Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Premier League and MLB Picks

Another weekend of Premier League action is here and if you're on the lookout for some free soccer picks, the Prospector has you covered.

Alright folks, time to tackle a fairly controversial topic. I do my best to stay away from hot button issues or taking sides on the debates that divide our society, but I just can’t hold back on this one. This question has perplexed me for as long as I can remember, and I’m going to get my hands dirty right here and now because its something I can’t ignore any more.

What is this major issue? Are we talking gun control or the rise of domestic terrorism? Health care reform? The MLB trying to single handedly destroy the state of Georgia by cheating them out of wins? Nope, I want to talk WWE and WrestleMania. As I perused sports media this weekend, I was made very aware of the fact that WWE was holding their signature event. Even in the underbelly that is the sports gambling world I saw tons of people putting out bets for who would “win” matches. And guys, I’m going to be honest, the attraction as a sports fan doesn’t make one god damn lick of sense to me.

Granted, I’m a simple man. My stated profession is one that died out over 100 years ago since going to pan for gold doesn’t really bring in the big bucks any more. I like drinking beer, watching sports, and the occasional RomCom to pull at the heart strings (what can I say, I have a soft side). So a man of high culture, I am not. But if you told me I had the option of watching/gambling on meatheads pretending to wrestle with some absolutely horrendous acting thrown in, or counting the blades of grass in my back yard, I might honestly choose the latter.

So, while there were 5,000 different sporting events going on last weekend – from The Masters to MLB to NBA to NHL – the fact that there was so much attention being given by sports fans to WrestleMania legitimately blew my mind. Now, maybe I’m just too stubborn to understand the appeal. Maybe the corniness of it really is just fun to watch and that’s how this has grown into a legitimate “sporting” event. Hell, I might just be a damn curmudgeon about the whole thing and too stuck in my ways to see the benefits. But for the life of me, I just can’t.

And I’m the guy who gets excited for the Olympics, not because I have extreme national pride and love watching some swimmer win 15 different medals doing essentially the same thing, but because I LOVE watching weird sports. I can sit down and watch 5 hours of long jump skiing or competitive kayaking. But WWE? I just can’t do it. So if someone wants to explain to me what I’m missing, I would really appreciate it. I would love to be able to enjoy something new, but the appeal as a sports fan doesn’t make any sense to me.

Now, lets break out the shiny, gold Nuggets 🔽

⛏️ The Masters was the big event of the weekend, so I’ll start there.

⛏️ Well, I’ll actually take a step back and look at my picks which were, to put it nicely, not very good. I stated openly that betting golf isn’t really my thing. Avid fan, not so avid gambler. But I kind of figured I’d do better than that.

⛏️ But since I warned everyone of that, I’m gonna guess nobody actually tailed my bets, so I was probably the only real loser here.

⛏️ I guess I’ll work my way backwards as far as the recap. Matsuyama deserved to win. Despite giving back a few shots toward the end, knowing that he had some breathing room, he was the best player on the week. It’s a good thing Schauffele choked on 16 though, because the moment (and adrenaline) was clearly getting to Hideki. That approach on 15 could have been the start of a major collapse... (see what I did there)

⛏️ Speaking of Schauffele, what a fucking nightmare. That’s an inexcusable mistake. You don’t even need to aim at the damn flag on 16, you shoot right and let gravity do the work. More importantly, that’s the kind of moment that can stick with you long after the tournament, and I wonder if he’ll ever get it out of his head.

⛏️ Zalatoris was a cool story. Dude looks like he has the body of an 11 year old, but hits the ball 300 yards. I was worried he was going to snap his back on pretty much every swing

⛏️ I’ll try to pass over the mediocre finishes, but Bryson shooting 75-75 on the weekend was really funny. I made this point on twitter, but I don’t think he ever wins the masters. Unlike Winged Foot, Augusta actually punishes you for errant tee shots and reckless decision making.

⛏️ DJ missing the cut was pretty wild, especially for how well he’s played and how dominant he was in November. But that just shows how tough Augusta can be. As someone who doesn’t love watching him golf (he has the personality of a door knob) I wasn’t too upset though.

⛏️ To sum things up, it was great to see the real Masters back. The course in November had no teeth to it, and players ate it alive. This time around, the course bit back and took a good chuck out of a lot of solid golfers. It wasn’t impossible, but forced you to play well on every shot.

⛏️ On to soccer, the Premier League week started with a howler of a game between Wolves and Fulham. The Cottagers looked ready to claw their way out of relegation two weeks ago, but that dream is probably dead.

⛏️ Saturday morning started off with one of the weirdest games I have ever seen. Leeds grabbing the win despite being down a man at the Etihad was shocking, but I guess it probably due to City just not caring any more. They already have the title, why push too much on a UCL week.

⛏️ But I grabbed an easy win on under 3.5 (well, maybe not easy, but a win), which was the start of a 4-1 week in soccer. The Prospector is back and as strong as ever!

⛏️ Oh and, with that strong week Dimers is finally sending me a shirt! They’re finally willing to recognize me as a part of the team, and it only took... 5 months (can’t say I blame them, associating with me isn’t always the best idea)

⛏️ Liverpool grabbed a win at the death from Villa. Klopp’s side have had a brutal year, but you can already see that somehow they’re going to snake their way into the top 4. Probably at the expense of Leicester.

⛏️ And I say that because Chelsea don’t look like stumbling at all either. This week, it was a comfortable 4-1 victory of a Palace side who legitimately look like they couldn’t care less any more, except for picking up a pay check

⛏️ Sunday started with another solid win on the Newcastle-Burnley Over, which paid nicely at +146. Like I said, this Burnley defense just isn’t what it was 3 months ago

⛏️ Speaking of Leicester, they got smacked around by West Ham for most of that match, and it was too little too late on the comeback.

⛏️ Yes, I purposely left out West Ham above. For anyone who thinks the Hammers are going to stay in the Top 4, you need to get your head checked. This defense is a train wreck and they can’t keep scoring 3 goals every game, no matter how good Lingaard is

⛏️ Well, I was spot on about Spurs. This team just isn’t capable of holding it together, and they pissed away a 1-0 half time lead to lose 3-1. I’m done moaning and complaining on here about them, they just are what they are; an average team with a manager who can’t make them better. Beating United was never in the cards.

⛏️ But a comfortable win on the Over got me to 3-0, and then Arsenal followed that by beating the stuffing out of Sheffield for a 4-0 record. I guess I’ll thank the Gunners, at least this once

⛏️ My sole loss came at the hands of Brighton, who held Everton to a 0-0 draw. Well, “held” might be a generous term. Both teams looked like they barely knew what planet they were on and played some of the worst soccer I’ve seen in the Premier League all year. But a loss is a loss, and it doesn’t really matter how it happened.

⛏️ On to the Champions League, the holders are gone. Bayern managed a 1-0 win in Paris, but PSG moved on based on away goals. Kind of crazy to see Bayern go out, but their defense in the first leg was horrendous and they’re clearly too reliant on Lewandowski to score. I would bet a lot of money they end up with Haaland at the end of the summer.

⛏️ Similarly, Chelsea stifled Porto enough to suck out a 1-0 loss and move on via aggregate. God do I hate seeing Chelsea win.

⛏️ Poor Liverpool. I feel so bad for you. Just so bad. Not insincere at all (too much? Ok, I’m done).

⛏️ While I don’t love rooting for Real either, it’s probably for the best they won. 3 English teams in the final four would have been a bit much.

⛏️ It’s a damn shame that Dortmund got City in the quarters. The Germans gave them a real scare, and that just as easily could have been a great final matchup.

⛏️ Not a lot to say in the Europa League. Every team who should have won did, and the Semis should be pretty good. United-Roma is a particularly interesting matchup, and the winner of that one probably lifts the trophy (no offense Arsenal/Villareal, but also kind of offense).

⛏️ Let’s talk baseball for a minute. We had a couple of meaningful events, which is a lot to say this early in the season, but I can’t ignore them

⛏️ The first was the Padres no-no. Maybe this organization is finally getting their shit together (but probably not. It’s the Padres, I wouldn’t hold my breath)

⛏️ AND ANOTHER NO-NO by Rodon for the White Sox. Are we in a pitcher’s league again?

⛏️ I know people love runs and fireworks, but no hitters might actually be the most fun thing in baseball. Watching a guy try to get MLB hitters out while his arm is basically falling off after 100 pitchers is as suspenseful and exciting as baseball gets (outside of the payoffs)

⛏️ As for the Phillies-Braves controversy, I really can’t say anything more than what every human being who isn’t blind has said. And even the blind people can confidently say he didn’t touch the plate.

⛏️ The NBA is plugging along towards the playoffs, and we now have teams (or maybe just Dallas) openly complaining about the play in tournament. Hey guys, no shit it’s a bad idea. The same way the play in Wild Card game in the MLB and the play in games for March Madness are just silly money grabs, so is this ridiculous idea. But the NBA made its bed, so now they have to sleep in it. Don’t come crying to me

⛏️ Jamal Murray’s injury sucks. There’s no sugar coating it. You never want to see anyone get hurt, and losing him basically puts the Nuggets season in the grave. Not that it matters I guess, since Lakers/Nets is basically a foregone conclusion.

⛏️ Lots of talk about the NFL draft already has me ready to blow my brains out. No, I do not give a fuck where you think each of these QBs end up and what hypothetical trades could be made on deadline day. There are 500 games a day being played right now, the fact that sports media wastes so much time on pro days blows my mind

⛏️ In meaningful off season news, Clowney signed with the Browns. Don’t look now, but they might actually be contenders next year?... I joke, its still the Browns

⛏️ Oh and the NFL added another game to the schedule. I love how shameless they are. Right in the middle of claiming they care so much about player safety, they go out and add another 60 minutes of skull bashing because the revenue is better than meaningless pre season games. Goodell really is a super villain.

⛏️ I also wont complain though, because as a fan I’m all for it. Inject more football right into my veins

⛏️ Aaron Donald had a complaint filed against him in court for an alleged fight at a club. That begs just one question for me - who in the world is stupid enough to get into an argument with Aaron Donald? I’m not saying the guy deserved to get punched into the next century, but I’m also not not saying it (I’m pretty sure I can’t get sued for this kind of legal jiu jitsu).

⛏️ And on that happy/sympathetic note, picks!

 

 

️⚽️ Premier League

West Ham-Newcastle

I might actually bet a kidney on this over if it were legal. Yes, I know what I said above about West Ham not being able to score at the same clip they have recently. I was the one who wrote it. But I didn’t say it was going to end right away, and Newcastle aren’t exactly the team I would bet on to put up a herculean defensive effort. West Ham are scoring goals hand over fist right now, and are facing the 16^th best defense in the league. And, for what its worth, Newcastle have also scored 2 goals in each of their last two games (after they got frighteningly close to the drop line). That will give them some confidence against a West Ham team who have given up EIGHT GOALS in their last four games (but somehow still managed 7 points in that span). Those factors all points towards higher scoring for me (and anyone with half a brain), so you can understand my surprise when I saw the odds for Over 2.5 were -120. That is an absolutely insane number for what we’re seeing from these two teams right now. Add in the fact that West Ham are 13 places higher in the table, the kind of disparity that hurts the odds on this bet because the better team is expected to score, and getting a standard split on this bet is almost stealing. Could this confidence blow up in my face? Of course. West Ham are eventually going to run out of the meth (or whatever drug they’re taking) that allows them to play at their current speed, and they will slow down eventually. Newcastle may also be less motivated, having built a more sizable gap on the drop zone over the last couple of weeks. But 2.5 feels like almost a given between these two teams the way they’re playing, so I’m willing to ride with the trends and bet heavily here.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-120)

 

Fulham-Arsenal

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This pick is going to follow almost exactly the same structure as last week’s Arsenal pick. Sea of mediocrity, not enough talent to compete with big clubs, good enough to beat bad ones easily, etc. See, I skipped all the garbage for you, aren’t you happy? (well, considering you actively choose to read my articles, I think the answer is “no”, but I try not to assume). In all seriousness, this game boils down to one question; do Fulham actually have enough talent and fight to make a push for safety? A few weeks ago, I would have certainly said yes, since the Cottagers were soaring up the table and playing some decent soccer. But Fulham have lost their last four games, including winnable ones that they needed, and nothing short of a miraculous effort will get them out of the hole they’ve dug themselves. I just don’t see it from this team, especially with their recent performances. They ran out of steam against Villa and then never really gave much of anything against Wolves. It really just feels like this team gave everything they had in February and March, and the car ran out of gas a bit too early. So, with the talent the Gunners have, they just need to put in a decent effort to take this at home, and I expect they can handle that task.

💰 Pick: Arsenal ML (-135)

 

Man United-Burnley

Man, apparently the books don’t listen to me at all. That might be a good thing though, because my life is a lot easier when I can just keep picking the same wins over and over. To recap last week again, Burnley’s defense is not what it was earlier in the season, and they’re hemorrhaging goals from every possible oraface (think defensive oraface, weirdo). They’ve given up at least one goal in each of their last 5 games, and are now facing a United team who are second in the league in goals scored, averaging 2 per game. United should easily put up 2 here, and could cover this over on their own. But, on the other side, there’s reason to think Burnley might be able to snatch a goal of their own. United’s defense isn’t all that stellar, and it’s the only reason they aren’t contending for a title right now. On top of that, Burnley has found a bit of rhythm offensively, and they’ve scored in each of their last 5 Premier League games. You can see why I like the over a lot here, and at just -134 it feels like a damn solid payout for the type of play we’ve been getting from these two sides. I see this game having a bit more danger in stalling out than the one above, since Burnley might legitimately fear for their dignity and put 11 guys behind the ball all game to try to salvage some self respect. If that happens, its possible they rekindle some of their old defensive form and limit United. But nothing about the way they’ve played recently suggests that it will happen, and I wouldn’t make the mistake of getting stuck in the past. It looks to me as if the books haven’t quite caught up at these odds, and I like this one to cash comfortably.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-134)

 

Leeds-Liverpool

Liverpool are an enigma right now. They’ve won their last three Premier League matches, but they barely managed to claw out their win over Villa last time out and they’ve been too inconsistent on the year to fall in love with them. On top of that, they just lifelessly sputtered out of the Champions League in the quarter finals, which is going to have an affect on the team. What effect, exactly? Well, its hard to say. It could motivate them to push for a top 4 spot, but it just as easily could be a demoralizing event that sucks the life out of them for a bit. Call me an optimist (at least for my own biases), but I’m going with the latter. Liverpool just haven’t done enough to make me fall in love with them, and Leeds have pulled out 3 straight wins including that improbable City victory that will boost their spirits. So, in spite of the fact that they don’t really have all that much to play for any more, I expect they can stay with Liverpool at Elland Road in this one. A tie seems like a plausible result, and even a Leeds win wouldn’t shock me too much. Leeds will always have defensive issues due to their style of play, and Liverpool will likely put in at least a goal. But Leeds also take their chance offensively and don’t play scared against bigger clubs. I see this being a fun game to watch, and I like Leeds to come away with at least a point. For +165 on that bet, I love the value we’re getting here too. Look for Leeds to continue their form and throw another wrench in the Top 4 race.

💰 Pick: Leeds +0.5 (+165)

 

Villa-City

At first, I found it hard to make heads or tails of this game aside from the fairly obvious “City will probably win.” Be my guest if you want to throw some money at it at -270, but the value isn’t really there for the money. What I do like, however, is for City to keep a clean sheet. Despite an overachieving season, Villa have never been all that great offensively, and they’re at their best when games stay low scoring. On top of that, they know they just don’t have the horses to run with this City team, so I can’t imagine they start throwing bodies forward and expose themselves defensively. Despite losing and giving up two goals last week against Leeds, City always looked better and they conceded on an impressive strike off the post that went through a defender’s legs, and then on a breakaway as City pushed everyone forward up a man to desperately try for a winner. On the whole, though, teams will get very few chances against this City defense, and you have to be extremely clinical to finish them. Leeds are, given their style of play and offensive prowess, but Villa really aren’t aside from moments of brilliance by Graelish. After a solid victory in the Champions League to move on to the semi finals, I expect Guardiola to keep City compact and focus on getting things back in order on the defensive end of the ball, because the Premier League is essentially a formality at this point. City should win this, but I don’t know if they have enough fire in them right now to put up 3 or 4, which is why I’m staying away from the over. In stead, I like City to hold off an average-at-best Villa offense and walk away with none conceded.

💰 Pick: Villa Under 0.5 Goals (+116)

 

️

⚾ Major League Baseball

Braves-Cubs

Well folks, time to adapt with the times (Seasons?) once again. I’m looking for more ways to add picks onto my gambling slate with the death of CBB, and baseball is a solid gambling source for me. I haven’t made picks here yet because lines come out for Saturday on Friday afternoon, which means I have to scramble to make picks at the last minute, but I’m willing to do it for all of you. I’ll start by just dipping my toe in a little with one pick to prove my worth, and maybe we can build from there. I love this matchup for the Braves. The Braves have massively underperformed so far this year, but they have one of the best lineups in baseball and are capable of putting up a crooked number on any given night. A matchup with Trevor Williams, whose sporting an impressive 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, should be a welcome sight in that department. Also significant, is the Cubs just aren’t very good. Back in 2017 when they won the World Series, it felt as if this team had the bones to be competitive for the next 5+ years. But since then, things have gone pretty miserably from underperforming players to bad GM decisions, and they’re pretty much a shell of what they were. While Huascar Ynoa isn’t exactly an ace, he’s had two good starts this year where he gave up a combined 1 ER, and if he comes even close to that type of form he should be able to handle this Cubs lineup. And at just -122, you’re getting better value than you would normally because of that slow Braves start. Overall, I love this bet and I think Atlanta handles it comfortably.

💰Pick: Braves ML (-122)

Ready to join a Sportsbook and start betting online? We’ve listed the best available Welcome Offers for each legal betting state below.

The best offers in your state👇