Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Premier League and College Hoops Picks

Raise your hand if you’re a dumbass!

Yes, I know it may have been extremely obvious to any and all of you, but the guy behind this blog isn’t always the sharpest knife in the drawer (is that offensive to dull knives? Hard to tell what’s allowed these days). I’m writing about it specifically, though, because I just had one of those moments where I remind myself of how truly stupid I am. You see, despite being told to do so from the day you open up your first computer (or in my case, turn on your first desk top), I have a very fun habit of forgetting to save my documents. Now, since I’m no longer a student and I have a swarm of IT people at my fingertips to recover lost work documents, that hasn’t been an issue for a very long time. It probably hasn’t for most of you either. But let me tell you, when you start writing weekly articles that are 7 pages long, it’s a really good idea to make sure you save things. And, uh, yeah. I’m guessing you can fill in the details on this story. 

Its really a testament to my ability to completely ignore, or just not care about, my glaring faults. And, if we’re being honest, those attributes are beneficial some days (that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it). It helps me overcome failure, for one, something I do pretty regularly (both in gambling and life). It would be hard to survive in the gambling world if you can’t handle loss on a consistent basis. It also helps me on a larger scale with things like the Prospector character. I hang my hat on writing funny and interesting articles, but I’d be a fool if I thought every joke landed or every article was perfect. If I spent my days worrying about whether or not these pieces had flaws (and they do, trust me), they would certainly never get published and I’d probably never even get off the ground. And yet, here I am, with a sward of devoted and ferocious followers ready to have my back at any turn (right? Where did everyone go?).

So that’s the really generous spin I’m going with right now, because my blindness can also be an absolute nightmare. Exhibit A is the four pages of writing I just lost because I couldn’t be bothered to save a draft before I started this week’s blog (to be fair, the intro was boring anyway, so it might be for the best). I could go deeper into my more problematic traits, like my ability to offend people by saying things that probably should be left unsaid, or my tendency to make jokes at the absolute worst times. But hey, you guys aren’t therapists (well, maybe you are, I don’t know) and we aren’t here to talk about my problems. But let it be known that I am aware that I am not perfect, and I’m willing to openly share that with all of you. I just also happen to not care.

Enough? Yeah, probably. Nuggets! 🔽

• Lets kick things off with basketball. I know, I’m normally not good at change, but we’re hitting the golden period of NCAAB and it deserves the spotlight.
  
  
• I also want to get my terrible picks from my last blog out of the way early. Oklahoma blew a big lead at home, but that wasn’t nearly as bad as UNC easily beating FSU. How the Tar Heels can go from losing to Marquette, to beating FSU, and then back to losing to Syracuse, I will never understand.
  
  
• Oh, and speaking of Syracuse, they need to pick a fucking side. I can’t handle the emotional roller coaster. I was ready to pack it in on Saturday after a tough loss to GT, and then they come out and beat UNC and Clemson. Its going to be a stressful couple of weeks.
  
  
• Baylor finally lost. It was inevitable, and getting beaten at Kansas isn’t exactly embarrassing. Its just a testament to the fact that you can’t win every game unless you play in the WCC.
  
  
• Speaking of, Gonzaga won again. I hope you’re proud of beating up on Loyola Marymount. God does not approve.
  
  
• Illinois is making everyone believe again, but I feel like its just going to make their fall that much harder. The words “University of Illinois, National Champions” don’t sound real.
  
  
• Tough week for Wisconsin, who lost both their game against U of I and a midweek battle at Purdue. Maybe the Big10 is that good, but having a team who is 16-10 and 10-9 in conference be ranked in the Top 25 feels wrong.
  
  
• USC collapsing in major sports is a great annual tradition. We get it to start the year with basketball, and then end the year with their football crash and burn. Their loss to 9-11 Utah was a thing of beauty.
  
  
• Iowa is getting hot again, and that’s bad news for everyone else. On their best day this team can blow the doors off anyone in college basketball. OSU learned that the hard way.
  
  
• Villanova lost to... Butler? Can’t explain that one, just gonna walk away.
  
  
• Cade Cunningham is very good at basketball. Very good.
  
  
• Virginia won again with 62 point. And they are still the defending national champions. Why is life so unfair?
  
  
• Baylor-WVU gave OSU-Michigan a shot for game of the year, and might have actually been better. Two great teams, and they made it all the way to bonus time. Tough loss for WVU, but not one to hang your head over.
  
  
• Arkansas is good at basketball? That feels wrong.
  
  
• Don’t get caught with your pants down come tournament time on SDSU. This team is solid and can do some damage against the right matchups.
  
  
• It is a damn shame that UTEP couldn’t hold on to their double-digit second half lead against the Jayhawks. KU is about the only blue-blood program this year that hasn’t cratered, but I was hoping for one shining moment of failure.
  
  
• It was an interesting week for college coaches, so I guess I’ll address the two big events. The easier one is my boy Jim B, who managed to make himself look like a curmudgeonly asshole again. Anyone is surprised by him berating reporters at this point is just blind to the fact that he’s genuinely a dick. It's in his blood. Move on.
  
  
• Greg McDermott. This is a tough one to talk about, but I cover college basketball so I can’t shy away. What in the hell are you doing bud. We could argue all day about whether or not he meant anything offensive or it was just a dumb slip, but you get paid millions of dollars a year for your mental abilities and your leadership. If you aren’t smart enough to know not to talk about your predominantly black players staying on the plantation, you probably deserve to get fired. The man is lucky to have a job.
  
  
• Well, it was a winning week on the Premier League board. I’m back baby! (We’ll just ignore the catastrophic Sunday)
  
  
• City are unstoppable, but credit to West Ham for giving them a shot. Also, thank you both for hitting the BTTS before the first half whistle, that made my life a lot easier.
  
  
• I honestly have no idea how WBA won that game. Not only did Brighton miss two penalties, but they also had a goal called back on a VAR whistle review. Cant make that shit up.
  
  
• Well, Leeds-Villa was as boring as I expected. You’re welcome (unless you actually watched, then I’m also sorry)
  
  
• If Fulham-Palace finish 0-0 and nobody watches (which I assume was the case), did they even really play at all?
  
  
• Well, Leicester-Arsenal started perfect when the Foxes scored 6 minutes in. Then it all went downhill from there. Between that and my crippling hangover, it was not a good way to start Sunday morning.
  
  
• Tottenham won, which was nice, but you aren’t fooling me, assholes. It's going to take a lot more than beating Burnley to make things right. Nice of Bale to show up to the party though, it's about time.
  
  
• Chelsea-United was one of the worst games I’ve ever seen, made worse by the fact that I bet the over. Neither team even looked like they had a prayer of scoring.
  
  
• Sheffield got shutout again. Nice of you to give it an effort, guys.
  
  
• Everton beat Southampton. That’s about the only positive thing I could say about their performance. Might not have been convincing, but the bounce back win for me felt good. Doesn’t matter how you get there, just matters that you’re right.
  
  
• Wolves looked like they were going to do the impossible to start the mid-week games, then collapsed like a card tower in a soft breeze. City have the title, as sad as it is to say.
  
  
• I truly cannot believe I hit the under on Leicester-Burnley. I didn’t even deserve it, considering the game didn’t play out at all like I said it would. Fuck it, better to be lucky than good.
  
  
• I guess I should apologize to Sheffield, who managed to beat Villa even with a Red Card. I’ll try my best to be nicer to you, Blades (just kidding, I’ll still endlessly mock you until the day you get relegated).
  
  
• Palace and United like playing 0-0 draws I guess? I know the Eagles are just packing it in at this point, but United might want to try a little harder if the Champions League is important to them. What do I know, though, since my own team clearly doesn’t care.
  
  
• It wasn’t pretty but Spurs won again. 1-0 with an own goal and the worst hand ball VAR I’ve ever seen in my life. It's not so much the refs fault as it is the fact that rule is so damn terrible. But hey, I’ll enjoy the benefit.
  
  
• Unfortunately, no over though. But Everton won again, unconvincingly again. Not great when you can only beat Southampton and West Brom by a goal, but the money is still green.
  
  
• Another dud of a big match between Liverpool and Chelsea, with the garbage club pulling out a 1-0 win. Shit, you’re right, garbage club isn’t specific enough for that game. Garbage club that normally wears blue. 
• 5-3 on the week! I’m king of the Prospectors (which is much like being the the prettiest girl in Mobile Alabama, but its all relative I suppose).

 

️⚽️ Premier League

Arsenal-Burnley: Alright, I’ve gotten burned betting against Arsenal recently. Hard to ignore it, especially because of my personal allegiances. To anyone reading this who thinks I pick against them on bias, you’re wrong. At the end of the day, I care way more about being right on here than I do about rivalries. In fact, I feel even worse when I get those games wrong because I can see where someone would question my motives. Basically, that is a long winded way of saying I recognize it, but that you shouldn’t worry (other than the fact that I missed and losing is bad). Back to the game, you might think the logical next step here would be for me to do a “mea culpa” to the Gunners and bet them to win. That will not be the case. I actually like the over a lot in this one. Burnley have had a few bad performances on the defensive end recently, most notable a 4-0 shelling against Spurs. Even in the midweek game where they managed to hit the under, they looked fragile, while also showing some offensive threat up front. These two teams were defensively focused for the first half of the season, but have opened up their play a bit recently. It might be the wear of a long season, or an attempt to make changes to fix some glaring issues in both of these sides, but I don’t think this plays as the defensive battle some might expect. Arsenal have picked up the pace offensively and will push hard for goals in a game they feel like they need to win to stay relevant in the league. Burnley are probably feeling a bit more positive about their offense and know they can’t afford to start slipping right now so close to the relegation zone. So I think we get more than a few chances and 3-4 goals. The danger is this game stalling out in the first half, and Burnley deciding to pack it in for a draw after that, but a long as we get a goal before 45 minutes I think this covers.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-106)

Leicester-Brighton: Uhhhhh, what? It hasn’t been a good few weeks for the Foxes, but you’re telling me they’re the underdog in this game? The gap in the table between these two is 13 FUCKING PLACES. Brighton, while they have had a decent run, just lost to West Brom. This line is an absolute steal. Do I love it because I think Leicester will click and are a far better team than Brighton? Not exactly, but a 24-point gap between them shows that, on the whole, one of these teams is much better than the other. Leicester have injury issues, but even with those they still have much more talent that the Gulls. So while the books will look at poor recent performances from Leicester and some solid play from a Brighton side flirting with the drop, I think you would have to be a damn fool to bet against the foxes on these odds. I could talk your ears off about Brendan Rodgers tactical expertise, Vardy and Iheanacho’s class, or simply about the general differences between these two clubs. But, at the end of the day, the value is just too good here to not bet Leicester. It’s really that simple.

💰 Pick: Leicester ML (+185)

West Brom-Newcastle: This game is going to go one of two ways. Its either going to be an absolutely boring and pathetic display by 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Prem, or its going to be a bloodbath between two teams with horrific defensive records. Call me an optimist, but I’m betting on the latter. The panic button for both of them was hit a long time ago, but neither has really been able to right the ship due to some absolutely pathetic defending on a consistent basis. Hell, West Brom kept a clean sheet last weekend when they should have given up a minimum of two goals, and they’re still last in the league in goals against by over 10. Both of these teams know there are goals to be had against the other, and both are probably looking at this as a crucial 3 points for survival. I expect both to go for it heavily, and for this to turn into a track meet where two inept sides try to play a high school-style match with lots of offense and no defense. The danger is their offensive records are not great either, but from what I’ve seen this year, I think both of these defenses are worse than the opposing offenses. I think 2.5 covers comfortably.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+118)

City-United: Betting against City these days is like playing with lit dynamite, in the middle of a mine field, while standing beneath an active volcano. Odds of survival are slim at best. City hasn’t dropped points since the middle of December, and are pretty comfortably on their way to the title now. But this is a derby, and a game between two of the best teams in the League. While City haven’t dropped points, they also haven’t been particularly convincing over the last two weeks either, and at some point they will tie or draw someone. I think this is the game we see it. For one, City doesn’t really even need to win this game. United are the only team who can plausibly catch them, but a draw would pretty much be enough to cripple their title hopes. I think Pep would love to win, but a slow draw where they suck the life out of United works just as well. On top of that, United will be playing this game to win, and have the talent to compete if they bring the skill and energy they need. This side has quality all over the pitch, and its just a matter of whether they show up or not. They looked lethargic in their last two matches, but I expect them to come out motivated in this one and to at least give City a scare. It may not be a “put the farm on it” type of bet, but I think United to draw or win is a solid choice, and at +155 the value is very good in my eyes.

💰 Pick: United +0.5 (+155)

Everton-Chelsea: As they say, dance with the one that brought you. Well, doesn’t totally apply, but Everton gave me two solid wins last week and I’m not ready to hop off that bandwagon just yet. While I’m tempted to take on the absolutely absurd +500 ML on Everton, I don’t love them enough to throw money away on a win. That said, at +155 for Everton +0.5, the money is still great on them either winning or tying. These teams are about equal in the standings, but obviously that’s a bit misleading based on Tuchel’s arrival and the increase in results post Frank (RIP). However, they’re hardly a convincing side and they are still a shell of what they could be in front of the net. They haven’t scored more than two goals in a League game since December, and only managed a single goal in their two games this week. Everton haven’t looked all that much better, to be fair, but that tells me that the margins here will be slim and neither is likely to blow the doors off the other. So we’re looking at a draw or one goal win most likely, and Chelsea haven’t shown me enough as a team to feel confident in them. Just look at their two big victories in the last two weeks. They beat Athletico on a wild solo effort bycicle kick by Giroud, and then beat Liverpool on a similarly impressive solo effort by Mount. While having the type of talent that can make big moments is important, the build up and play as a team has been lacking, which should concern anyone betting on the Londoners. So while Everton may not be quite as good a side on paper, they’re completely capable of hanging with Chelsea the way that both are playing right now. Just look at the reverse fixture, where Everton won 1-0. The money on Everton is too good here, and I think this game is very likely to end up in a tie. Take the decent payout on Everton to cover. 

💰 Pick: Everton +0.5 (+155)

️⚽️ Champions League

Juventus-Porto: Betting second legs is a nightmare. The score in the previous match is telling but also can be red herring for how the second game will play out. Most of the time, I try to just shy away unless there’s a pick that I like. Here, I do. Porto came up with a surprising win over the Italian giants in Portugal, and Juventus will need to win here if they want to move on. They’re obviously favored to do so, but they showed last time out that their defense is not strong enough to rely on a clean sheet. In fact, they were probably lucky to have walked away only giving up two. That tells me that Juventus will continue to push for goals on top of the first when they get one, while they will also be susceptible to giving up at least a goal to Porto. The Portuguese will likely start the match trying to bunker themselves in to play for a 0-0 draw, but if Juve scores that all goes out the window and this game will open up. Considering the offensive firepower that Juventus has, I like them to break down that wall and to turn this game into more of an offensive battle. The value isn’t the best at -128, but its solid enough to make this bet worth the money.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-128)

️⚽️ Europa League

Arsenal-Olympiakos: Well, time to do something that will either be stupid or brilliant. It paid off a few weeks ago and I looked like a goddamn genius, but its also very liable to blow up in my face. But hey, I’m not one to shy away from my own stupidity, so I’m going to do it anyway. Despite talking about the offensive uptick from the Gunners, I Iike the under here a lot. Arsenal may have found some quality on that end of the pitch, but breaking down Olympiakos is an entirely different issue. The Greek’s have given up just 12 goals in their league play all season (yes, I know the Super League isn’t exactly La Liga), and only saw the total go over in one of their six Champions League group stage games. Now, their Europe League round of 32 wasn’t quite a defensive struggle (unless you count 9 goals in two games as “defensive”). But those matchups seem more like an outlier than a reflection of the way Olympiakos play, and I expect them to defend hard and angle for a low scoring match in the first leg. They’re the underdog in this tie, and they probably want to keep things close going into the second leg more than they want to go for a big win at home. I think they focus on stifling Arsenal’s offense, but probably don’t do a hell of a lot offensively either. Overall, just expect a dull affair.

💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)

🏀 College Basketball

Indiana-Purdue: Normally I give out a pick of the day for basketball, and it generally serves me well. So, I’m going back to that approach here and selecting a single game I like for Saturday. Worst case, I don’t lose more than 1 game like I did last week. In all seriousness, I love Purdue at -6 here. This team plays strong defense and rebounds well, and those factors have been crucial in their recent four game winning streak. They’ve been susceptible to bad hiccups, including losses to Minnesota and (to a lesser extent) Maryland, but with multiple wins over OSU and a win over the Badgers they’re showing they have serious talent. More importantly, Indiana’s season pretty much went off the rails over the last two weeks. While losing 5 out of 6 isn’t that surprising given the opposition, they have no real chance at making the tournament any more, and you have to expect that they’re ready to close the book on the year and move on. The program is in flux, and a lot needs to get fixed to bring them back to the upper tier of college basketball. So at just 6 points, with the Boilermakers right in a key point of the season that will define their seeding, I expect them to come out firing and take down Indiana by a margin closer to 10. (P.S. I am aware that some hack media outlets like ESPN consider Indiana to still be a “bubble team.” They’re 12-13 and 7-11 in conference, and have one ranked win all year. Give me fucking break).

💰 Pick: Purdue -6

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