Prospector Sam - NCAA Tournament Picks: Saturday 20 March

It's Day 2 of March Madness. That means there are already some busted brackets, and likely a decent amount of hangovers on Saturday morning, but also still a boatload of opportunities to make some money on the boards.

Now is not the time to slow down or quit. Push through the pain! I’m here with you every step of the way, and we’ll make it through together (hopefully much richer than we were). Speaking of....

🏀 Colorado-Georgetown

People seem to really like Georgetown in this game. I kind of get it; the Hoyas came back from their Covid pause looking like a much better team and then won the Big East Title. Well, except that all needs a big old asterisk next to it. For one, it would be hard to be much worse than they were pre-Covid (3-8), and they “improved” in a weak Big East. And, setting aside the conference tournament, they only won one of five games against the three solid teams (‘Nova, Creighton, UConn). Then the Big East Championship came around and they drew a couple of really nice matchups including a completely neutered Villanova squad. As for the championship game, you can be impressed with the Hoyas all you want, but that struck me more as a complete implosion by Creighton rather than a stellar showing by the DC school. But hey, feel free to disagree. On the other side, its hard to make heads or tails of this Colorado team. McKinley Wright is clearly pretty good, but the Pac 12 looked pretty bad to me this year so nothing they did during the regular season was all that impressive. But, while that may be true, the body of work speaks for itself. The Buffaloes went 14-6 and stayed competitive in all but two games this year. While Georgetown has stepped up their level of play, ignoring the month and a half of terrible basketball is pretty hard to do. This team barely eclipsed a .500 record, and Ewing is still very much in the process of rebuilding. Making the Dance is big for him going forward, but right now the roster is weaker than it needs to be to be competitive on the big stage. At 6.5 points on this spread, I think the line is generous to CU and is skewed by the amount of love Georgetown is getting. I like Colorado to handle this one comfortably by around 10 points.

💰 Pick: Colorado -6.5

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🏀 UNC Greensboro-FSU

Call me crazy, but my biggest upset in the first round is this one. UNC fits the perfect mold for what I want to see in a big upset like this. A team that defends well and can get hot offensively on a good night. On the other side, I’ve been thoroughly unimpressed with the ‘Noles over the last moth. Their talent is undoubted, and the Spartans have no business being competitive based on the quality on the court, but FSU is turning the ball over at a disgusting clip and haven’t gotten their heads on straight for a long time. The ACC tournament highlighted those issues, but ugly losses to UNC and Notre Dame in the last few weeks of conference play show that things just aren’t right at the moment with this team. Now, I’m not going to tell you to bet the money line, because, admittedly, that’s a bit of a fucking stretch. But getting 10.5 points, I think the Spartans are a solid bet. I think they give FSU a scare at the very least, and 6-foot guard Isaiah Miller is going to do damage despite being undersized (averaging almost 20 PPG on the year).

💰 Pick: UNCG +10.5

🏀 St Bonaventure-LSU

This matchup might be the one that I struggled the most over when picking my bracket. Normally I look at the games as they come out and I have some sort of idea about what I like or don’t like, but this one killed me for a while. Really, that has a lot to do with the fact that I just don’t know what the fuck to do with St. Bonaventure. Sometimes I watch them and I think “wow, they could do real damage this year.” Other days, not so much. They finished 16-4 which is impressive in itself, but the A10 was not all that great and its hard to point to any victory as significant. The A10 title game might qualify, both because VCU is solid and because that was a pressure game, but it doesn’t turn the needle enough to convince me. LSU isn’t without their issues either. They’ve won some big games and almost stole the SEC championship, but this team also lost to UGA less than a month ago. The important thing for me is that this team has won big games in the last month too, including victories over Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri. They may not be equipped to make a deep run, but Cameron Thomas is a beast and will be by far the best player on the court. At the end of the day, big players win games in the tournament and I think the Tiger come out of this one with the W. With the line at just 1.5, I’ll take them to cover here.

💰 Pick: LSU -1.5

🏀 Drake-USC

I don’t know how anyone could have watched that First Four game and felt good about Drake. Were it not for a pretty embarrassing second half by Wichita State, and their best player going completely dead, they would have lost by 20. Even with that, they barely survived for a 1-point win, and clearly cannot score the basketball at an effective rate. USC isn’t all that special on the defensive end, but they really don’t need to be to keep this Bulldogs team in check. Oh, and they have a guy named Evan Mobley who is more talented than anyone Drake has seen this season by a long shot, which will cause huge issues for them on the defensive end. USC isn’t exactly a loaded roster and I didn’t love them to do much damage when the bracket came out. In fact, I saw them as a loser to Wichita in the first round, but that dream died with all of the Shockers dignity. So now, tail between my legs, I have to go back to the Trojans, who I think have a great matchup here. There’s often concern that the First Four winner will have built momentum off their win and take that into their next matchup, but I don’t really see how Drake can feel all that positive about their 53-52 win over Wichita. I expect USC benefits from the extra rest, and handles Drake comfortably.

💰 Pick: USC -6

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🏀 GCU-Iowa

It's no surprise that I would be betting the Hawkeyes, since I have them as my national champion. Clearly I think they’re better than others in my profession do (what, I don’t count as a sports media professional? This is some bullshit!). Seriously though, I think this line is way too low. Iowa made a habit of tearing teams apart with their offense in the best conference in the country. Now they’re facing the winners of the WAC who, while solid, haven’t seen anything close to Luke Garza and co. this year. I just don’t see any outcome where this doesn’t end up being an absolute blowout. The only danger is Iowa’s tendency to lapse defensively, and if they don’t take the Antelopes seriously they could risk letting them hang around into the second half. GCU isn’t a great mid-major, but they have enough talent and skill to take advantage of bad play. The Hawkeyes have shown me over the last month and a half though (losing just two Big 10 games to Michigan and Illinois), that they have their heads on straight and can handle this matchup easily. Take Iowa to win by 20+.

💰 Pick: Iowa -14.5

🏀 Ohio-Virginia

It feels odd to be betting against the team I picked in my bracket at such a slim line, but it’s the right call here. UVA has Covid issue and nobody really knows how bad the impact is. Add in a late travel schedule and no practice time prior to the tournament, and you can expect things to be choppy for the Cavaliers in this game. But while I don’t expect them to completely outplay Ohio, they still have way too much talent for all the love that the Bobcats are getting. I love a good upset as much as the next guy when the right play comes along, but this ain’t it. Jason Preston is a great player who can cause teams problems, but UVA is a defensive team who will give extra coverage when he has the ball and force Ohio to use the other four guys on the floor. And, shocking as it may be, Ohio is not filled with a deep roster of talent. They finished just 5^th in the MAC and rely too heavily on Preston to be considered a solid contender against UVA. On the other hand, I also don’t see them getting blown out due to the issues the Cavaliers are facing. UVA doesn’t score a ton to begin with, so large margin victories are hard to come by for them. In a situation like this, it becomes even more likely that they’ll burn the game down and suck the life out of Ohio, without ever really getting ahead by too much. So I like the points here for the Bobcats, who I expect will lose by around 5.

💰 Pick: Ohio +7.5

🏀 UCLA-BYU

It was an impressive performance by Mick Cronin’s team to hang around with MSU and never let them separate enough to finish the game. UCLA never looked like the better team, but they waited for the Spartans to slip up and Izzo’s men eventually blew it. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but it was wild to see an MSU team play so poorly down the stretch in March. More important for me, though, is that I absolutely do not think that this BYU team is good. They hang their hat on a decent win over SDSU early in the year, and then not getting blown out in any of their 3 losses to Gonzaga. I guess that’s something to brag about?... Back to reality, BYU’s one game against a big conference team was against USC, and they got their skull bashed in 79-53. So while the Cougars had a solid WCC season, they do not feel at all like a 6 Seed to me. I think this game is closer to a toss up between two fairly average teams, and unlike Drake I think that the Bruins will take a lot of momentum from walking away with that OT victory in the First Four. The Bruins still aren’t a dark horse team to make a big run in my eyes, but they’re good enough to handle BYU and I think they do in this one. As he showed on Thursday, Juzang is a nightmare to contain and they have enough of a supporting cast to cause other problems for the Mormons. Give me UCLA to cover with a few bonus points.

💰 Pick: UCLA +3.5

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