Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Premier League, Champions League and College Hoops Picks

It's time for me to admit something to all of you. Something, as a sports gambling-based writer, that I think you all deserve to know.

Hell, it may even ruffle some feathers up at corporate where all those stodgy, suit-wearing titans look down from their ivory tower (just kidding, I met them once via Zoom and they wear t-shirts, but I digress). What is my big revelation? Is it that I actually have no idea what the fuck I’m doing after my absolutely horrendous Premier League performance last week (sorry about that, guys)? Not quite. I have never claimed to be a gambling messiah and, as I said last week, this character really isn’t meant to be about guaranteed winners (I am still very far up in EPL picks though, so don’t jump ship just yet).

No, the difficult truth I need to admit is that I fucking HATE tennis. I pride myself on the fact that I’m willing to watch and bet almost any sport (yes, I am aware that is not something I should be proud of and I do not care one bit). Cricket? Sure, I’ll turn it on for a few wickets. Golf? I could sit on my ass for 7 hours and watch a round. Hell, I even can enjoy some bizarre Olympic kayaking events once every few years. But tennis? Not a snowballs chance in hell I sit down and watch a whole match. I don’t know what it is, or why I can’t get into it, but everything about the sport bores the living hell out of me. And so, when the first Major of the year comes around, which is the Australian Open no less, I still can’t bother myself to be interested. Watching them hit a little green ball back and forth for two hours, no matter how athletic it may be, just doesn’t do it for me. So while my loyal Gold Diggers may be dying for some in depth discussion and gambling analysis on tennis, I will not be able to provide you with any of it. I apologize for the pain this may cause you, but I’d rather quit than spend 5 minutes trying to research and analyze professional tennis picks. Once again, Dimers probably has all of the solid statistical analysis you could ever want right on the site anyway, and you don’t need my babbling for that.

Now, on to the nuggets! ⤵️

⛏️ So, uh, yeah... about the Premier League last weekend. I think I mentioned something about “what goes up must come down” in a different context, but boy did that apply to me. Not a good showing at 1-5.

⛏️ That’s gambling I suppose, even the best (not that I’m claiming to be anything close) have losing weeks. But it still stings just as bad. I take it personally when I give out picks that lose, the same way I get personal pride when I give picks that win.

⛏️ On to the actual games. What a nightmare Liverpool has Saturday morning. A beautiful Firmino assist for Salah and everything looked peachy. And then it imploded in the span of 10 minutes.

⛏️ A special shout out to Allison for some terrible goalkeeping on the second goal. I was a goalkeeper in a past life (well, this life, but it feels like a long time) and I can tell you it was a truly impressive lack of judgment to go screaming out for that ball. His defender didn’t exactly help him, but that one is on the goalie.

⛏️ I don’t know that anyone has a damn clue what Palace are doing any more. This team is capable of solid soccer, but also capable of abysmal outings. And losing 3-0 to Burnley at home qualifies for the latter.

⛏️ Oh Tottenham. What do I even say any more. But, despite the loss, this result doesn’t hurt as much as some others for two reasons. One is I had no hope they would do anything but lose to begin with, and the other is that each goal was caused by terrible individual mistakes (2 by Hugo, 1 by Sanchez). But 3-0 losses never feel good.

⛏️ That said, the penalty call, which you could argue changed the game (not that I think Spurs would have avoided losing), was absolutely embarrassing. Hojbjerg defended well, had HIS foot stepped on, and the ref awarded a penalty. That is the definition of failing at your job, especially when we have VAR to fix those mistakes.

⛏️ Well, Villa, I stuck up for you and you made a fool of me. At no point in that match did they ever look like they had a shot, and Brighton probably walked away feeling pretty crappy about a draw. Shows me for believing in a team led by a stupid looking penguin (aka Jack Graelish).

⛏️ It really doesn’t feel like that long ago when Southampton were near the top of the League, riding high. 6 straight losses later, and things aren’t so happy for Saints fans. I feel your pain, guys.

⛏️ The most surprising result of the weekend was probably West Brom drawing United. More specifically, the fact that West Brom managed to only give up 1 goal was something of a minor miracle. When the Baggies scored 2 minutes in I though my Over 3.5 was a LOCK. The fact that United couldn’t break down a back line basically made of cardboard cutouts is pretty embarrassing.

⛏️ Oh, and after the game, Harry McGuire, bless his soul, had the audacity to claim that United have been unfairly treated by VAR. The problem? They’ve had more calls overturned in their favor by VAR than any of the “Big 6” clubs this season. The irony of anyone from United complaining about unfair preference is laugh-out-loud funny though.

⛏️ And then Arsenal came out and blew the fucking doors off Leeds. Jesus guys, way to ruin my whole fucking weekend. Not only did it kill my bet, but now Arsenal fans are cheery again.

⛏️ AND THEN Everton got dismantled by Fulham, which was just the icing on the Prospector Doomsday cake. By the end of that game, I was pretty much curled up in the fetal position praying for it to end.

⛏️ Chelsea won again. Because of course they did. Soccer is pain.

⛏️ City can’t miss right now. Everton gave them a fight for about 60 minutes, but at the end of the day City is just too good for anyone in the Prem. Give ‘em the trophy already.

⛏️ I started off my college basketball picks with a bang, when Northeastern comfortably handled Towson in my opening selection. Good thing it only took a few hours for my next pick, the Villanova Wildcats, to get blown out and ruin all the fun.

⛏️ It hurts me to say it, but OSU is really good. Why do THE worst people get nice things (see what I did there...)?

⛏️ Virginia winning games with 60 points will always suck. Fun fact, I went to the 2019 National Championship game, and they had maybe 100 student fans there and an almost entirely empty student section. I have zero respect for that fan base any more.

⛏️ Missouri apparently can’t have nice things. They got all the way up into the top 10, but decided to try and piss it away as fast as possible. Don’t worry though, because losing to Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia will bring you back down real quick

⛏️ Same goes for Tennessee. Another underperforming SEC school that continues to shoot itself in the foot (although it's probably better than their football program, which shoots itself in the face).

⛏️ Tough weekend for Wisconsin, who got outscored by 20 in the second half to blow a double digit lead to Michigan. I guess Michigan is just a basketball school now?

⛏️ Virginia scored 60 points again midweek. This time, it just happened to be in a 21-point loss to FSU. That one feels much better

⛏️ Apparently saying nice things about Houston a couple of weeks ago was the kiss of death. Another rough loss for the Cougars to Wichita is not helping their cause.

⛏️ Something about Gonzaga winning twice again. Use your imagination.

⛏️ European soccer has returned, and I will jump back in for those storylines. Things started with a real bang as well, after Barcelona got DEMOLISHED by PSG. Nice to see Pochettino show up and win somewhere else. Doesn’t hurt at all....

⛏️ Liverpool handled Leipzig comfortably. I want to be mad, but I find it hard not to agree with the average German fan who hates a team built on corporate branding. There was no winner to be had here.

⛏️ Porto had a huge night and really deserved a better result than a single goal victory over Juventus. That second leg is going to be a blast.

⛏️ Haaland is very good at soccer. Very. Can’t wait to see him lace the boots up for Bayern next year when they inevitably steal him.

⛏️ I’ll give the Draymond story a whack because it was too big not to discuss. At the end of the day, the bottom line is “everyone wants more.” I don’t blame him for arguing for players (even if those arguments were a stretch), and fans telling him to just shut up and be an employee makes no sense for an athlete. At the same time, he probably should at least acknowledge the good parts of being an athlete (money, playing a game for a career) before complaining about how tough the double standard is. A little self awareness would have gone a long way, but I have no problem with trying to use the leverage NBA players have for their benefit.

⛏️ Spring training started. I absolutely do not have time for your bullshit right now, baseball. Come see me in May when we have something real to talk about.

⛏️ Well, I will discuss Tatis Jr’s 340 MILLION dollar deal. What a world. Seems crazy to me to commit to anything for 14 years. I can hardly commit to plans for the weekend, and this guy is locked in with San Diego until 2035. But hey, I’m not a baseball GM, so what do I know?

⛏️ Carson Wentz received some good news this week, getting the fuck out of the hell-hole known as Philadelphia. Unfortunately, he’s going to be stuck in Indianapolis now. It’s a win-win trade, with the Eagles moving on and getting a couple of solid draft picks, while the Colts get to take a shot on a guy with some upside. Probably doesn’t make any team much better in the short term, but a solid outcome all around.

 

⚽ English Premier League

Southampton-Chelsea

Remember that thing I said about Southampton having a no good, very bad day (more like month and a half)? Well, with the walls crumbling, you would think that the odds would be very favorable for the Saints. But somehow, even with Chelsea winning 4 straight, the Londoners are just -135 at home. It feels dirty to do it, but those odds are too good to pass up. Now, let me clarify, and say that this pick is right because of Chelsea, not because of how bad the Saints are. Southampton have had a tough run, but they were always a mid-table team and the only strange part is how they ended up here. What matters to me is what we’re seeing out of Chelsea. This side has underperformed all season, but, shockingly, bringing in a seasoned, winning coach was a boost compared to the club hero who had almost no experience. And you can clearly see that difference on the defensive side of the ball, where Tuchel has sured up their tactics. Since his arrival, Chelsea have given up just 1 Premier League goal, and are facing a Southampton side who have struggled to score. While Chelsea are still dealing with problems in front of the net, the most notable being the inability of Timo Werner to produce at even close to the clip he is capable of, they are still finding enough quality to get them over the line. Overall, Chelsea are also just the better team and need wins to keep themselves in the top 4. I don’t see any reason to expect they don’t win this game, and at -135 the value is still there.

💰 Pick: Chelsea ML (-135)

 

West Brom-Burnley

This game is important. And the fact that this game is important tells you everything you need to know about why Europe got it right with the relegation system and the US got it wrong. 2/3 of the way through a season, a match between two teams in the bottom quarter of the league would be the last thing you wanted to watch in American sports. Both teams would have phoned it in and would be prepping for an extra long offseason vacation, untroubled by silly things like playoffs. But here, West Brom is out there fighting for its god damn life while Burnley is holding on desperately to stay in place. It makes for great viewing, even if neither team is very good. That said, it also makes games harder to pick. Fear can do crazy things to people, and players afraid of falling into the Championship and taking pay cuts are liable to produce unexpected results. So, while I’m extremely cautious about picking a winner when you have two teams that are both going to be playing like wild animals backed against a wall, I also can use that information to find value in the Total. And, at +126, I love the over 2.5 here. The Baggies have the worst defense in the League, but they packed it in against United and managed to hold things together because they knew that they weren’t going to find success by trying to outscore the Red Devils. They face the opposite problem in this match, where their biggest challenge will be breaking down a fairly stout Burnley defense. That makes me believe that West Brom will push more, especially because they need 3 points here, which will leave their already porous defense even more vulnerable. Burnley aren’t exactly high scoring, but I think they can handle a goal or two in this game. Similarly, I expect West Brom to push for goals and find some success against a Burnley defense that has only kept one clean sheet in five. Betting on 3+ goals from two teams who average less than a goal per game is a dangerous approach, and this certainly isn’t my favorite pick of the week. But it has solid value and the matchup sets up to be higher scoring than normal.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+126)

 

Everton-Liverpool

The Merseyside Derby is one of the best rivalries to watch in the League. I don’t know what it is about this game, but it always seems to be great viewing. It sets up to be even more fun right now, because neither team has got a fucking clue what it's doing. Liverpool have lost 3 straight, while Everton have lost games to two of the bottom 4 in their last 5 matches. The play? I like both teams to score. Liverpool, despite their struggles, have scored in four of their last 5 and always are a threat on offense. They are even more of a threat to give up goals though, and have recorded no clean sheets in that span. Without Van Dijk this defense has struggled heavily, and their high line tactics have failed to keep teams in check without one of the most athletic players in the league (a shocker, I know). With both teams in a bit of a rough patch in need of a win to right the ship, I expect you see each take some chances as well. I feel fairly good about the value at -134, especially because it gives you better odds than over 2.5 at -154. 1-1 or 2-1 seems to be a good estimate on this one, so I’ll walk away from the Line and Total and take the prop play.

💰 Pick: Both Teams to Score (-134)

 

West Ham-Tottenham

I haven’t had a ton of luck betting Tottenham recently, so be sure to remember that when reading this. I try to be open and think through my biases, but as anyone reading knows they put my brain in a pretzel some days. Putting that aside, I’m a big fan of this over. Spurs defense is falling apart at the seams, especially with Reguilon out, and any side with Dier or Sanchez at center back is liable to give up a bad goal or two on any given night. The odds are actually probably higher than just “liable” since its happened in four of their last 5 games, all of which were losses. West Ham, meanwhile, are humming along in 5th place due primarily to a surge in goals over the last month. They’ve put away 3 goals themselves in 3 of their last 5, and have found some solid rhythm on that end. Defensively they’re solid, but Kane and Son are still two of the best attackers in the League and could do some damage of their own. If things start off slow this match might stall out and see a 1-0 or even 0-0 score line, but if a goal comes in the fist 25 minutes the momentum should kick this game into gear and get us to the over. I think the danger that both pose offensively will lead to at least one early goal, and I like the over to hit comfortably here.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)

 

Arsenal-Manchester City

Well, it looks like the days of getting anything decent out of a Manchester City line are long gone. Even after a solid showing from the Gunners last time out, City are still -195 at the Emirates and they probably deserve it. If we’re being honest, it actually doesn’t seem generous enough, and while I’m generally apposed to taking some of these low-payout Money Lines that every handicapper in the world will tell you to bet, I actually think the value is right here to make it my choice. While -195 means you’re basically getting a 1 to 2 payout, for a game between the top team in the League (and maybe Europe at the moment) and a mid-table side that kind of money isn’t all that bad. City were in the -300s for their midweek match against Everton, who sit 3 spots ahead of the Gunners, meaning the number probably should be higher. More important, though, is (obviously) whether you can get the actual result you want. The answer is yes. Arsenal papered over some cracks in their victory over Leeds, but scoring against City is a very different challenge. Leeds has given up 3 times as many goals as Manchester City, who concede around 0.6 goals per game. Even worse, City’s offense has shifted from methodical and lethargic to dangerous and clinical, despite De Bruyne being out of the lineup. Arsenal need to hold City to a goal or less to keep this game in reach, but that has happened just once in the last 8 Premier League games that City has played. So while you may have to pony up a bit more buy in here, its worth the money on this one.

💰 Pick: Manchester City ML (-195)

 

⚽ Champions League 🏆

Athletico-Chelsea

Time to flip-flop on that Chelsea optimism (thank god, it hurts me to pick those pricks) and bet against them in the Champions League. I apologize for not giving any picks for last week’s games, I honestly just forgot that the knockout stage was starting (and its probably for the best, with how bad I was). The difference for me in this game is how good Athletico are, particularly on the defensive end. The Spaniards not only sit on top of La Liga, but have given up just 14 goals in 22 League games. Against a Chelsea team who is struggling to score at the moment, that shows me that there’s good value on a game that the books see as close to a toss up. Athletico ML sits at +160 to Chelsea’s +190, and with the game being played in Madrid, I think there is solid value here on the home side. That said, there is definitely a danger this game stale mates, especially in the front end of a two-leg tie, and I’m not willing to get that aggressive on Athletico in a matchup where goals will be hard to come by. So I’m going with an old friend, Draw No Bet, which is -122 for Athletico. You still get a solid payout if they win, but its worth the money to buy the extra protection against a draw.

💰 Pick: Athletico Madrid, Draw No Bet (-122)

 

Atalanta-Real Madrid

Man, I’m gonna sound like some sort of La Liga homer here, but I’m betting Real Madrid hard. It hasn’t been the best season for Real, but they’re still one of the better sides in the world and finished first in the toughest group in that stage. They are second in La Liga with a solid goal difference and decent form over the last month. Atalanta, while still a respectable side, have not had the same type of season they did last year. They did well to make it back to the knockout round with a Second place finish over Ajax, but they sit in 6th place in Serie A and have struggled to find the same form that got them to third in the league and within minutes of the UCL semis in 2020. It's probably a fairly popular pick just because of the name, but Real to win at +150 is good value for the matchup.

💰 Pick: Real ML (+150)

 

🏀 NCAAM Basketball 

Wofford-Western Carolina

I know, another game you’re dying to watch. Well, last week my bet on crappy teams won, and my bet on a “big” game didn’t even come close, so hush up. Also, the bootleg book I use with early lines only gave games for the afternoon windows, so they left me out to dry on anything later. I’m not worried though, because I LOVE the Terriers here. Conference away games are tough, whether you play in the Big 10 or in the Southern Conference. But Wofford is a much better team that WCU, in particular on the defensive end. The Catamounts give up almost 80 points per game, and I expect Wofford to feast on their shaky defense and score effectively all afternoon. So why is the line so small, considering Wofford is in second in the conference and WCU is at the bottom? I think it has a lot to do with Wofford’s recent performances, which have been anything but stellar. They’ve lost three of their last five, all to middle of the road teams. But I think that’s more of a reflection of the fact that basketball season is a grind, and even the best teams will hit rough patches. While the Terriers have had their issues, the difference in quality between them and WCU is just too great for the hosts to overcome even if Wofford struggles. I think they win by closer to 10, and I love the value here at only a 3 point spread. Wofford -3

💰 Pick: Wofford -3

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