Prospector Sam's Nuggets – English Premier League and FA Cup Picks

Ladies and Gentlemen, today is a very special day. Quite frankly, it should be a national holiday, but the powers that be are too blind to see it. Because this day of our lord, May 14, is the holiest of sports gambling days.

Think Easter, Ramadan, and “Unveiling Day” all wrapped in one (I researched and found the holiest day in the satanic temple, never knock me for my lack of inclusivity). It was 3 years ago exactly that the Supreme Court of the United States released their ruling in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association which paved the way for sports gambling legalization across the United States. Since then, nearly half of the states in the country have approved sports gambling in some form, giving us access to our god given right to embrace our inner degeneracy. As the Declaration of Independence says, this country was founded on the principles of “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” Sports gambling clearly personifies those principles (and was surely on our Founding Father’s mind in 1776), making it about as American as apple pie or the Type 2 diabetes that accompanies those delicious pastries.

And what should we call this high holiday? Well, Chris Christie Day of course. Because the corpulent former governor of New Jersey was the force that got the ball rolling on this legal challenge that ultimately ended in the shackles of overbearing federal government being lifted from our hands. And so, while many of you may know Sir Christie for his spherical nature or his extremely embarrassing attempt to become president, its time to rewrite that narrative and to recognize May 14^th as a day of honor and appreciation for one of the true great men in American history. Sure, Chris isn’t without faults. But who is? Our founding fathers owned slaves, Susan B. Anthony was racist as hell, Martin Luther King Jr. and JFK were serial adulterers, and Jeff Bezos can’t even keep a full head of hair. So let’s cut Christie a break for looking like Violet Beauregarde without the blue skin. At least he didn’t do some of the shit that those other American heroes did, AND he gave us the never ending gift of sports gambling. That’s a man to truly be proud of.

With that, back to the nuggets! ⤵️

⛏️ Well, not the best gambling week for me. 2-3 isnt all that bad, but it’s the way I lost that killed me. The two posts in Everton-West Ham hurt, and that 90th minute goal by Liverpool was soul crushing.

⛏️ Oh, and Tottenham were Tottenham. What a fucking gutless effort. I hate everything.

⛏️ The Champions League spots are basically wrapped up as of the weekend, with Chelsea and Leicester both pretty much out of the woods. That just leaves the losers/best of the rest fighting for the glory of Europa.

⛏️ And relegation is settled. Cant say I’m too sad to see any of those clubs go, though I do have a bit of a soft spot for Fulham. They just seem so pure and friendly with their little Cottage.

⛏️ Oh, and City won the title. Excuse me while I go puke/look for oil to turn Spurs into a title contender.

⛏️ Though I will admit it was funny to see United lose to give them the title. Ole basically trotted out a B squad after bitching about how “unfair” the fixture list was. Uhhhh.... maybe next time don’t let fans break into your stadium?

⛏️ But, sadly, that pretty much puts a cap on this season. There’s very left to play for any more, so it should be a relatively tame final few weeks. Might be time to start poking around La Liga for some entertainment

⛏️ Speaking of boring leagues, Bayern won the title. Again. Thanks for trying, everyone.

⛏️ Oh, and UEFA moved the Champions League Final out of Turkey to Portugal. I wont get into geopolitics here, but putting major events in Turkey feels like playing with fire right now (and maybe always?). I’d be pissed if I had travel plans arranged, but I can understand why they made the decision.

⛏️ Onto other sports, leave it to the NFL to make a whole fucking show out of releasing the schedule. But I don’t knock them for it. They know just how badly they have us by the balls, and we cant help ourselves from caring.

⛏️ In sad news, Colt Brennan died. If you don’t remember how fun it was watching that Hawaii team play, then I just feel bad for you.

⛏️ I don’t understand this Tim Tebow situation at all. Not only is it absurd to bring him back in a new position, but you’re taking a roster spot from somebody who could, you know, actually be good. Add in Urban Meyer drafting a RB in the first round to take snaps away from the stud he already has, and things are already looking iffy in Jacksonville

⛏️ Which, to be fair, is normal. Carry on.

⛏️ Another No Hitter in baseball. Guys, lets chill out a little. Its not as fun if it happens once a week

⛏️ I ended up down the Angel Hernandez rabbit hole again this week after a couple of terrible calls in the Royals series. If you ever want to make a case against unions, there is your crown jewel.

⛏️ The Pelicans blamed NBA refs for a contact injury that’s taking him off the court, because they haven’t adequately protected him..... Jesus Christ guys. I’m not looking for the old, macho NBA. But following LeBron’s example isn’t the answer either.

⛏️ I normally could give a fuck less about horse racing, but this Bob Baffert story is incredible. That man has come up with so many crazy/hilarious excuses that he may now be my idol. If you actually care about the sport, you might be less sympathetic though. I’m about 120% sure he cheated.

⛏️ Nothing big in golf, but the PGA at Kiawah is next week. I may have an article up my sleeve for all of you... (well, its on my computer, but you get the idea)

Now on to the real star of the show, picks! ⤵️

 

FA Cup Picks

Chelsea vs. Leicester

I’m either going to be an absolute sucker or a genius here. Because, based on this line, you would think Chelsea was playing Brighton in the final, not a Leicester team that’s ahead of them in the table. And sure, I get it. Chelsea post-Lampard is a much better team and they’re in the Champions League Final and yada yada yada. But this is still a single game for the FA Cup between two clubs in the Top-4 of the Premier League. And you’re giving me Leicester +290 to win in regulation? That’s just fucking crazy. Chelsea are probably a bit better right now, and their defense is crippling to even the best offenses in the world. But finals are always a coin toss and teams always play a bit tighter and less composed when everything is on the line. We’ve seen teams like Wigan and Arsenal win this game in the last decade, for fucks sake. Basically, I see Leicester having a decent chance of winning this game in regulation (think, ~40%), which makes these odds too good to pass up. Normally, I’d play it a bit safer and just take Leicester to lift the trophy, but at +290 that value is so high that I’m taking a risk and picking them to win in regulation. If I’m being honest, I think Leicester probably don’t win if this game gets to added time or PKs, so taking them in the first 90 is more valuable anyway. Its not one to bet huge on, but at a 3:1 payout its worth tossing some money down for sure.

💰 Pick: Leicester ML (+290)

⚽ Premier League Picks

Southampton vs. Fulham

Ok, so I touched on the fact that we’ve hit a stage in the Premier League season where almost nothing matters any more. That’s bad news for casual viewing or knowing what to expect from the teams who are playing, but it can offer some opportunities to make interesting bets. Also, betting might just be a necessity, because there is absolutely no other reason to watch Fulham play Southampton right now. You’re welcome for giving you an excuse to care. Well, kind of. Because my bet here is entirely contingent on two things; neither of these teams have much to play for, and neither have much quality in front of net. So while I’m giving a bet I like here, “No” on Both Teams to Score (Even), it still doesn’t do much in the way of making the game fun to watch. But I think the play is solid for the money. Fulham have scored a whopping 25 goals this year, and Southampton have slumped from near the top of the table in November all the way down to near the bottom by the spring. With Fulham just recently losing the good fight for survival, the wind will likely have been taken from their sails (even though they had very little to begin with), and I expect this game to limp along for 90 minutes with pretty much nothing happening. Sure, someone will probably score a goal and break the deadlock, but I really couldn’t tell you which team it would be. So I’m going with this option because I expect at least one of these teams (if not both) will provide nothing and happily walk to the locker room one game closer to a 3-month break. At even money, it’s a solid payout for the two sides on the field.

 💰  Pick: Both teams to score - no (EVEN)

 

Brighton vs. West Ham

Poor West Ham. Nobody ever seems to believe in them. The Hammers sit in fifth place, a huge feat for them, and still have a slight chance of Champions League soccer after Chelsea choked against Arsenal in the midweek. Hell, even their loss to Everton last weekend probably deserved a better result for them. And yet, here they are, with positive odds against Brighton. More specifically, a Brighton team who has lost to Wolves and Sheffield in two of their last three matches, and sit 17th in the League table. To Brighton’s credit, they’re probably better than that position suggests seeing as they have only a -5 GD, but getting points is hard when you can’t score goals and the Seagulls average just 1 a game. Their best hope here is to clamp down on West Ham and suffocate the life out of them for most of the match, but its hard to see them caring enough at this point to do it. Just look at those recent bad losses as an example of the fact that reality has set in for them on their season being meaningless. So I really can’t see them putting in the defensive performance necessary to hold down a West Ham side who have made a habit of putting in multiple goals on bottom half clubs. The Hammers sit 12 places ahead in the table, have infinitely more to play for, and are still getting a positive payout to win. I love this bet, and I think the value is fantastic for what this match sets up to be. I’ll be taking a big swing at this one.

💰 Pick: West Ham ML (+145)

 

Tottenham vs. Wolves Spurs defense is fucking abysmal. Their offense is pretty good. That’s really all I’ve got to say. Wolves score a goal a game on average, which doesn’t give you a lot of confidence, but the Londoners have given up 9 goals in their last 5 and don’t look capable of stopping anyone right now (aside from Sheffield, they still suck). On the flip side, Spurs are still fighting for Europa League soccer and will push for goals to make that “dream” a reality (its all we can dream for these days). Wolves are solid defensively for a team in 12th place, but that isn’t saying a whole lot when you realize they’ve still given up 47 goals in 35 games. Basically, the logic here is that Spurs games have gone over 2.5 at an insanely high clip over the last few months (8 of their last 9 Premier League matches), so getting -110 against anyone is pretty decent value. The cover here could come from literally anywhere; neither 3-0 Spurs or 3-0 Wolves would surprise me. But at standard odds, it feels like great money.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

 

Wimpy ML Parlay: Well, its not quite the +360 parlay I hit a couple of weeks ago, but I have a bet here that I love. We have the two Liverpool teams playing the two worst teams in the league. Both Everton and Liverpool are chasing Europa spots, while the two bottom dwellers have been relegated and have nothing left to fight for. That makes me feel fantastic about both of them winning this game, in addition to the fact that both are clearly better than their opponents. So why waste your time betting Liverpool ML -550 and Everton ML -250? Just wrap those two up with a nice little Merseyside bow and take both to win together. If you parlay these two games, the odds jump to a respectable -150, which is a very solid payout for two games that very likely will be wins for the favorites. It isn’t all that flashy or creative, but I think it’s a great spot to make some money. Also, betting against West Brom or Sheffield is usually a good call, so just focus on that part if you have any doubts.

💰 Pick: Liverpool ML (-550) and Everton ML (-250)

💰 Parlay = -150

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