Prospector Sam's Nuggets – English Premier League Picks

The Prospector is back, and he's now 3D. Check out his weekly, free written soccer picks as well as a video of him talking through them!

Well, times they are a changing. I chose to start writing, as apposed to creating other types of content, because it let me take my passion for sports and gambling further while still remaining anonymous. I’ve never had any interest in fame or having my face plastered all over the interweb for everyone to see and, in all honestly, I’m basically just here for my own enjoyment. I write articles that I find funny, tweet when I feel like it, and do pretty much everything I want on my own schedule. In fact, even if some institutional sports website came along to try to get me to write for them, I don’t think I’d ever fucking take the gig because I like doing what I do (on my own time) way too much. Plus, I doubt I’d find a group of people like the Dimers crew that both are fun to have around and who put up with my shenanigans.

That said, one of the core principals I try to hold on to, particularly in this “hobby,” is to always try new things when the opportunity presents itself. That’s why, despite having shied away from doing anything but writing, I took the opportunity to start branching out into other social media when a follower of the blog came to me with an idea (and said he would do all the leg work...). Unfortunately for Mitch, a seasoned video professional, I still have an adamant stance against putting my face on the internet in connection with this character, but we produced our first of (hopefully) many videos/interviews/mini-podcasts this week. Now, this isn’t some grand transition away from writing to focus on other content. While the whole world seems to be fixated on video on audio, my favorite part of the Prospector will always be the writing. But I also recognize that I need to find new ways to reach people and to help Dimers on their path to glory. Which is why dear Mitch and I will be going forward with this endeavor, that will grow and develop as we figure out what the hell we’re doing. Seriously, I don’t think either of us has any plan here at all, and that’s ok.

The whole idea of trying this is a bit scary for me, if we’re being honest, but also extremely exciting. I have no problem putting myself out there and sharing my opinions, but I also don’t get to hide behind a keyboard when I produce content that people can see or listen to. Whether I like it or not, though, it seems to be a necessary step to get people to consistently connect with what I do. Its become fairly obvious to me that people have a hard time engaging with these massive articles, simply because there’s SO MUCH in them. I hope people like the writing, and I think there’s a consistent reader base, but I want to find more ways to grow this character and I want people who don’t like reading (which I totally understand) to follow too. And short videos seem like the perfect outlet for those type of sports gamblers. Now, you wont be seeing my face any time soon. I still want to keep out of the spotlight and hold some amount of separation between the real person and Prospector Sam, but I hope this new project will be a fun addition that brings more people into the Gold-Digger kingdom. Or maybe it bombs completely and I go back to doing what I do best? There’s really only one way to find out....

For now, let's just get back to the basics with the return of the Nuggets ⤵️

⛏️ Ok, lets talk soccer. I missed last week so I’ll just generally get up to speed with what’s going on.

⛏️ That’s probably going to be the format moving forward too. Less “play by play,” more “big ticket items”

⛏️ To start, what a hot week from yours truly. No misses all week and a sweet 4-team parlay that hit at +326. I may not have a lot of variety in what I’m picking these days (which is entirely the books’ fault for posting the night before games), but I’m hitting when I do take swings

⛏️ The relegation battle is basically done. Fulham and WBA still technically have life, but they’re like that knight in Monty Python with no arms or legs at this point. Probably not much of a chance at winning the good fight.

⛏️ Which means its all about Europe now. And, boy, is it a clusterfuck. Chelsea and Leicester should be able to hang on for those last two spots, but 4 games is still a lot of time for things to go wrong. Should be a fun run in.

⛏️ I always knew United fans were idiots, but they took that to a whole new level this weekend. Not only did they get the best game of the week cancelled, they did it to try to get the owners of the club to sell. As if that would fucking do anything...

⛏️ Guys, I get that you wish soccer wasn’t a business and it could go back to the 1950s, but that aint fucking happening. And you don’t want it to, because that money is the reason United are so good. Take your crocodile tears somewhere else.

⛏️ In other news, a HUGE thank you to Roma for hiring Mourinho and taking a massive chunk out of what Spurs would owe him if he weren’t employed. Oh, and good luck with that hire. From personal experience, I wouldn’t be looking forward to the next 18 months.

⛏️ Speaking of Italian soccer (twice in one article, wild), Juventus’ run of 9 straight Serie A titles has finally ended. About time, guys, and that’s a great example of why the Prem is so great. One or two teams cant consistently dominate like they do in other major leagues.

⛏️ On to the UCL, City are good. No surprise. Just bet a lot of money on them to win this thing now.

⛏️ Chelsea handled Real like I expected. Problem is, that means I have to watch City and Chelsea battle for a Champions League title, which is as close to a soccer nightmare as I can think of (for me at least, screw the casual fan). Happy to be right, but also sad to be right.

⛏️ I cannot wait for two teams who just mutinied to go out and fight for this trophy though. The UEFA representative handing out the trophy is going to have to restrain himself from beating the winning captain over the head with it

⛏️ And to recap, I won. Everything. Every damn pick last week. Maybe my mopey attitude focused my brain or something? Who knows, but that’s good money for anyone who followed

⛏️ Not a ton to say about the Europa, except to enjoy that Arsenal lifelessly sputtered out without even putting up much of a fight. Good luck to Villareal in that final, I’m guessing United will be a little better...

⛏️ Oh, and the fact the Unai Emery knocked them out is absolutely hilarious. I appreciate you, Arsenal. Never change.

⛏️ On to other sports, lets start with the NFL. I loathe the lead up to the draft and all the silly speculation, but the actual event (or at least the first round) is fun

⛏️ I wont dive into every pick, but I want to give a shout out to the Bears for trading a massive haul again for a QB, since they clearly didn’t learn from the Mitch debacle. I may be lower on Fields than most, but I think we would all enjoy it if this blew up in their face.

⛏️ Oh, and the Pats got the guy they wanted without moving an inch. How the 31 other NFL teams allowed that to happen is a mystery to me.

⛏️ Otherwise, nothing hugely important stuck out. The Jets drafting the kid from BYU seems destined to be a mistake, but that’s expected from the Jets.

⛏️ Oh, and congrats to Kyle Pitts for going 4^th as a TE. He actually deserves it for how much of a freak he is, but the Falcons probably need to start thinking about playing defense at some point.

⛏️ On to basketball, the big news has been teams continuing to complain about the play in structure as soon as they get close to, you know, having to play in it.

⛏️ This week, it was LeBron hilariously claiming it was an awful plan despite arguing for this very format in the fall. That man is probably the best basketball player ever, but his inability to gauge public opinion (and reality) might be even more impressive.

⛏️ Russell Westbrook is very good at basketball. But saying he’s terrible for the team he plays on is also an undeniable fact, not some affront to his ability. He WILL put up massive numbers, and his team WILL also be mediocre at best. They are both true statements.

⛏️ Tatis. Holy shit. That boy can play ball huh? Too bad he’s on the Padres...

⛏️ How the hell is the MLB still getting away with these 7-inning double headers? Its absolutely wild. Imagine if the NBA just cut a quarter off of games when both teams were on the second leg of a back to back? People would lose their minds. But the MLB is still trotting out partial baseball games like its nothing.

⛏️ After seeing that Means only threw a no hitter because of a passed ball on his catcher’s mistake, it seemed pretty unfair. Then I remembered Armando Galarraga, and everything didn’t feel so bad.

⛏️ Golf seems to be flirting with a world “Super Tour” of its own. Guys, let me give you a little hint about how this whole thing ends.... not well. Read the room.

⛏️ Also, when’s the next major? Sorry if you care, but watching the Valspar doesn’t do a whole lot for me. Someone come find me when they get to Kiawah.

Now enough blabbing, lets get some bets in! ⤵️

 

⚽ Premier League Picks

Leeds vs. Tottenham

And just like that, I fall right back into the Spurs trap. Aside from an absolutely embarrassing Carabao Cup final performance where we looked like a third division team trying to hold on for dear life and dignity, Spurs have played worlds better since they fired Mourinho. Shockingly, trying to play a style that doesn’t fit the players and is completely obvious to your opponents didn’t work out. Sure, a win over Sheffield doesn’t say a whole lot, but it was the style of attack and freedom of movement that showed what this team can be on its best day. And, conveniently, that’s a great way to be playing when facing Leeds. In fairness to them, Leeds haven’t been quite as open and defensively frail over the last month or two, which probably has a hell of a lot to do with the fact that they just ran out of steam. Sprinting a marathon is surprisingly not a good tactic. But they still play fairly open and aggressive soccer, and are impressively clinical in front of net for a team that’s in the bottom half of the table. While they may be able to sneak a goal by this Spurs back line, though, they are going to have a nightmare trying to contain Kane, Son, and the resurgent Gareth Bale. Leeds have given up 52 goals in 34 games on the season, and they’re now facing one of the top offenses in the country who have everything to play for. I know I have my biases, but I also know what my eyes see from this team right now and if they play the type of game they’re capable of they should be able to handle a Leeds side who are thinking about their summer vacations more than this match (if that kind of thing is even allowed any more?). Spurs win this one, and at -105 the payout is pretty good for the disparity in quality.

💰 Pick: Spurs ML (-105)

Man City vs. Chelsea

Well, would’ja look at that. On the week when both of these teams set a date for Istanbul and a Champions League Trophy matchup, they both get to play a preview in the Premier League. And for all the importance and fanfare the final will get, this one probably sets up to be the opposite. Not only do we have, arguably, the two best defensive teams in the country, but we also have two teams who will trying to not give away any strategic information. So how do we make heads or tails in this one? Well, for me, the key is understanding the tactics of this game. Man City are the better team overall. Its pretty simple and definitely true. But, while they are better on their best day, I absolutely don’t expect to see them at that level in this matchup. Not only have City basically locked up the title, they’re going to want to rest bodies after a midweek match, which means you probably get a lot of squad rotation and closer to the B-level City team. Still very good, but not quite as good as their best 11. Chelsea would also like to start resting players and getting them fully fit for the final, but, unfortunately, they’re barely hanging on to the Top 4 right now and just cant afford to drop points. Chelsea sit only 3 points ahead of West Ham, and walking away with 0 from this match could be a killer for them. Add in the lack of motivation from City, and their expected squad rotation, and I see this game leaning a bit more towards a draw or even a Chelsea win than you would normally expect. So at -104 for Chelsea +0.5, I think the value is great here. City could really care less about winning this game, and their priorities will be to keep players healthy and to not give Chelsea a chance to prepare for the Final by giving away tactics. Basically, I expect City to bunker up and try to wind down the clock for 90 minutes, while Chelsea will be pushing more for a winner to try to pick up a vital 3 points in their league campaign. A draw feels fairly likely here, and a Chelsea win wouldn’t shock me at all. So even money on either of those outcomes feels like great value. Ride this one to the bank.

💰 Pick: Chelsea +.5 (-104)

Liverpool vs. Southampton

Some days, I wonder if the book makers even look at the form teams are in, or just make assumptions based on the name of the clubs and where they are in the table. Because, if I’m being fucking honest (and I am, as always. not sure why I wouldn’t be), this line doesn’t make a lick of sense. Liverpool are absolutely a better team that Southampton, and have much more to play for, but -350 on them in this game is giving WAY too much credit to a Liverpool side who have been inconsistent all year.  Granted, Southampton haven’t been consistent at anything either (except for being less than impressive over the last 4 months), but on their better days they still have the quality to compete with anyone not named Manchester ___ . That said, we also have to be careful with how we use the value we’re getting. While Southampton ML +900 is probably good for the money too, technically speaking, I’m more worried about winning than I am about squeezing every drop of blood I can out of this rock. So I’m going to go with the spread here too, which is even money for the Saints +1.5. While Liverpool are the better side, they’re defensively frail and haven’t been able to pull away in games where they should be winning by multiple goals. They’ve drawn Leeds and Newcastle in their last two matches, and only managed single-goal victories over Villa and Wolves in April. While Liverpool are the better team, and will be pushing for a win hard in order to stay on pace for European football, I can’t ignore the lack of quality I’ve seen from them over the course of the season. If they come out and play like a top level club, they certainly could blow the doors off of Southampton. But that’s a tall ask from this team based on the level of play they’ve brought over the last 9 months, and I wouldn’t recommend getting drawn in by the name on the badge here. At 1:1 payout with the safety of a one-goal loss, I like this bet a lot.

💰 Pick: Southampton +1.5 (EVEN)

West Ham vs. Everton

We all picked up a solid win last week when I pointed out, quite astutely, that Everton-Villa set up to be a high scoring match. You’re welcome. Now we get Everton-West Ham, which, on paper, sets up for as many (if not more) goals. And yet, the books still have the over at -110. That, ladies and gentlemen, is value. To be fair, this game is a little more tricky than last week’s Everton fixture because both of these teams are squarely in the fight for European spots, and this game will be crucial for both of them. West Ham sit 5^th with an outside chance at Champions League matches while Everton are in 8^th (with a game in hand) looking to get up to 6 or 7 for Europa. In games where both teams have so much to play for, there’s always a risk that things stall and you get a low scoring fist fight. But this just doesn’t feel like that type of matchup. West Ham play aggressive soccer, and have given up more goals than any team in the Top 10. How do they manage to stay in the Top 10? By scoring like they’re Costco Members (aka, in bulk). The Hammers will push from minute 1 to minute 90, which will give them chances to score while also opening up defensive cracks for Everton to exploit. The Toffees are the real issue here, because their offensive record isn’t all that spectacular and neither is their form. But since they’re currently on the outside looking in for those European spots, I expect them to get more aggressive than they normally would and push for 3 points. That should create a lot of opportunities for goals, and I think 3 is a comfortable number here. Want more hard stats? West Ham matches have hit the over in 5 of their last 6 games. This team isn’t changing its style, and that should dictate the game. Bet on a shootout here.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

Arsenal vs. West Brom

This game is scary only because nobody really knows if West Brom will care enough to show up. The Baggies technically haven’t been relegated yet, but it would take miracles from Jewish, Christian and Mormon Jesus to get them over the line here. Needless to say, I don’t expect them to get that sorted out. As long as they have something to play for (regardless of how improbable), though, they’re still a threat to come out and make an opponent uncomfortable for 90 minutes. I like Arsenal here, in all honesty, but at -220 the money just isn’t right. The over, on the other hand, absolutely is. West Brom have the worst defensive record in the league, and give up about 2 goals per game. Add in that Arsenal are still (maybe?) fighting for European spots, and they could come out strong enough to take this over on their own. The midweek embarrassment might be a bit motivating as well, especially with Arteta coaching for his job. West Brom have some offensive quality of their own (at least for a club getting relegated), and will press a Gunners’ side that has lapsed a bit in defensive form over the last couple of months. Really, this game all comes down to whether these teams have enough in them to go for it, or if they play a lifeless 90 minutes where they just wait for the clock to run. I think both will have the motivation and quality to fight for a win, and I expect we get 3 or 4 in this one. At -128 its not my favorite bet on the weekend, but its right for the money.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-128)

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