Prospector Sam's Week 15 NFL Best Bets and Props

Prospector Sam is back on deck to provide the Dimers community with free picks for the Week 15 NFL slate.

Money is on the line everywhere this week. From betting on the real games to fantasy, there isn’t a soul who cares about football that won’t be glued to a TV come Sunday, and I can’t imagine anything better than that. If you’re lucky enough to be one of those people with a FF bye this week, I’m happy for you but also you’re missing out. The highs and lows of a fantasy weekend with everything on the line is like taking a kilo of cocaine and shoving it straight up your nose, and I’m going to say that you guys who don’t get to experience that are the real losers (well, the people who actually lose this weekend might be, but oh well).

As an aside, I also want to point out the small flaw in my plan for betting props that came up last week. Since I write these articles well in advance, it makes things a bit more difficult and I can’t always predict what will happen between publishing and Sunday. Sometimes that can be great because I get bets in early before bad line shifts, but other times we have write ups on players to score a touchdown who don’t even end up playing due to a concussion. Alas, I’m not perfect and until I can quit my real job to do nothing but write silly sports articles all day there will always be a few cracks here and there.

But hey, that doesn’t mean we stop trying, so let’s get back to it with another round of bets! ⤵️

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM where you can throw down $10 and win $200 if there's just a single touchdown in the game you bet on.

Free NFL Picks For Week 15, 2021

Jets vs. Dolphins: Sun Dec 19, 1PM EST

The Jets defense is an absolute nightmare. Giving up 30 PPG in the NFL is a pretty impressive feat, and kudos to them for continuing to be one of the most inept franchises in all of sports. Consistency is the key to life, so they say, and the Jets are undeniably one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. While that lead in may have you ready to give up the points on Miami, I think that approach is a bit riskier than the Over so I’m taking the total. As mentioned, the Jets give up 30 fucking points per game and the Dolphins should be able to get close to that number in Miami with a home crowd and some nice weather (projected 83 degrees for this game, god that sounds lovely. Note to self, move to Miami). As for the Jets, the offensive production hasn’t been awful and they’re guaranteed to give the Dolphins a couple of short fields by making boneheaded mistakes for turnovers, which will lead to some quick points. Without Elijah Moore this offense is a bit more limited (see what I did there?) but I think they can produce at a high enough level against a Dolphins team giving up over 22 per game to get us over the line. 41 points is fairly low for an NFL total, and with two inept defenses I think these teams handle that task.

⛏️  PICK: Total points OVER 41

MORE: Jets vs. Dolphins simulator

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Texans vs. Jaguars: Sun Dec 19, 1PM EST

The news of Urban Meyer getting fired sort of threw a wrench in my plans here, but I think the stain he left will take more than a few days to clean off so I’m sticking with my gut. These teams are both absolutely awful, and I’m going to pick the smart route and take the 5 points because I cannot imagine giving up that many on a Jaguars team whose highest point total in the last 7 weeks is 17. While Urban Meyer’s lifeless corpse will no longer be standing on the sidelines, this playbook and roster still has his grubby fingers all over it and they’ll need some time to get Lawrence back on track after wasting a year of development. The Texans, admittedly, aren’t much better either, but Davis Mills looks somewhat competent throwing the ball and players like Brandon Cooks are at least showing flashes of usefulness on offense. This game has pain written all over it, and I’ll gladly grab 5 in a battle that feels like a pure coin flip to me.

⛏️ PICK: Texans +5

MORE: Texans vs. Jaguars simulator

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Bengals vs. Broncos: Sun Dec 19, 4PM EST

It feels like it may be going under the radar since nobody wants to talk about the Broncos, but this Denver Defense has been scary good. They give up 17.5 points per game, and as the winter drags its way into Denver it’s only going to get harder to score in battles like this. They held KC to 22 points two weeks ago and San Diego to 13 the week prior, which tells you about all you need to know considering those are two of the best offenses in the NFL at the moment. Are they good enough to beat Cincinnati? Probably, but putting your fate in the hands of check down Teddy is always a dangerous game and I think the Under is a better play. As mentioned, this Denver defense is a nightmare to break down and, in a fairly hostile environment (both in terms of fans and climate) I don’t think Burrow and Co. put up all that many. On the other side of the ball, Denver is in for a painful game considering that Cincinnati’s defense is strong against the run which will force the Broncos to rely more heavily on Bridgewater’s arm that they would like, a reality that doesn’t bode well for their offensive production. This feels like a late season game that grinds slowly and doesn’t have too many fireworks, and I think 44 is too high of a fence for them to climb. Go with the under.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 44

MORE: Bengals vs. Broncos simulator

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Washington vs. Eagles: Tues Dec 21, 7PM EST

With Covid going around, this week is filled with landmines. It’s hard to know what the hell will happen with decimated rosters and if any of this stuff will be relevant come Sunday, but that won’t stop me from giving it a whirl. And, in line with that, I’m going to dive head first into a game where Covid has already fucked everything up and pushed the line toawrds Philly based on the fact that Washington’s entire defensive line can’t play. While that may be an issue for WFT, I think it’s actually a benefit to us (not the Covid part, to be clear, just the line) because I’ll gladly take the 9.5 points against the Eagles. The Eagles are pretty banged up offensively with injuries to Hurts, Sanders and Quez Watkins, and their passing game is absolutely awful aside from throwing the ball to Goedert. While WFT’s offense isn’t spectacular, they still manage to put somewhere around 14-20 points on the board per game and they’re fantastic at shortening the clock with their methodical offense and run attack. I think the Eagles win this game, but in a Divisional battle with both sides fighting for their playoff lives, I think this one ends up being closer than the books do. Take the points.

Editor's note: This game has been moved since Sam wrote this, but the pick stands!

⛏️ PICK: Washington +9.5

MORE: Washington vs. Eagles simulator

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Best Prop Picks for NFL Week 15:

Jonathon Taylor - Under 93.5 Rushing Yards: Belichick is notorious for his approach on defense, which centers around taking away his opponent’s best option and forcing them to beat the Patriots somewhere else. The Colts best option and biggest positive from this season has been the emergence of Jonathon Taylor as a clear top RB and possible MVP candidate, and Bill is going to do everything in his power to force the Colts to throw the ball by stacking the box tempting Wentz to shift to passing plays. Betting unders isn’t always fun, but it’s the right play here.

Alvin Kamara - Anytime TD (+115): This number is extremely generous for a team with only one real weapon. Sure, the Bucs so a great job of stopping the run, but Kamara’s ability extend far into the passing game and he’ll be given opportunities to both run and catch the ball. At positive odds for Kamara to score in a game that I expect to have more than a couple of TDs, I’ll gladly ride the talent of our friend Alvin. Also, if you haven't got a FanDuel account, the below offer is definitely for you. 25/1 (+2500) on there being a single TD scored by anyone in this game. You're welcome!

MORE: Week 15 Most Likely Touchdown Scorers