Prospector Sam's Week 17 NFL Best Bets and Props

Prospector Sam is back on deck in 2022 to provide the Dimers community with free picks for the Week 17 NFL slate.

My sincerest apologies for not putting out an article last week folks. Well, sort of. While I normally would feel bad about skipping a week and the lack of consistency, I was travelling to see my family back in the motherland and I wanted to get some quality time with them. I’m more sorry because I still put out a bunch of picks on Twitter and I ran up a pretty damn good card that ended 7-3 and included a +200 winner on Josh Allen rushing yards. Alas, I’m not perfect, and this is just another incentive for any of you not on the tweeter to get out there and follow me so you never miss a pick or any bizarre thought I deem worthy of getting on the internet. But rather than stew in negativity, let’s get back to what I know best; winners, accompanied by long winded tangents and somewhat funny jokes.

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM where you can throw down $10 and win $200 if there's just a single touchdown in the game you bet on.

Free NFL Picks For Week 17, 2021

Raiders vs. Colts: Sun January 2, 1 PM EST

This Colts team is clearly very good. Their defense has stepped up when needed and Jonathan Taylor is going to be a star for years to come in the NFL. Buuuuutttt, how in gods’ name can you lay down 7 points in this game when Indy is without its starting QB and sporting an offensive line that’s likely been filled by driving around to find the largest men in the city. The Raiders have their fair share of issues and I’ve been pretty low on them throughout the season, but they sit at 8-7 with legitimate playoff hopes, and they’re learning to win in creative ways. Put them in front of the Chiefs and they melt like Frosty in a heat wave, but Las Vegas has been competitive in a lot of tough games and even beat some solid opposition like the Dallas Cowboys. I’m not sure the Raiders are quite good enough to win here, but with the protection of the 7 point loss and all that extra equity in an important game for both of these teams that could turn into a dogfight, and I like the Raiders with the points.

⛏️  PICK: Raiders +7

MORE: Raiders vs. Colts simulator

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Jaguars vs. Patriots: Sun January 2, 1 PM EST

This is a clear “get right” game for New England and it’s almost certain they beat up on a hopeless Jacksonville team that just lost James Robinson to the IR. If you wanted to give up the points I wouldn’t blame you, but 16 feels like a big hill to climb and I’m walking away because I like the under more. Why the under? This game sets up to be lifeless and done by about halftime, and I think both teams will do as much as they can to wind out the clock in the third and fourth quarter once the Pats get a comfortable lead. Neither of these units plays particularly fast to begin with, and the Jaguars never project to score many points, with 10 or less feeling like a fairly comfortable expectation against a solid New England defense. On the other side, the Pats rely heavily on the run game and play methodically with a rookie QB at the helm, which will limit scoring and allow them to wind out the game once they have points on the board. It’s probably not a matchup I would advocate for watching unless you have some serious money riding on fantasy players in this one, and even then I don’t see a lot of enjoyment coming from that angle, but the money is right here. Look for this one to end below the 40 point mark.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 41.5

MORE: Jaguars vs. Patriots simulator

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Chiefs vs. Bengals: Sunday January 2, 1 PM EST

Not to be a big debbie downer here, but this game also has “under” written all over it. Yeah, part of me hopes I’m wrong because these two teams are incredible to watch at their best, but I don’t think that’s what we get on Sunday. The Chiefs defense has been solid of late and has held 4 or their last 5 opponents to 10 points or less. While the Bengals should fare better than that with all of their offensive weapons, I don’t love them to break down KC consistently given how strong the Chiefs secondary has looked. While Mahomes is also starting to get this offense humming at full speed again, they’re dealing with major injuries at the RB and TE positions, and the Bengals are able to make teams one dimensional with their run defense which will allow them to provide extra support to contain this passing attack. From a strategy standpoint, this is also a crucial game for both teams in their playoff positioning and I see this being a game where both play a little more cautious and avoid big mistakes rather than getting too aggressive. It won’t be a dull game, but 51 is a bit too high here and I think the mid 40s is a realistic expectation. Take the under again.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 51

MORE: Chiefs vs. Bengals simulator

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Eagles vs. Washington: Sun January 2, 4 PM EST

Washington has given up. It’s a product of a ton of factors, some of which are understandable, but they simply have nothing left to play for and they showed it against Dallas on SNF. Injuries have obviously been a big issue for Washington, but this team wasn’t all that great to begin with and, having been eliminated from the playoff picture, they’re probably already thinking about trips to the food bank and their charity work (or, you know, trips to warm places and nights at the club but I decided to put a positive spin on things). As for the Eagles, I still don’t trust this team at all and I’m looking for opportunities to fade them when important games roll around, but they’ve stepped up against lesser competition and Hurts has learned to mask his throwing weaknesses by using his legs effectively. Giving up 3 on the road in a divisional matchup is a bit of a risk, but the gap in quality between these two teams is huge at the moment and the injuries that WFT is dealing with, particularly on the defensive end, are just too much to overcome. Lay down the 3.

⛏️ PICK: Eagles -3

MORE: Eagles vs. Washington simulator

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Vikings vs. Packers: Sun January 2, 8:30 PM EST

I bet a couple of unders, time to buck that trend and have some fun. This game could get out of hand pretty quickly and sets up to be an extremely fun matchup so long as the Green Bay weather doesn’t fuck everything up (just build a dome guys, nobody wants to play in subfreezing weather. Honestly, maybe it’s just that nobody wants to go to Green Bay, move the damn team). The Vikings are holding on for dear life in the playoff race and a win against Green Bay is necessary. While that might mean more cagey play in most cases, the Vikings beat teams by scoring and I think they get aggressive here to outgun the Packers because they don’t have much of a prayer of slowing down Rodgers. And, unfortunately for Minnesota, the Packers still have to play for a victory to lock up the 1 seed here unless Dallas loses to Arizona, which means Rodgers will be slinging the ball all over the field. If the Dallas result turns out differently than expected, you may want to adjust your approach on this bet, but even if that occurs it’s going to be difficult for the Packers to pivot their gameplan on short notice and I think Rodgers goes out and puts up some numbers to lock up the MVP race. Over 46 for these two is a bit low with all of the offensive weapons on the field, and I like this game to make it over the line at that number

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 46

MORE: Vikings vs. Packers simulator