...
...
Read Article
Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Final Four, Premier League and Champions League Picks: Betting picks, odds and promotions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Let’s talk beer. The weather is getting nice all over the country, and that makes me excited for two things; drinking outdoors, and golf (which also involves drinking outdoors, conveniently). The warm weather brings other good things too, like the start of baseball and cutting out of work earlier on Friday, but lets just focus on my alcoholism for today’s intro.
Now, I’m not saying that I have any problem with planting my ass on the couch and knocking back some beers in front of the TV in the winter, but something about a Saturday afternoon outside, drinking a few cold ones and soaking up some needed sunshine, just feels right come Spring. And with that added urge to drink, comes the added responsibility to drink right.
To be clear, “drinking right” has nothing at all to do with drinking responsibly. That should also be a goal for all of us (even if we let ourselves go over the line every once and a while because drinking is fun and we need a real hangover to remind us the importance of moderation), but my focus today is going to be on drinking well. I haven’t really dove into it here, but one of my other hobbies (I’m a complex and worldly man) is being involved in the craft beer world. For those who don’t know anything about it, it’s a wild fucking place. Brewery memberships, traveling for festivals, and beers selling in secret groups for hundreds (or even thousands) of dollars are things that beer nerds like myself are intimately familiar with. I don’t talk about it here often, both because its not entirely relevant to sports gambling and because Props and Hops already has that space covered well for Dimers (go check out the podcast if you haven’t, Matt Landes is phenomenal), but drinking is on the mind so I might as well talk about it.
Why am I discussing it now, in a sports gambling blog? I think its obvious, but sports, gambling, and drinking go hand in hand in a beautiful triumvirate of debauchery. While beer may not be inherently relevant to making picks or anything specific sports, most sports fans and gamblers are also drinkers and I have a special place in my heart for beer like so many other fellow degenerates. So I’m opening the door here to start discussing beer more, or for anyone who reads this to reach out to talk beer, because this blog is as much (if not more) about the enjoyment of sports and gambling as it is about actual picks. And if drinking is a part of the fun, and if I know a bit about it, I might as well start talking beer more when I can. If you’re not a drinker, well, good for you for having self control and I apologize for the completely irrelevant sidetrack. Beer talk ends shortly and its back to sports. For everyone else, I hope you get to crack a few cold ones while watching a game, mowing the lawn, or whatever else it is that the people who find my writing interesting like to do (I probably don’t want to know).
Now, lets talk Nuggets ⤵️
⛏️ Where to begin. I guess I’ll go with College Basketball, since it was clearly the bell of the ball over the last week, then I’ll catch all of the straggler points towards the end.
⛏️ Also, fuck international break. Premier League soccer is fun, watching the Faroe Islands get beaten by 14 goals is not.
⛏️ I touched on the Sweet 16 a bit in my Elite 8 picks, but they warrant extra discussion so I’ll throw in some more thoughts
⛏️ I actually didn’t do all that well, going 2-4 in my picks (sorry guys, I have bad days every once in a while too). That rough patch started with Loyola never making a real push against Oregon State, who may have been the most surprising tournament run I’ve seen in a long time
⛏️ Its really too bad Gillespie got hurt and we couldn’t see this team in the Tourney with him playing. Villanova was incredible before his injury, and they still managed to give Baylor a scare without him.
⛏️ Poor Oral Roberts. It was fun while it lasted, but this may have been a better way for them to go out, in stead of losing by 47 to Baylor. That would have been too depressing
⛏️ Syracuse sucked. There isn’t much else to say. This team was never all that good, but got really hot at the right time and won a couple of games. 46 points probably isn’t going to do the trick though
⛏️ Sunday started off with Part 1 of the 2-part series that is “Gonzaga is fucking scary and I may have been wrong about them.” Creighton got beaten to a pulp, and that might be putting it kindly
⛏️ FSU disappointed me one last time. I’ve been waffling back and forth on those fuckers all year, and every time I switched on them they switched their play too. I faded them in their first two games (split 1-1), then decided to back them against Michigan...
⛏️ The fact that UCLA had to go to OT to beat Alabama in that game was shocking. The only thing to say, really, is that free throws fucking matter. Alabama not only looked bad, but did it in the most embarrassing way possible by shooting under 50% from the line.
⛏️ Oregon was never as good as the one fucking game they had against Iowa. Thanks to everyone who made them a favorite though (seriously, The difference between 1-5 ad 2-4 is HUGE. I needed that)
⛏️ I went 2-2 in the Elite 8, so no harm no foul really. That said, I like to do better for all of you (and myself) than break even, so I’m not exactly a happy camper either.
⛏️ I thought I was in for a round of destiny after that Oregon State cover. What an amazing, unnecessary 3 to hit the spread at the end of the game. As for the actual match up, well, it wasn’t great until Oregon State made a push near the end, but they couldn’t hold it together in the last few minutes. You will not be missed, Beavers.
⛏️ Baylor-Arkansas was a snooze fest. The Bears led the whole way and Arkansas never really looked like they had it in them to overcome the talent of their opponent. Maybe not surprising from a team who barely beat Oral Roberts
⛏️ By the way, what the fuck is with this scheduling. I know there’s a West Coast, but starting games after 10 ET on week nights is a huge pain in the ass.
⛏️ Back to basketball, holy shit Gonzaga. That was one of the most impressive games of college basketball I have ever seen. USC had one of the best defenses in the country, and Gonzaga just laughed in their face on the way to a 49 point first half. The game never even got close to covering, not to mention being close on the actual scoreboard. Gonzaga might just be unbeatable right now.
⛏️ I was wrong, and I’ll admit it. I thought the lack of a real conference schedule would catch up to them, and they’d struggle more in the Tournament. Just, plain, wrong.
⛏️ I guess UCLA and Michigan was the “best” game of the bunch, in the sense that it was actually close at the end. I’d prefer my games to have more than 100 points, but beggars cant be choosers.
⛏️ Congrats to Mick Cronin for a hell of a run, he’s one of the great CBB guys and I love seeing him win. I’ll enjoy it now, because Gonzaga might actually murder him and his team on the court this weekend.
⛏️ On to the rest of the news. My Syracuse pain got even worse on Tuesday, when Kadary Richmond, Cuse’s best 2020 recruit, and Robert Braswell both entered the transfer portal. These are guys who were both averaging double digit minutes off the bench by the end of the year. Fucking sucks to lose them, and Syracuse is looking THIN for next season
⛏️ Generally, the transfer portal has just changed CBB. Its basically like free agency, and that shift is probably reflective of the way that NBA players have taken power in their sport unlike any other professional athletes. I don’t know that I want to commit to it being good or bad, but it does seem like guys basically want to get everything as freshmen or they leave. Who am I to say that they shouldn’t use their power, though.
⛏️ Roy Williams retiring deserves a comment, though I’m not sure its all that surprising. This has been coming for a couple years now, and it was looking like he’d had enough. The bigger story will be who replaces him, and gets to take over a program with all the recruiting power and history.
⛏️ Speaking of NBA free agency and players switching teams, the NBA does have an actual problem. Players are getting out of contracts mid season to build super teams, and both the Lakers and Nets look like they would be just as at home in an All Star game as they would as a regular team. Impressive that they found a way to make me even less interested in the sport.
⛏️ On to football, free agency finally settled down but now we’re stuck with months of combines and draft speculation. There’s nothing worse than listening to talking heads tell you what will happen in the draft, knowing that come the actual event they’ll get everything wrong
⛏️ It used to be a common joke that weather reporters had the best job, because they could be wrong all the time and it didn’t matter. NFL draft analysts have usurped that schtick.
⛏️ I’m going to be very careful with this one, but it’s impossible to ignore the DeShaun Watson situation any more. He’s now up to 21 women who have filed lawsuits against him, and things are looking worse every day. I wont make any statement about whether or not he’s guilty or how bad it is, but I can’t imagine any NFL team wants to be within a fucking mile of him right now.
⛏️ The MLB is starting. I’m much more excited as a fan than I am as a gambler. Betting baseball has never been a go to for me, but I may have to get more involved given that I write a sports gambling blog. TBD
And with that, time for some picks! ⤵️
🏀 Final Four picks
Alright, lets start off with the big ticket item for everyone this weekend. Saturday is the true beginning of the end of college basketball, and we’re blessed with a Final Four matchup between two teams who are separated by a slim.... 14-point line. Jesus. In all honesty, I want to bet against this Gonzaga. 14 points in a Final Four game feels astronomical, and my brain keeps cringing at the thought of giving up that many points. But I have to. This team has given me no other choice. I’ve bet against them in two of the last three rounds, thinking that their opponent would give them a real shot, but nobody even came fucking close to competing. More importantly, as we saw against USC, defense isn’t the fucking answer to solving this puzzle. USC was one of the best teams this year defensively and was undoubtedly a top team at defending in the paint, and they got fucking obliterated by Gonzaga down low. Now, they face a UCLA team who’s had a decent run but has been extremely lucky as well. They avoided Texas in the Second Round, faced an Alabama team who couldn’t hit a beach ball with a baseball bat in the Sweet 16, and then got to watch Michigan imploded down the stretch in the Elite 8. UCLA has talent in Juzang and Jacquez, but beyond those two they are extremely slim as far as scoring options, and 51 points isn’t going to fucking cut it this time around. Gonzaga gets a real fight when they have to face a team that has both an effective strategy and enough talent to competitively match up with them, but so far the “best” team Gonzaga has faced (as far as seeding) was Creighton, who looked completely hopeless against to Dogs. 14 points is a lot. As someone who has been advocating for the fact that Gonzaga is beatable for the last couple of weeks nothing makes me feel worse than sticking my tail between my legs and giving up 14 points on them in the Final Four. But I have to do it. UCLA is still an 11 seed, and they don’t have the horses to keep up in this race. If the Bulldogs play even half as well as they have been in the Tournament, they still win this by 20.
💰 Pick: Gonzaga -14
You can bet on Baylor (or any other Final Four team) to win their game outright and turn $5 into $200 if they get the dub! Sign up to FanDuel Sportsbook here to make your pick and cash in.
MORE: Baylor vs. Houston predictions
I just realized I flipped the games around and this is the early one. I’m sorry, but not sorry enough to go back and change the order. If you we’re ever wondering whether I plan and organize for these articles ahead of time (aside from the actual pick analysis), here’s your answer. This game sets up to be great. Well, kind of. It sets up to be great if Houston keeps their level of quality up, which will also mean that the game will be fairly low scoring and slow (since defense is clearly their biggest asset). Baylor is probably the second best team in the country, and they handled Villanova and Arkansas comfortably in their last two matchups, which is an impressive feat. The problem is, this game is the first time they’re going to face the type of team who can actually beat them. Baylor wins by killing you with stellar guard play that spreads your defense and then picks you apart with passing. Teams like Arkansas, who want to get out in the open floor and play a high-paced game, don’t have a chance if they have to defend hard in the half court and play methodically on the offensive end. But Houston has been prolific defensively so far in this Tournament, and, while they haven’t faced stellar competition up this point (the highest seed they’ve played was Rutgers), they just aren’t going to get blown out of the water by anyone. It’s a tough one to take, but I like the Cougars to cover. Baylor is a bit better overall, but they aren’t going to be able to rely on making easy baskets with backdoor cuts and open shooters because Houston will defend well and hound them on that end of the floor. Houston’s bigger issue is going to be offense, considering they haven’t eclipsed the 70-point mark since the first round, but I don’t see anyone pulling away from them even if they struggle a bit offensively (besides Gonzaga). More importantly, in this type of game, where we get less points overall, the odds of covering a bigger spread get lower. At 5 points, the number feels a bit too high for me and I don’t trust it. I expect this to go down to the last possession or two between two extremely talented sides, and I just don’t love Baylor enough to give up that many. As we saw in the first half against Villanova, they’re susceptible to forcing too many deep shots and, if they get behind against Houston, its going to be a way bigger challenge to come back than it was against an undermanned Wildcats team. I may not be betting the farm on this one, but Houston is the better value here.
💰 Pick: Houston +5
New DraftKings Sportsbook users can bet $1 and win $100 when you bet the moneyline in any Final Four game!
Sign up to DraftKings Sportsbook here!
⚽ Premier League picks
Lets ease our way back into the Premier League with a completely mismatched tie between one of the hottest and one of the worst (if not the actually the worst) teams in the League. I went into the week thinking that this wouldn’t even be a game worth betting, but there’s too much value on the total here for me to walk away. In their last 10 games, guess how many times these teams have made it over 2.5 goals? If you guessed a big old 0, then you would be correct. West Brom were a mess defensively to start the year, but after about a month of Sam Allardyce picking up the broken pieces they’ve managed to get their defensive structure back. It hasn’t done a whole lot for them in terms of winning games, since they still suck pretty badly (and are 10 points from safety with 9 to play), but things are at least less horrible than they were. Chelsea are strangely in almost exactly the same boat, with Tuchel coming in and making them a defensive stronghold on his arrival in January. The difference is they just happen to be winning games that way. But, while they’ve managed to get results out of it, they really aren’t scoring much and are content to play out 1-0 or 2-0 games. So at +120 for under 2.5, I feel good enough about the pick to take it, and the value for the bet is great. The real danger here is how much better Chelsea still are than West Brom, because the South Londoners have enough talent on paper to win this game by 5. But they haven’t played like that’s something they’re going to do and I’m not going to pick based on theoretical quality that hasn’t shown up. The bigger danger is West Brom stealing a goal, which would almost certainly be a death blow for the bet, but I just can’t see this team breaking down Chelsea. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Scum, with a little bit of fear for bettors near the end as West Brom push for goals and open themselves up.
💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (+120)
I was worried about this game, simply because I felt semi-obligated to bet it but knew the line would be a mess. City are good, and I think there’s a very decent chance they win, but at -190 its just not smart money to start throwing around against a Leicester team who is capable of giving them a test. The Over is a good enough choice to not care though, so that’s what I’m rolling with. Aside from a rough Manchester Derby, City have been scoring like crazy and are now the top scoring team in the league to go along with being the lowest conceding team in the league (shocker, they’re in first place). But while their defense has been good all year, its started to play second fiddle to the offense, and they’ve given up at least a goal in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games. Leicester, on the other side, are not all that strong defensively and are dealing with some injuries which will limit them on that end of the field (and everywhere, really). I expect they get broken down at least once or twice by City, but that they also give the away side issues on the defensive end through Vardy and Iheanacho. With James Maddison back from injury I like this team to put in at least one, and I think this game ends somewhere around the 2-1 mark, with both teams taking risks to score in a game where they know they probably need at least 2 to win. If things stall early then Leicester may try to sit back and hold out for a late 1-0 victory, but its not really in their DNA to do that, and I think you get some fairly enjoyable soccer between two of the best teams to watch in the league. Expect some balls in the net to go along with it, and you get some solid value at -126 for this total.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-126)
Want to actually bet on the outcome of the game in stead of the goal total? Fine, I’ll give you something to work with. Liverpool are simply a better team than Arsenal. They hit a hell of a fucking speed bump for a while (one of those rich neighborhood ones that can crack your suspension they’re so steep), but things are getting back on track and Liverpool know that they probably need the Top 4 to make it back into the Champions League. Arsenal have put up a valiant effort to drag themselves up to the upper half of the table (see, I can be nice to the gunners), but they still have holes on the defensive end and are at least a season away from being competitive with the top sides. Liverpool may not be the team they were a season ago, but they have the talent to get themselves into the Top 4 right now and they’re always dangerous on the offensive end. While being at the Emirates might normally skew things towards the Gunners, Liverpool have been so bad over the last couple of month at Anfield that they’re probably happy to be in London for this one. At the end of the day, Liverpool are a more complete team (as seen by making the Quarters of the Champions League) and have the quality to overpower Arsenal on their best day, who will have a nightmare of a time handling Salah and company. At positive odds, I like Liverpool to take this one and start their final push to get back up the table.
💰 Pick: Liverpool ML (+120)
I’ve been riding a system the last few matches that has paid off well for me, and it appears a couple of weeks off did nothing to shift the books’ view on Tottenham. This is just not the same team it was in November when they were playing for 1-0 victories. Ever since Mourinho gave up on his “Park the Bus” tactics and allowed them to play more aggressive, the scorelines on Spurs matches have shot up. Their new, attacking style has caused issues for opponents on the defensive end of the field, but also left Spurs way more exposed in their own defensive end. While they’ve gotten some great production out of Bale and Moura (on top of the already stellar Kane) because of it, leaving the likes of Davinson Sanchez and Eric Dier to fend for themselves is a recipe for disaster, and its showed. Spurs are liable to give up at least one goal every time out, and, against a Newcastle team who are now flirting dangerously with relegation, I expect the Magpies to cause them some problems on that end as they push for points. On the other side, Spurs could legitimately cover 2.5 themselves. Even without Son this squad is lethal, and Newcastle average almost 2 goals given up per game on the season. If Tottenham play well, they could easily leap that average and come out with 3 of their own. Between the two, it just seems like a fairly easy cover at 2.5 to me, and -116 is extremely generous for odds.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-116)
One of these teams has a lot of reason to care about this game, and the other doesn’t. Its really that simple for me. Fulham are teetering on an impressive survival effort that puts them just 2 points from 17th, and, despite some tough losses recently, they still look to be playing solid soccer. Villa, on the other hand, seem to have just accepted their fate as a mid table team and given up. After an impressive start to the year they’ve come crashing down to earth in the last two months and sit 10th, having scored just 2 goals in their last 4 matches. Europe (in any form) is basically out of reach, but they can be content with the fact that they survived another year and get to remain in the Prem next season. It’s the beauty of the relegation system at work, and here the lower ranked team actually look like a better bet to come out firing than the team in 10th. That said, we need to be responsible and take the best value for our money. Fulham ML (+230) looks nice, but its still a dangerous chance to be taking. That’s why, at -110, I’m going with Fulham +0.5. I think the cottagers are a good enough team to compete here, and they have way more to play for right now. Villa can produce on their best night, but nothing over the last few weeks has shown me they have much fight left in them any more. I expect Scotty Parker to have his side firing after a break (shockingly, not many Fulham players are internationals) and I think they at least take a point. At standard odds, I see this as a great bet.
💰 Pick: Fulham +0.5 (-110)
6 picks in a week is a lot, but this total is too damn good to pass up. West Ham score goals like you breathe air – consistently, and in order to survive. Their run to sit 5th this late in the season is nothing short of remarkable for a remarkably average club, and they’ve done it almost entirely on the offensive end. They have had some issues with giving up goals (look no further than their 3-3 draw to Arsenal last time out) which isn’t great for winning, but it is great for overs, which will be my choice here. The biggest challenge this bet faces is the fact that the other side, Wolves, are the most boring team in the League, and they have plodded along this year without ever really doing much of anything. But Wolverhampton still average about a goal a game, and have enough talent to make West Ham pay for their defensive frailties. The most concerning scenario here is that things never really get off the ground, simply because Wolves don’t care enough to make the match interesting, which is entirely possible. But after an international break I think both sides will have some extra push in them and West Ham’s style will create chances on both sides of the field. And at +142, the odds are incredibly generous here. I love this one, and I will be hammering it (see what I did there).
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+142)
🏆 Champions League picks
Porto-Chelsea
WARNING: every time I bet the line/spread on a Chelsea game, I lose. Seriously, its more than just an unfortunate coincidence at this point, so I’m putting everyone on notice ahead of time. I care about you all, and you deserve to know. That said, the line on this game, as I see it, is absurd. Porto may not be as talented as the other remaining sides in the competition, but this team just took out Juventus so they aren’t exactly pushovers either. Add in the fact that they’re playing a Chelsea team who barely scores, and giving them Even odds at +0.5 in Portugal is just too good to pass up. Chelsea by no means need to win this game, and will probably be content to suck the life out of Porto for a draw and return home for the second leg. On top of that, they just aren’t a threat to score that much, and if Porto put one goal in at home they’re almost guaranteed to cover this line. With what I’ve seen from the Portuguese side in this competition, they have enough to give big teams a scare and will come out and take a few good swings at Chelsea. My thought on the most likely result is a 1-1 draw, and I could even see Porto stealing a win here. So at that value for them to either draw or steal the points (or whatever you want to call them in a two-leg tie), I feel really good about this one.
💰 Pick: Porto +0.5 (Even)
Bayern-PSG
Lewandowski’s injury isn’t good for Bayern right now, but give me a break. This team has been near unbeatable for the last two years, and one injury isn’t enough to make them a positive odds bet in the motherland. More importantly, I just don’t believe in PSG that much. They embarrassed Barcelona in the last round, but that side is a shadow of what it used to be and it isn’t as impressive as it seems on paper. More importantly, the body of work for PSG this year isn’t all that great either. They’re tied for first in a French top division that they should easily run away with every year based on money alone, and they haven’t looked particularly inspiring aside from some guy named Mbappe. So while the bookies see this as a fairly even match, I will be hammering Bayern at home. The Germans have dismantled every team they’ve faced, and other players will pick up the slack in Lewa’s absence. Don’t think too much and bet the stronger team here.
💰 Pick: Bayern ML (+105)
Ready to join a Sportsbook and start betting online? We’ve listed the best available Welcome Offers for each legal betting state below. The best offers in your state👇
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
Advertiser disclosure