare in front of goal, and have struggled to score all season. While Leeds give up more goals than anyone not named West Brom (sorry West Brom, I’ve been mean to you today, but you deserve it) they are less susceptible against Arsenal because the Londoners just don’t have any finishing quality. Meanwhile, Leeds are very likely to put at least one goal in the net, since they sit in the top 5 for that category on the season. Basically, this match seems more like a toss, so giving Leeds great odds feels like a steal. I’ll certainly take the value if you’re giving it to me.
💰 Pick: Leeds +0.5 (+105)
I’ll make this one quick and easy for you. Take Everton at -115 and never look back. Their form has been shaky lately, but they have European level talent and have been competitive with the top teams all year. Everton probably aren’t good enough to sneak into the top 4, but they’ve firmly put themselves in the “best of the rest” category. Meanwhile, Fulham are just bad. They’ve managed to snake a few draws in recent matches, but they have just 15 points through 22 games and a -14 goal differential. Not exactly a “good” side, based on those numbers. So, for -115 at Goodison, Everton have great value here. On top of that, if you peak ahead a bit, you’ll see that this is a game that Everton need to win. In the coming week, they play City and Liverpool, neither of which is a pleasant game to be looking forward too. They could very easily pick up 0 points in that span. So making sure they take care of business in a game they should win will be a huge priority, and the importance of this game will not be lost on them. It’s a very winnable game for the Toffees, and I expect they pull through against an outclassed Fulham side.
💰 Pick: Everton ML (-115)
🏀 NCAAM Basketball
College basketball??? But Prospector, you said you couldn’t do it... well, ladies and gentlemen, I found a way to get some early lines for Saturday games and I’ll preview a couple of picks that I like for the non-twitter users. And, boy, what a matchup to start with. The game EVERYONE was dying to watch between powerhouses Northeastern and Towson.... Well, it may not be flashy, but college basketball provides a ton of opportunity for value bets (especially on some of the lesser known teams), and it’s a great place to find lines that don’t quite match reality. Here, Northeastern is getting a very favorable spread at just -4, despite have a 7-1 conference record compared to Towson’s 2-8 mark. So why specifically do I like the Huskies? For one, that 4 point number is a bit of a red herring because at that margin you are likely to get free throws as the game closes out. So even if Northeastern is only up 3-5 points as time winds down, they will get a bunch of scoring opportunities to cover this line. On top of that, Northeastern is just a much better team. They’re top of the CAA with just a single loss to second-placed JMU, and have played solid ball all year. A brutal out of conference schedule is what’s holding them back, sitting at 8-6 with losses to teams like West Virginia and Syracuse. Towson, meanwhile, is just bad. They’ve lost every conference game except a double header against UNC Wilmington and have struggled to be competitive when facing some of the better teams. I think Northeastern has too much talent, especially with how poorly Towson defends. Take the Huskies in this one.
💰 Pick: NE -4
Alright, I’ll do you a favor and give a pick on a game you guys might actually want to watch. This is a great game between the two top teams in the Big East, and sets up to be a crucial point in their seasons. A win for Creighton, in particular, would go a long way to proving they are a legitimate contender. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it. The Bluejays have had a solid year, but they’ve had spotty performance overall and have failed to separate from even the worst teams in the conference. Winning games is the priority, but they haven’t been the most convincing. Add in losses to four teams in the bottom half of the conference standings, and I see this team as being slightly over-ranked and over valued by the college basketball community and book. Meanwhile, Villanova is just flat out good. They score efficiently, move the ball well, and play solid enough defense to keep themselves in games. Robinson-Earl is a beast, and he drives this team forward with his scoring and rebounding, but this roster is loaded with talent from Jay Wright’s recruiting ability. Overall, I think they have too much for Creighton to handle, and at just -1.5 the value on this bet is great.
💰 Pick: Villanova -1.5
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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