Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Sweet 16 Picks: Betting picks, odds and promotions

As much as you all may have liked (or hated) me writing every day and shoving my content straight down your throats, it wasn’t a sustainable lifestyle. Technically speaking that may not be true, since I would gladly write that and more every day if I was paid to do it for a living, but while I still peddle among the twitter handicappers and low budget cartoons of the world it isn’t going to happen.

I love you all dearly, but my fiance wouldn’t appreciate it if I quit my job and gave up my income to chase the dream of being a world famous cartoon sports writer. All hope is not lost, though, because I’m pretty sure I just have to bide my time until people stop ignoring that Dimers’ analytics/machine based model (which is actually really damn good), and then I’ll hit the fucking jackpot.

And that model, to seamlessly transition, will be the topic of my intro/cold open, which I’m sure you all missed greatly. When Dimers first reached out to me to write, I honestly had no idea who or what the hell they were. I actually almost didn’t respond because I thought they were just some random writer or gambler who just wanted to talk sports.

Then I found out what I could about them, which was basically just that they use a model to analyze gambling odds to make statistically efficient picks, and I honestly thought “meh, I doubt I would ever gamble off that.” It wasn’t so much that I didn’t believe the model could work, but as someone who clearly values the importance of breaking down matchups and trying to discuss/think about them in creative ways, it just didn’t feel like my cup of tea. I figured I could write for them and provide something different than what they were already providing, and we could coexist in the same space rather well.

4 months into this adventure, and I probably couldn’t feel any more different about their analytical model and the value they provide. Not only do we not simply coexist, we are like ying and yang, like peanut butter and jelly, like LeBron James and a picture of himself. For one, their model is pretty damn good. That obviously has to be the baseline, but I check in to see how things are going on their side of the kingdom pretty frequently and they seem to win a hell of a lot (I will decline to comment on which of us does better).

On top of that, sometimes you just need an answer without all of my bullshit. I can only write about so many picks, and you all don’t have enough fucking time to read me blab for every pick. And some types of picks are way more conducive to a model anyway. Picking games against the spread requires a broader understanding of a massive amount of considerations and has a lot of talking points. Picking the number of rebounds that some mediocre NBA player will get in a night, not so much.  Basically, I provide the fireworks and pizazz with the long write-ups and detailed picks, while they do all of the actual groundwork and cover everything else I miss. Now that I think about it, this is actually a pretty good deal for me... Thanks Dimers!

With that, the return of the nuggets! ⤵️

⛏️ I’m going to try to cover the first two rounds of the Tournament, god help me.

⛏️ I’ll just start by generally discussing my picks. I was on fucking fire in the first round, and 11-3 ATS is about as good as I’ll probably ever do. Pretty damn proud, honestly

⛏️ Second round, not so much. 8-8 isnt going to hurt you but obviously isn’t going to make you money. I think I may have gotten a bit too exuberant and picked too many games in stead of choosing my spots, and I’ll try to do better this time around

⛏️ On to the games. Credit to Florida and VT starting off with a fucking bang. Too bad my perfect bracket dies at game 1 though...

⛏️ Fairly boring early. Some 1 seed blowouts, and Colgate making an early push only to utterly collapse based on the style of play (as predicted by yours truly)

⛏️ And then we got Oral Roberts. What a game, and credit to them for outplaying OSU. Usually when you see those huge upsets its more a matter of the better team sucking. This was more of ORU just being on fire.

⛏️ Speaking of teams sucking, Purdue... what the hell guys. That was fucking pathetic. The only team at home in Indiana for the Tournament, and they crumbled to North Fucking Texas.

⛏️ Poor Tennessee. Well, more appropriately, poor Tennessee fans. What a sad life it must be to see your school consistently suck at every major sport.

⛏️ Someone forgot to tell Wisconsin that they were a 9 Seed. It may have had more to do with just how bad UNC was this year, but the Badgers looked incredible in that matchup.

⛏️ Syracuse! What a fucking win over SDSU. Buddy couldn’t miss to save his life, and the Aztecs looked like a fighter who took a big punch in an early round and just couldn’t pull things back together. I didn’t expect much from this Syracuse team, so I was very happy with a win.

⛏️ A few other comfortable winners day 1, but nothing else crazy to write about

⛏️ Day 2 started with a bang, similar to day 1, but in completely different fashion. Colorado blew the doors off a Georgetown team that people had inexplicably decided was the next Cinderella. Alas, it was not meant to be.

⛏️ Other than that, we didn’t see anything all too exciting in my eyes. Most of the top seed won, except for an absolutely shocking performance by Texas who crashed out to a team who’s starters included a relative midget and a player who legitimately looked 50 pounds overweight. I honestly still have no idea how the Longhorns managed to lose, and Shaka Smart is in some real trouble if he doesn’t produce next year

⛏️ Ohio’s upset of Virginia was a big upset seed-wise, but not in reality. A lot of people liked them to win and, ultimately, UVA just couldn’t overcome everything going against them. No tears from me, since watching Tony Bennett’s team play is the worst thing in college basketball

⛏️ Drake got absolutely stomped, which should have surprised nobody. I honestly can’t believe that Wichita managed to lose to them.

⛏️ Maryland’s upset of UConn seemed pretty obvious to me, but the twitter world went nuts when it happened. The Huskies had major flaws and facing a tough Terps defense was always going to be an issue, so I’m not sure why there was so much shock. But hey, not everyone can be as smart as me (says the guy with 0 Final Four teams alive in the Sweet 16)...

⛏️ We got our first and only (knock on wood) forfeit with VCU having to bow out against Oregon. It was kind of sad, because I was interested to see how the Rams would do, especially after St Bonaventure, the only other A10 team, got smoked by LSU. Never fun to have games cancelled, but that’s the Covid reality I suppose

⛏️ The night ended with BYU getting crushed by UCLA, highlighting just how bad some of the seeding was this year. The Committee deciding that that team, with its best performances being “only losing to Gonzaga by 10,” deserved a 6 seed blows my mind.

⛏️ On to Round 2, we got our first major tree to fall, as Illinois got run off the floor by in-state rival Loyola. There should be no tears shed for Illinois after that performance (and the absolute nightmare of a game by Dosunmu), but it really did highlight how bad the committee fucked up. Loyola was NEVER an 8 seed, and Illinois took the brunt of that mistake. Again, maybe play better though.

⛏️ Baylor suffocated Wisconsin. There wasn’t a ton to say, but the Badgers never really looked like they had a chance.

⛏️ I had a brutal loss in that TTU-Arkansas game. The Raiders had every chance to win, including Mac McClung missing the front end of a 1-1 with under 2 minutes in a 1-point game. This Tournament can break your heart, even as a gambler.

⛏️ Syracuse won again. I honestly am shocked, and it’s a reminder that, no matter how bad they are all year, teams not in the ACC are going to have issues with the Zone. I will no longer be betting their games though, because I clearly haven’t got a fucking clue

⛏️ Speaking of heartbreak, oh boy Rutgers. What the hell were you doing, trying to run down clock with a 3-point lead. Along with Illinois, Sunday was a reminder that certain schools are just losers, and nothing will change that

⛏️ Oral Roberts’ win was fun, aside from the 5 million terrible Oral sex jokes that came after. You get it? Because their name is like the sex act?.... Be better, internet.

⛏️ North Texas was never good. Villanova may have had the easiest run to the Sweet 16 ever.

⛏️ The night ended with Oklahoma State getting thoroughly dominated by... Oregon State? I have no fucking clue. I watched them multiple times in Pac 12 play and this may not even be the same team. Also, my belief in Cade Cunningham may have been a bit misplaced.

⛏️ Monday started with one of the wildest games I’ve seen in the tournament, purely because I have no clue what the fuck Iowa was doing. Sure, Oregon shot the ball well, but the Hawkeyes legitimately looked like they just didn’t want to play defense. Shame on me for trusting this team.

⛏️ Gonzaga is good. Very good. But like I said, the committee gave them an absolute cakewalk the first few rounds. Wait until they play a real team to crown them.

⛏️ I take back what I said about Nova. Aside from the play in game (which I don’t count as a tournament game), UCLA may have had the easiest run to the sweet 16 ever. Abilene Christian, thanks for showing up.

⛏️ If Texas didn’t fire Shaka after their loss, they probably should have after that Round 2 matchup.

⛏️ I need to talk about Ohio a bit more. Jason Preston is clearly skilled and got the brunt of heavy defensive focus, but he also completely shrank in Ohio’s two Tournament games. Only scoring 4 against Creighton is pretty unacceptable, and doesn’t bode well for the big NBA career people were touting for him prior to the Tournament

⛏️ Hell of a comeback by Michigan. This team still has some fight even without Livers, and if they get themselves together they still could win this thing

⛏️ I owe FSU an apology, I was very wrong. At least kind of. I had always said they were an incredibly athletic and talented group, just way too prone to mistakes. They decided against Colorado to change that, and looked incredible. Be careful trusting them, but if they get hot they could be extremely dangerous

⛏️ Alabama is so fun to watch, I never want them to lose. Aside from Syracuse, they might be the team I’m rooting for most.

⛏️ Oh, Kansas. What in god’s name was that. USC may be better than expected and Evan Mobley is an NBA talent, but losing by 35? That’ pretty damn sad.

⛏️ Overall, what a great 4 days. It was so good to have the tournament back, and we got our fill of great games and crazy upsets. It felt weird having no buzzer beating victories, but maybe March Madness needs a little more time to warm back up.

⛏️ I will be making no comments at this time about the Big 10 or Pac 12. I was wrong, as was almost everyone in the country, aside from Bill Walton. And fuck Bill Walton.

⛏️ There was a bit of soccer, that I’ll touch on, just to show you I was paying attention.

⛏️ Newcastle need to get relegated. Losing 3-0 to Brighton in a game you have to win is an absolute embarrassment

⛏️ I have no words for Arsenal-West Ham. The result was fine for Spurs, so I’m not upset, but I really wish the roles were reversed and it had been the Gunners blowing the 3-0. Credit to the Hammers for making that happen though.

⛏️ Spurs won, and are doing just enough to give all of us fans hope. They didn’t look particularly great but got the 3 points which is all that matters. Can’t wait to see how they hurt me next

⛏️ With that, there’s no Prem this weekend due to international break so only March Madness picks for you.

Let's get to it! ⤵️

 

🏀 Sweet 16

 

Oregon State-Loyola

Ah, the classic 8-12 matchup we so often see and read about. Pleasure to have it back, wouldn’t you say? In all seriousness, this game is actually really simple for me, and it turns on how you (and, theoretically, they), answer one question; how long can Oregon State keep this shit up. Over the last month they’re 8-1, winning the Pac 12 Championship (which is apparently more impressive than it seemed) and pulling off two big upsets in the tournament. That includes a current run of 5 straight wins against Tournament teams. BUT, this is also a team with multiple losses to Arizona, and who lost to Wyoming, Portland and Stanford. Call my cynical, but I like Loyola to end this run of glory and win comfortably. The Beavers biggest asset is their height, with Roman Silva clocking in at 7’1” and Warith Alatishe a 6’7” rebounding machine. They dominated the Cowboys on the boards, taking almost 20 more rebounds which was the major difference in the game. On top of that, they’ve shot fairly well in their two tournament games, hitting about 50% of their shots with that strong inside game. Unfortunately, they are absolutely not going to get that kind of luxury here. Loyola isn’t the most talented team, but they are extremely well drilled defensively and will prevent Oregon State from the easy rebounds and buckets that Oklahoma State and Tennessee gave up with lazy play. More importantly, the Beavers conveniently hid the fact that they turned the ball over 20 damn times on Sunday, which is going to kill them against a Loyola team who slows down the game and limits total possessions. Assuming Krutwig can be half the player inside that he was against Illinois, the Beavers are going to have to shoot well from deep to win, and they aren’t exactly a great 3-point shooting program. Maybe I’m just completely blind to how good the Pac 12 and their mid level teams are, but I think Loyola presents a major issue for how Oregon State wants to play and they will be in huge trouble if they cool off even a little bit. I trust the consistent defense of Loyola here, and I think they win this one comfortably, in the 10-point range.

💰 Pick: Loyola -6.5

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Villanova-Baylor

I’m going to skip the build up and jump straight to the answer here. Giving up 7 points in this game is tough, but its absolutely worth it. Baylor’s guards are deadly, and they make up for a lack of size by killing you from every angle with skilled shooters. Villanova is without their best guard, Collin Gillespie, and are going to rely on Jeremiah Robinson-Earl heavily to make up the difference. But this team just isn’t the same one that was in the top-10 for most of the year without Gillespie, and they got a nice break facing North Texas in the second round, who looked completely outmatched by the talent level they were facing, in stead of Purdue. Baylor will not face the same issues, and will exploit Villanova’s limited guard quality and thinner depth by passing them to death and getting open shots and easier buckets on good cuts. Baylor still didn’t show me that they are the same team they were pre Covid, but they were good enough against Wisconsin to make me feel like they can handle lesser opposition well. Without Gillespie, Villanova qualifies as “lesser” and the Bears should handle them easily.

💰 Pick: Baylor -7

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Oral Roberts-Arkansas

I told you earlier I was going to pick my spots rather than going after every game, and I’m going to do it here. I have no fucking clue what to do with this line. Oral Roberts is extremely hot, and if they continue to shoot the ball like they have the first two games, then they have a shot both to cover and to win. They also were the 4^th placed team in the Summit League this season, so everyone needs to chill the fuck out with how this team was “clearly underseeded.” Oh really? You’re going to tell me the team who lost to UM Kansas City and North Dakota deserved a 12 seed? Get the hell out of here. Good for them for taking a swing and coming out alive in the last two games, but they’re also liable to go cold and get blasted by 30. And this matchup presents a couple of huge problems. For one, Arkansas is athletic as hell and are going to be able to contest shots. More importantly, ORU is going to have no element of surprise here. The Golden Eagles will have been thoroughly scouted and gameplanned for, especially because Arkansas already faced and beat this team by 11 earlier in the year. So don’t get all excited by the 11-point line, just because this team has taken down a couple of big programs so far. That said, I have no fucking clue if ORU is going to stay hot, and if they shoot the ball like they have then they will absolutely cover this spread. To me, it just feels like a game to walkaway from and enjoy.

Abstain

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Syracuse-Houston

You already know I’m not picking this game, but I’ll give you my breakdown anyway and you can choose what you like. The Syracuse team I watched all year has no business being here. But the Syracuse team of the last 3 weeks can beat anybody. It’s a testament to just how crazy of an advantage the Zone is when its working right, especially against teams who have never seen it before. On top of that, Syracuse is also getting a big boost from Quincy Guerrier’s shooting and from solid inside minutes out of Edwards and Braswell. Oh, and Buddy Boeheim shooting like he’s the second coming of his coach, Gerry McNamara, helps a bit too. So all that is to say, good luck figuring out what this team will do, especially on the offensive end. If they hit threes at the clip they have been, or even close to it, they probably win. West Virginia is a hell of a team and Sean McNeil hit 7 of 13 threes, and they still didn’t have enough to beat the Orange. The real story of this game, though, as I’ve been saying for a while, is how fucking fast Houston figures out what to do against the Zone. SDSU never did, and WVU only found some openings because the zone was stretched due to McNeil’s insane range. Now, we get a Houston team that has been strong all year, but will be facing a defense that’s completely new to them, and filled with athletes who have absurdly long wingspans (something ‘Cuse specifically recruits for). Maybe Houston shows up and blows the doors of Syracuse, because they have the talent to do it on their best day and are a very solid team. On the other hand, they barely even deserved to make it to this round, and looked lost offensively when facing a Power Conference level opponent in Rutgers. So fuck it, I may be jinxing them but I’m rolling with Syracuse to not only cover but win. I talked myself into it, and I truly believe that, as long as they shoot the ball decently well, they are going to beat a Houston team that will struggle offensively. Take the Orange in a favorable matchup.

💰 Pick: Syracuse +6 (and ML)

Editor's note: this didn't last long did it, Mr. Prospector? 👀

I will no longer be betting Syracuse basketball games. I’m just too damn close to this team, and it’s closing me. I’m 12-5 on the weekend and 2 of the 5 losses are on Cuse.

— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) March 21, 2021

 

Creighton-Gonzaga

Well, I bet against Gonzaga on their crazy 14.5 line against Oklahoma, and everything was swell with about 2 minutes left in the game. Then, Oklahoma just collapsed and gave up a 9-2 run to let the Zags cover the spread. It was a frustrating result, but also reflective of something I’ve been saying since the bracket came out; Gonzaga got an absolute gift in their road to the Final Four. That trend continues here, as they face a Creighton team that should have lost in Round 1 to the mighty UCSB, and then faced an Ohio team that never really showed up after their upset against UVA. Again we’re faced with a 13.5-point spread, and I’m completely conflicted about this line. On the one hand, my brain tells me that this is the Tournament, and giving up that many points is fucking insane. On the other hand, Gonzaga is very good and this is the perfect matchup for them, against a smaller conference school who will be completely outmatched in terms of talent and skill. If you’re looking for the window to bet against Gonzaga, like I am, I think you should probably wait until they face a team with more recruiting weight and a higher ceiling than this Creighton team. My gut wants me to bet the Bluejays, but I don’t like it enough to get comfortable with the pick.

Abstain

 

FSU-Michigan

I mentioned it a bit in the nuggets, but I was very wrong about FSU and how they would look against Colorado. This team is scary athletic, and if they keep it together in the turnover department, they’re a tough matchup for anyone in the country. Michigan has also showed a lot, especially without Isaiah Livers, and handled an LSU team that gave them everything they had and then some by consistently scoring and weathering the storm. But without Livers this clearly is not the same Wolverines team that was a lock for a number one seed, and they’re going to get a damn tough test from FSU. I’m riding with the ‘Noles. For one, its worth noting that Michigan is the only Big 10 team left standing, and we have to doubt the quality of their body of work a bit if its based on how well they performed in a conference that has repeatedly failed in this Tournament. I’ve liked what I saw all year from Michigan, but at a certain point you have to accept that it may not have been as spectacular as we once thought. On top of that, FSU was incredible against Colorado, and if they get help from role players like Anthony Polite (who put up 22 in that game) then this Seminoles team could legitimately win the national championship. Hunter Dickinson is usually the best big man on the floor in any game he plays, especially at 7’1”, but FSU has multiple 7 footers that can give them minutes and battle down low, along with a strong cast of forwards who will cause him issues with their strength inside. Without that advantage in the paint, I think Michigan’s offense will sputter a bit because shooters will get less space on the outside from collapsing defenses, and FSU is so athletic that they can handle the task defensively. I’ve seen enough to believe in FSU, so long as they keep themselves under 17 or so turnovers, and I think they are the better bet here.

💰 Pick: FSU +2.5

 

UCLA-Alabama

The key to beating this UCLA team is clearly shutting down Johnny Juzang. When he’s hitting shots, which he has so far this tournament, it opens up the whole offense and gives them better looks, something they can struggle with at times due to injuries at forward. Michigan State did a decent job of it for a while, and held Juzang to just 33% from 3, but ultimately fell apart down the stretch which let the Bruins come back and win. Alabama isn’t necessarily set up for that defensive effort either. They win by scoring in bunches, and are pretty content to let other teams put up some points so long as they can effectively hit from 3. But I like Alabama here. While UCLA is a solid team, they got the benefit of two extremely favorable matchups in the first two rounds that made them look a hell of a lot better than they actually are. Meanwhile, Alabama is just fucking good, and beat the piss out of a solid Maryland defensive unit by shooting them to death and hitting shots before the Terps could even set up defensively. UCLA is solid on that end of the floor, but they aren’t spectacular, and they’re going to have issues keeping up with the Tide offensively. I think the key is the style of play you need to hang with Alabama; you want to slow the game down, limit possessions and transition buckets, and force the Tide to play a half court offense. Iona used that strategy to some success, and teams who have beaten the Tide (Oklahoma, Missouri, Clemson) have mostly done it in low scoring games. Mick Cronin is a great coach and may try to slow things down a bit, but that’s not the style of play that UCLA wants to implement, and I don’t expect them to completely overhaul their offense to try to turn this into a minimal possession game, since its just not what they’re good at. If that’s the case, I don’t think they have the guns to keep up with Alabama and I expect the Tide to take this one comfortably

💰 Pick: Alabama -6

 

Oregon-USC

Betting games where both programs know each other well is a difficult task in the Tournament. Arkansas and ORU had already played each other this year, but conference rivals are a whole different ballgame and these two teams will know each other inside out already. They faced off just once this year in LA, where USC won comfortably by 14. The question is, just how good is this Oregon team. They looked like the fucking dream team against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes basically refused to play defense so its hard to know how much of that was Oregon being good and how much was their opponent’s futility. USC won comfortably against an overmatched Drake side in Round 1, which told me almost nothing, but they absolutely dominated KU in Round 2 by 34 fucking points. That performance is the difference for me. Between the first round bye and the one game played, I don’t feel all that certain that Oregon is a great team, but I sure as hell know that USC is right now. Add in that the best player on the court, Evan Mobley, is playing for the Trojans, and I can’t bet against them here. Sure, if Oregon comes out shooting even half as well as they did against Iowa then USC is going to have a tough time keeping up, but USC will know how to defend the Ducks and will make sure not to allow an open shot or uncontested layup on every fucking possession. Chris Duarte is a great player, but USCs first priority defensively will be stifling him, which will help slow down the rest of the Oregon offense. I expect USC holds Oregon to a more average shooting performance, and takes this game in a close one.

💰 Pick: USC -2.5

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