Prospector Sam – Elite 8 Picks: Betting picks, odds and promotions

Well, despite my pain, I can’t just give up on all of you.

Syracuse losing hurt, really fucking bad. One thing I do here, completely intentionally, is make everyone aware of what my allegiances are and what I care about. I’ve never understood the idea of sports analysts pretending to be unbiased, and when guys like SVP show that they’re actually a fan like the rest of us it makes everything more fun. I think (hope) its more relatable and interesting for you to know what I’m rooting for, and it also lets you know that I do have biases, which you can adjust for accordingly. Watching my Orange completely flop on Saturday night was two hours of torture, that led to lots of alcohol consumption and then a fun day of crippling hangover. I guess that’s the nature of being a fan: it can be a blast, but it can also suck. Shout out to one Will McBee, a dedicated fan of the show (I appreciate you), whose Cougars are on to the Elite 8. I’m pretty sure I committed to giving him a real cougar if they won (have to check with my lawyer on the legality of that commitment), so don’t be surprised if you find a cage in your front yard soon. You wanted the live, 200-pound death cat, now you have to live with it. On to the picks! 

🏀 Elite 8 

Oregon State vs. Houston

I give up. I’ve been fading Oregon State all tournament expecting them to fall back down to earth where they belong but it just isn’t happening. They can beat you in a number of ways, and they showed it again against Loyola. This time, it was suffocating defense and stellar play from Ethan Thompson. More importantly, though, the matchup feels perfect for them based on what I saw from Houston. The Beavers play a 2-3 zone, which is exactly what the Cougars saw in the Sweet 16 against Cuse, and they didn’t look all that great on the offensive end. They managed just 62 points, and were it not for a stellar defensive effort coupled with a freezing cold shooting night from the Orange, and Houston may have been in trouble. They get to test that premise Monday, and I don’t like what I saw enough to give up 7.5 points on Houston. The Cougars are going to be tough to score on, but Thompson presents an entirely different type of problem than Buddy Boeheim, and his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands is going to be much harder to shut down. Add in the fact that the Beavers have better big men, and I think they just present too many issues for Houston to clamp down like they did by badgering 3-point shooters last time out. I don’t know that Oregon State necessarily wins this game, since they weren’t exactly spectacular against Loyola either, but I think it will be close. If we were ignoring the regular season and simply looking at the last 3 games, Oregon clearly looks like the better team and recent form matters come this time of year. Give me the points.

💰 Pick: Oregon State +7.5

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Arkansas vs. Baylor

I doubt there was a person in the world not from Arkansas who was rooting for the Razorbacks to make that comeback. Credit to them for grinding out a win, but it was very sad to see the true Cinderella go down in that type of heartbreak. That said, its probably a good thing it happened, because ORU would have been absolutely fucked trying to handle a Baylor team who looked lethal in the second half against Villanova, casually outscoring the Wildcats by 18. Baylor got a little too reliant on the three ball early in that match and couldn’t hit water from a boat, but they figured it out and just 2-pointed Nova to death with easy baskets on some incredible passing. But Villanova was clearly undermanned without Gillespie, and its hard to feel too good about Baylor beating a team who looked like they were on the ropes at half time. Arkansas may not be all that great, but they’re very athletic and can score in bunches if they remember to play smart basketball and limit bad turnovers. As both Colgate and ORU learned, they just aren’t a team you’re going to beat by getting into a track meet. Baylor isn’t going to play quite as fast as the Razorbacks, but this game will play at a decent pace which will benefit Arkansas, who wants to beat you in transition more than they want to get into a half court battle. Another game where, quite simply, I don’t know that I like the dog to win, but its just too many points to be giving up on the favorite. I see Baylor winning by about 2-5, so I’m taking the points again. 

💰 Pick: Arkansas +7

USC vs. Gonzaga

Well, it's finally time to see what Gonzaga is made of. The Zags have yet to play a real team in this tournament, with the one halfway close challenger being an Oklahoma team without one of its best players that was tanking for the last month of the year. Now, Gonzaga is facing a USC team who has been on an absolute tear, decimating Kansas and Oregon in the last two rounds, and who has actual NBA talent in Evan Mobley. I’ve been waiting patiently for a time to fade Gonzaga and this is it. The biggest benefit that Gonzaga has had all tournament is that they haven’t really faced anyone who can slow them down offensively. There isn’t a team in the country who can keep up with them in a shooting battle, and the only way to take them down is to slow the constant flow of points from Suggs, Kispert and Timme. USC is athletic as hell and plays solid defense, which is how they’ve managed to dismantle solid teams like Oregon and Kansas. Their biggest issue will be on the offensive end, where role players will need to help Mobley by making shots and over performing a bit. Gonzaga clearly has enough talent to play defense, but we really don’t know how good this defense is because they haven’t really had to care about showing up on that end of the floor since December. That scares me though, because when a close game does come, they’re actually going to be in a bit of unfamiliar territory. They are still the most talented team in the country and should be able to beat anyone on their best night, but somebody in this Tournament is going to give them a shot and Gonzaga may be the least prepared team in the country for dealing with a tight game down the stretch. USC may not be quite good enough to give them that game, but they are talented enough to hang with Gonzaga, and I’ll take the 9 points here. I expect the Zags win by around 6-7 with a late pull away effort. 

💰 Pick: USC +9

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UCLA vs. Michigan

It’s hard to feel all that good about this UCLA team after watching their Sweet 16 win. I’m happy for Mick Cronin, who’s one of the best in the business and deserves to succeed, but they needed overtime against an Alabama team who played one of the worst games of basketball I’ve seen at this stage in the Tournament in a while. The Tide shot under 30% from 3 and under 50% from the free throw line, which is the kind of stat line you expect from the loser in a 30-point blowout loss, not a hard fought OT game. But a win is a win, and I expect UCLA will also be better than they were in that game, especially with Juzang and Jaquez playing solid ball right now. More important for me here is that Michigan is a little overvalued at the moment. This team is beatable, and they got a gift in the Sweet 16 by facing the ugly side of FSU, who turned the ball over in impressively bad ways and never got a foothold in the game. Both of these teams have won on the defensive end in this tournament, and I expect you see a bit of a tight game on the lower scoring end as both play hard half court defense and refuse to give up easy baskets. In a game like that, its extremely hard to pull away by a significant margin, and I think UCLA will hang in this one for a while, if not until the last possession. At 7.5 points, it just feels like too much to give up at this point. I guess this is the round of the underdogs for me, but I will gladly take 7.5 points in this matchup.

💰 Pick: UCLA +7.5

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