Prospector Sam - Who to Trust in the World of Sports Gambling

The Prospector is here to break down the world of sports gambling in 2021, with a focus on who to trust and not trust when it comes to picks!

Alright, time to get into a bit of a tricky subject here. If you’re looking for the humor-based writing I normally do, I’ll warn you right off the bat that this piece isn’t that. I’m definitely not a Capital J Journalist, nor am I really even what you would call a “writer” (I was a math and economics major for a reason), but every once in a while I try to dive into subjects that are important for gamblers.

After all, I do work for a website trying to build itself in the growing world of American sports gambling. And I’m actually going to go a step further here and say that Dimers did not ask me to write this for them (it’ll make more sense in a second), so it’s entirely my own idea to get into this topic.

Today, I’m going to talk about who I think you should trust when it comes to following picks. See why that comment above matters? It’s an issue I’ve wanted to sink my teeth into for a while, but I’ve shied away from it because I have so many obvious biases that anyone reading this should absolutely be skeptical as hell. Not only do I spend a lot of my time writing about picks that I like, in a way that I think is effective (though, as I’ve openly stated, my work is more about enjoyable writing and fun commentary on sports than the actual picks), but part of Dimers business is based around using models to help bettors gain a statistical edge. So, yeah, objective isn’t exactly a word you can use here, even if I’m going to try my best to look at this with clear eyes.

But, while this topic may be inherently difficult for me to write about for the reasons above, it's too important not to address. Sports gambling is growing at an insanely fast rate across the country as states continue to legalize it and as the idea of sports gambling continues to be normalized in general. With those changes, more people will be looking for ways to improve their betting, either as new gamblers or as seasoned ones looking for additional information or sources of value. With no shortage of options for help, from media experts to professional handicappers to models, it's important to know where to get the best information and who to trust.

Now, I’m also not going to tell you exactly how to pick that information, or try to tell you what the “best” things to follow are. It's still gambling, so there is no real right way to do it. Everyone will find what works for them, which won’t be the same for you as it is for me. But I will give you some indicators and other things I think are significant for who to trust, and you can do with them what you will. Let’s get to it ⤵️

Why Are They Posting Picks?

This may not have all that much relevance to whether or not you should consider something a valid source of gambling expertise, but it does matter. Every single handicapping service has a reason for doing what they do, even if that reason is “I like gambling and I want to share that with the world.” And, quite honestly, no reason is illegitimate. If you think anyone is going to do tons of gambling research for you and help you win money for free with no personal motive, you should probably rethink that belief. Hell, even I have my own motives for doing this that go beyond just writing for fun. What are they? Well, I haven’t exactly figured it out. I have some vague notion of eventually being able to work in sports and writing as a real job instead of a hobby, and I figure this is a good way to get my foot in the door, but I have no fucking clue whether or not that will ever actually happen (I’m nothing if not honest with all of you). Basically, just don’t look at self motivation as a bad thing, but know that every person trying to get you to follow them has a reason.

Why does that matter? Well, you (the reader/gambler) are the product here. Whether it's someone trying to sell you picks or to get you to click on their pages, everyone is fighting for you (don’t you feel special?). And you should recognize what it is that each expert wants from you. The good news is, a lot of the time that answer is “nothing.” They want your support, which will bring the money from elsewhere, and you can just reap the benefits of that. But just know that everyone is trying to sell you on something.

Do You Have to Pay for Information/Picks?

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that paying for picks (or that people who want you to pay them for picks) is somehow morally and inherently bad. In fact, if you could find someone who guarantees winning at a high enough rate of return that you can expect to make money off of their selections, it would almost certainly be an economically good decision to do it.

That said, be weary. Gambling is hard, and sportsbooks make a killing because people lose more than they win. When you start gambling on sports, you should know that making a consistent profit is far from a guarantee, and if you add in extra costs like paying for a professional handicapper, that’s more money out of your pocket. On a deeper level, I’m also a pretty big advocate of the fact that I shouldn’t try to sell you something that might fail, especially if that thing would actually lose you more money. Imagine if I sold you a lawn mower, but instead of cutting your grass it ripped all of it out and you had to reseed that shit? You probably wouldn’t be buying that lawn mower from me, and you would probably be calling for my fucking head along with your money back.

I already feel bad enough as it is when I get my picks wrong on my weekly write ups, and the only things I’ve taken from my readers is ten minutes of their time. The idea of selling information that might actually lose people money causes knots in my stomach. That all might sound like I’m saying people charging for picks is wrong, and, in fairness, it sort of is. But if you can find a consistent winner who provides long term profit for you, then by all means take advantage. I’ll just say that there are way too many people out there claiming to do just that, and if they were winning the way they say that they are, then those people wouldn’t be wasting their time selling picks.

Do They Post Picks in a Way You Can Trust?

This should probably be the most important item on your list. You absolutely need to be able to verify that people made picks the way that they say they did before the actual event happened. Notice I didn’t say “they need to post picks before they happen.” That, obviously, would be a problem for certain types of gambling services. But, even for those people, there are ways to prove that bets were actually made. Using an online tracking system, posting betting slips, and many other options are ways of proving that you actually committed to the picks that you say you have.

Now, that process is a lot easier if everything is publicly available. Want to know what I bet? Just go look at the article or twitter time stamp, and you can see exactly what I said and when I said it. But I’m not out here trying to prove to you that I’m some gambling god, so maybe I just have less at stake. All in all, though, I will highly recommend not following an expert who has sketchy information or only shows winning picks. The most basic thing that a gambling service should be able to provide is what they gamble on, and if you can’t get a clear picture on that then it’s not a good sign.

Do They Provide Analysis or Commentary?

This may or may not be important to you. It's probably the one factor that will differ heavily based on the bettor, and there’s nothing wrong with saying “leave out all of the fluff, just tell me what the pick is.” Personally, I find that to be a lot less fun and informative. I always write out my thought process and provide detailed reasoning, but I’m also not just “selling” my picks. And the range of information provided can vary. Sometimes, all you need is a sentence or two to explain exactly why a bet has value. In fact, you almost certainly don’t need what I provide because its filled with self-indulgent jokes and irrelevant commentary.

That said, providing some sort of analysis can be important. Not only does it help explain the reason to trust a pick beforehand, but it’s also a measure of value when you go back and see how accurate the prediction was. That fact, actually, is a reason that a lot of handicappers don’t provide all that much analysis. Predicting outcomes ahead of time, especially with analysis that turns out to be spot on, is a great way to gain trust from bettors. But the opposite can be extremely problematic. I can’t count the number of times I’ve looked back on losing picks and put my head in my hands reading just how dumb I sounded while explaining myself. But it stays up and you can see it because that’s all part of the process, and I think that being able to know where I went wrong is important information for anyone thinking about following along with my bets.

So what’s my verdict here? Honestly, I don’t think it really matters. My brand of making bets is different than Dimers’ brand who is different than the next guy and so on. You may like reading my work, or you may hate it and think it's absurd. You may like Dimers’ concise explanations and looking at their model, or it may not be your cup of tea. Really, this factor is just about what you like and what fits with your brain best. There’s more than one way to skin a cat.

Are They Openly Providing All Information After the Fact?

This kind of goes hand in hand with some of the things I’ve already said, and in particular with being able to verify picks, but it’s significant enough to talk about on its own. While I may not have a problem leaving up my horrendously bad misses, losing bets have a funny habit of disappearing or being swept under the rug by many gambling services. Now, I’m not saying that betters should be out there openly highlighting times when they lost, because that would just be silly. Even I make a point of tweeting out my winners while conveniently not reposting the losers, because I want people to follow and read my work.

Trying to show them I’m wrong sometimes doesn’t help that cause. But there’s a difference between that, and actively hiding that picks missed. If you start to notice that tweets have gone missing or that something you think was said can’t be found anymore, be weary. This world is all about convincing people that you have the best information, and people will try to cheat and cut corners to make themselves look more impressive than they are. I recommend checking to make sure that losing picks are still easily findable after the fact, at the very least.

Do They Win/Does Their Win Rate Make Sense?

Part one of this is obvious, and I don’t need to tell you that you shouldn’t be following someone who doesn’t win you money. I won’t insult you by going any further into it. But you also should be damn skeptical if you see a winning rate or number that’s too good to be true. If that handicapper has a 75% winning percentage, it means one of 3 things; (1) They consistently bet on -400 picks and probably don’t actually make a strong payout, (2) They’re the best gambler of all time and they probably make millions on their gambling or (3) They’re lying. The best gamblers hit at a rate somewhere around 56-58% on standard bets. It's not enough to get you rich quick, but it is enough to make a profit over the long term. So look and check what the win percentage is, and ask yourself if it fits with that logic. That doesn’t mean that a handicapper can’t have a crazy hot couple of weeks and hit way above that percentage. They can. But they will also have bad weeks where they hit below 50% because it's still gambling. The key is, long term and consistent success at a reasonable number.

And, following that sentiment, look for experts who can actually provide you with that information. It’s something I don’t do, but I’m here trying to sell my overall work, not my gambling prowess. Any handicapper worth their salt will be able to provide you with a “resume” of sorts to verify that they deserve your time with their past winnings. Its one of the things I’ve found to be most important about Dimers, because they consistently and openly recap everything they do, but most other serious gamblers will be able to do it too. As for me, well, I never claimed to be worth much of anything anyway. I’m just here to have fun.

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