Prospector Sam's Week 14 NFL Best Bets and Props

Prospector Sam is back on deck to provide the Dimers community with free picks for the Week 14 NFL slate.

This week is exciting for a whole bunch of reasons. My Patriots went into Buffalo and emasculated the Bills, with the cherry on top being McDermott pouting about Bill Belichick getting credit like a toddler who had his toys taken away. We’re also approaching the playoffs and one of the best periods of sports for the year, which is enough to make my cartoon heart sparkle like the star on top of your tree (or flame on top of your menorah, etc. I try to be inclusive here). But, most importantly, I have extra time to write about the NFL with college football on hiatus which means a new segment for all of you.

I pick somewhere around 5 games every week, and I actually think that’s a pretty good number. With a limited number of options it’s not typically a good idea to bet every single game and expect to find value, so I’m reluctant to start throwing out 10 NFL bets on the spread or total. But, while I won’t be doing that, I do want to start getting into prop betting on here, which I find to be a very valuable endeavor in the NFL world. I’m a multi-talented cartoon, and it’s time to show some yoga-like flexibility to expand my value to all the gold diggers.

So, without further ado, here are my picks for the week, with the addition of a few player props to wet your whistle and make a few extra bucks. ⤵️

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM where you can bet $10 and win $200 if there's just a single touchdown in the game you bet on.

Free NFL Picks For Week 14, 2021

Ravens vs. Browns: Sun Dec 12, 1PM EST

It’s extremely bizarre and kind of fucked up that the Browns are playing the Ravens in back to back games (with a Bye Week thrown in between for them). A chance at redemption? Possibly, but I don’t see it. The Ravens are struggling and Lamar Jackson can’t seem to produce at the levels he has in years past (but dont worry, he highly doubts that teams have figured him out), but the Browns aren’t going to be good until they get Baker Mayfield healthy. The week of rest will certainly help with his injury, but it’s been clear for a month that he cannot play professional football with 300 pound men running at him, trying to take his head off, with a broken humerus. That’s why, despite the fact that Baltimore has enough issues to fill a super yacht, I like them to win this game. We saw exactly that 2 weeks ago when the Ravens won 16-10 on the back of some solid defense and just enough offense to not embarrass themselves, and I think we get more of the same here (with possibly a bit more production if the Ravens find a way to get their passing game going). Cleveland just doesn’t have the offensive talent to produce unless they run the ball effectively, and the Ravens have one of the best run defenses in the league which makes me doubt their ability to keep up here. Take the Ravens to cover the 2.5 point spread.

⛏️  PICK: Ravens -2.5

MORE: Ravens vs. Browns simulator

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Cowboys vs. Washington: Sun Dec 12, 1PM EST

Washington has won four straight games, and I don’t think anyone has a clue how. Well, we sort of do. Setting aside the win over Tampa which makes absolutely no sense to anyone, this team has won three close games over pretty bad opposition, and I think it’s more smoke and mirrors than actually being a good (Washington) football team. Chase Young is out for the season which takes their defense down a few notches, and the offense can’t even seem to figure out how to get Terry McLaurin, one of the better wide receivers in the NFL, any consistent production. As for the Cowboys, things have taken a step back after everyone started marking them as a Super Bowl contender a month ago, but they’re getting healthier at the receiver position (which will help open up Cee Dee Lamb) and their defense hasn’t been nearly as much of a liability as it has in recent seasons. It may feel like a while ago, but Dallas is the last team to beat New England and they thoroughly decimated that tough defense, which gives me some optimism that they can do the same here against a weaker WFT unit. The line is a bit scary at -4 without the FG protection, but I think the Cowboys are closer to a TD better and I’m willing to give up the points.

⛏️ PICK: Cowboys -4

MORE: Cowboys vs. Washington simulator

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Falcons vs. Panthers: Sun Dec 12, 1PM EST

Again? Again. What are we repeating you ask? Well, in recent weeks I’ve successfully implemented the simple strategy of “bet the under when you have two inept teams facing each other” and it’s worked swimmingly both times. This feels like another great candidate for a litany of offensive failure (look at me with the 10 cent SAT words), so we’re going to take a crack at the trifecta. To start, neither team averages more than 20 PPG on the year, which should already raise red flags about the 42.5 point total. Add in the fact that Cam Newton is starting again, which is an absolutely baffling decision after what he’s shown in the last 18 months, along with the Falcons seemingly having no game plan aside from “give the ball to Patterson,” and I just don’t see this game getting too score-happy. Carolina has one of the best defenses in the League, including a sub-200 YPG passing number, and I think this turns into a dog fight where points are at a premium (assuming either of these teams actually wants to win). The final score should stay closer to the 17-14 mark overall, and I’ll gladly grab the under.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 42.5

MORE: Falcons vs. Panthers simulator

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49ers vs. Bengals: Sun Dec 12, 4PM EST

Call me crazy, but I still have confidence in this Bengals team after last week. Stopping Herbert when he’s firing is an absolute nightmare, and the Bengals had two turnovers so bad that they’re almost impossible to repeat (especially the Chase bobble into the arms of the defender). The Bengals moved the ball fairly well on offense, and should be able to keep that up against a Niners team that just gave up 30 to a Seahawks team that couldn’t score on anyone for months. Turning to San Fran, I think this matchup isn’t quite as great for them as people expect. The Bengals lose games because of their secondary, and top class QBs like Herbert, Rodgers and…. Mike White(?) have torn them up. But, when facing more limited QBs, they’ve found success because they can stop the run and force their opponent to throw the ball. While Jimmy G has fared better in the last few weeks, I don’t believe in him enough to put the game on his back and I think the Bengals can hold them off enough to give their offense a chance to win the game. As Tee Higgins steps up and defenses have to basically pick their poison for how they want to get beat, I think Cincy becomes more dangerous over the next couple of months and I think they handle this game at home. Take the bonus point and go with the Bengals

⛏️ PICK: Bengals +1

MORE: 49ers vs. Bengals simulator

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Rams vs. Cardinals: Mon Dec 13, 8:30PM EST

One big win over the Jaguars does not paper over three straight losses. As expected, the Rams blew the doors off Jacksonville for a much needed win, but there are still a ton of flaws in this LA team (mostly on the defensive end) and I’ve seen too much consistency from Arizona to bet against them here. It was impressive enough that this team kept things together without Murray or Hopkins, but both looked impressive in their return last weekend and this defense still averages less than 19 PPG. The Rams and Cardinals already faced off in week 4 when both were looking strong and the Cardinals crushed the Rams in LA by 17 points. While I don’t expect quite as much disparity here, the running ability of Murray coupled with an additional weapon in Ertz will make them pretty damn tough for the Rams defense to stop, and LA is too one dimensional (under 100 YPG on the ground) to be dangerous unless they can break teams open with the passing game. The Cardinals play solid on that end of the field so I doubt the Rams carve through them, and I like the Arizona to take this game at home. Giving up less than 3 points, I think the number is fairly safe as well.

⛏️ PICK: Cardinals -2.5

MORE: Rams vs. Cardinals simulator

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Touchdown Scorers:

Marvin Jones (+250): For a 8-4 team, Tennessee’s defense is an impressive type of terrible and their main failure is that they can’t stop anyone through the air. Marvin Jones is by far the best receiver in this Jacksonville unti and has built some trust with Lawrence, so at +250 I think there’s a ton of value on him to find the endzone in a game that should have more than a couple of scores.

Tevin Coleman (+190): The Jets showed a lot of belief last week in Coleman and he looks to be taking a hold of that #1 spot over Ty Johnson. Scoring may be limited for this Jets team on Sunday, but Coleman is the goal line back for this team and should see one or two opportunities against an average New Orleans defense that hasn’t let up less than 27 points since October.

Javonte Williams (-170): The Lions may have picked up a win last week, but they still sit in last place in the NFL and their defense struggles against the run. Javonte has clearly taken over the role as lead back in this Broncos offense, and I think he finds the end zone despite Denver’s offense only putting up 20 per game.