Prospector Sam - NCAA Tournament Picks: Monday 22 March

Woof, I am tired. Monday caps off the first weekend of March Madness, and I have been going nonstop.

Between writing five straight days (I normally write once a week) and then watching every damn game I can get my eyeballs on, I’ve barely had time for basic life necessities. But that’s how much I care about all of you, and how much I fucking love winning.

One more shot at glory on this holiest of basketball weekends, no time like the present.

Want to make the easiest money of the month? New PointsBet customers can bet $20 on the spread or moneyline of any NCAA March Madness Game, and get $150 IF A SINGLE POINT IS SCORED. Yep, you read that right, a single point.

Sign up to PointsBet here to take advantage of this WILD offer.

🏀 Oregon vs. Iowa

Well, Oregon could be the first team to take the national championship with 5 tournament wins since the bracket moved to 64 teams. Better to be lucky than good, I suppose, and you certainly can’t lose if you don’t have to play.

Assuming that Iowa is able to show up, though, Oregon is in for a tough matchup. They actually don’t set up all that badly against this Iowa team, who isn’t necessarily all that skilled at the guard position and relies heavily on Luka Garza for a significant amount of its offense.

The Ducks are extremely athletic and the combo of Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi will cause problems for the Hawkeyes. They’re going to get buckets, especially against an Iowa defense that showed in round 1 that they are extremely susceptible to lazy defensive play because of how much they score.

So the question is, do the Hawkeyes have enough in them to break away from Oregon. My answer, surprisingly, is no. This game sets up to be a back and forth slugfest, and Oregon will be brimming with energy coming off a couple extra days of rest and practice time. They aren’t a better team than Iowa, but having that bye plays in the Ducks favor in my opinion.

I expect them to take it to the Big 10 giants, and likely keep this game close all the way to the end. As someone who picked Iowa to win it all, I don’t love that I think this game might come down to who has the ball last, but I trust what I see and, in this case, I think it ends up being a one-score game. Take the points.

💰 Pick: Oregon +5

Thinking of going one step and taking them at the moneyline? If you correctly pick an underdog at the moneyline in round one or two, you could turn $4 into $256 with DraftKings Sportsbook! 

Find out more about this offer here.

🏀 Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga

Hahahahahahah, oh man, is this line is a joke. Gonzaga is good, and they beat up on a completely helpless Norfolk State team in the first round. But this is March Madness, and Oklahoma was a top 10 team at one point this year.

Get the fuck out of here with a 14.5 point line in the second round, especially on a team who hasn’t faced real competition since December. There really is absolutely nothing else to be said here.

Oklahoma has injury issues, and is too reliant on Austin Reaves to like them to win this game. But they’ve beaten WVU, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama this season, all of whom were top-3 seeds. They aren’t some pushover program for Gonzaga to go beat up on. I would hammer this line if I were you.

💰 Pick: Oklahoma +14.5

Looking to make some money on the moneyline in this one? Get Supercharged +100 ODDS with William Hill Sportsbook for Gonzaga to win against Oklahoma in the Second Round. Exc IL, NV & DC. Max Bet $50.

🏀 Abilene Christian vs. UCLA

This write up is going to read almost exactly like my pick for Villanova and UNT yesterday. Kudos to the Wildcats for pulling a crazy upset over Texas, but that was entirely due to the Longhorns shooting themselves straight in the face (saying they shot themselves in the foot isn’t nearly enough for how bad they were).

22 turnovers is appalling, and I guarantee UCLA won't replicate that number. More importantly, the Bruins biggest weakness, the fact that they’ve lost two of their biggest big men this season, isn’t going to be as much of a problem against an Abilene team whose center looks like he needs to cut out the extra 6 pack of donuts in the morning.

Oh, and Johnny Juzang is going to eat them alive. ACU’s Damien Daniels is a cool story at just 5 foot 7 in D1 basketball, but there’s a reason you don’t see that often. It's an issue for being competitive at this level, and that sentiment carries over to most of their players (in terms of lacking D1 level measurables).

If the Wildcats have a great shooting night they could compete here, but they didn’t even manage that against Texas. They scored just 53 points, but all they had to do is wait for Texas to fuck themselves and the Longhorns made it happen. Credit to Abilene for a win in the NCAA Tournament, but I think UCLA kills them.

💰 Pick: UCLA -5

 

Want the best betting promos to use this March Madness? FanDuel Sportsbook has got you.

🏀 Ohio vs. Creighton

Creighton really shouldn’t be here, if we’re being honest. UCSB imploded in the last couple of minutes, and missed a bunny to end the game that would have given them the victory.

But the Bluejays are still alive, which is all that matters. On the other side, Ohio put in am impressive performance against UVA, even with the Cavaliers shutting down Jason Preston. UVA may not have been fully themselves with all of the Covid issues and lack of practice, but there is no doubting that Ohio was impressive offensively against one of the best defensive units in the country.

Between that, and the terrible output I’ve seen from Creighton recently (I haven’t forgotten that Big East Title game), I think I actually like Ohio to keep things rolling and maybe even beat Creighton. Jason Preston is going to do a ton more damage against a weaker Bluejays defense, and Creighton looks completely lost on the offensive end. 𝑆𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑙𝑒 in a bit of ML, but also bet the line heavy on this one.

💰 Pick: Ohio +5.5

 

🏀 LSU vs. Michigan

Once again, LSU has me left puzzling. I talked before the first round about how tough it was to choose their matchup with Bonaventure, but ultimately ended up on the right side of things with the Tigers (who demolished the Bonnies).

Now, I’m left feeling like LSU might actually have some fight in them, between that performance and their SEC Tournament run, and I have less faith in Michigan than I would have at this line (5.5) just a few days ago.

But, at the end of the day, I’m not going to second guess myself like I did with Loyola, and I’m going to roll with the Wolverines. LSU has had some solid performances, but I didn’t believe the A10 was all that good and St. Bonaventure did nothing to prove differently (I guess I wont blame VCU for having to forfeit, but they didn’t help either). LSU pulled off some solid wins down the stretch, but they’ve never been all that convincing this year, and they’re entirely too dependent on Cameron Thomas.

Michigan isn’t the same team without Isaiah Livers, but they’re still pretty damn good and Juwan Howard has proven that he can lead this team to the top of the sport. I expect he gameplans to help heavily on Thomas in the defensive end, and then uses Dickinson’s height to cause issue for LSU both in the paint and on kick-outs. The Tigers just don’t have the height to match up with him, and I believe that will be the difference in this one.

💰 Pick: Michigan -5.5

 

🏀 Colorado vs. FSU

I was watching commentary and analysis on games after the first round, and somehow there seemed to be a bunch of optimism about FSU. My response to that is; did any of you people actually watch their game against UNCG?

The Seminoles played well enough and never got behind, but it was a 3-point game with around 3 minutes left and they couldn’t pull away from a team who had just one player averaging double digit points on the year.

The ‘Noles eventually ran away a bit at the end, mostly because they just had too much athleticism for the Spartans, but nothing about that performance was impressive. Conversely, Colorado came out and curb-stomped Georgetown in a game that was never even remotely close after the first few minutes. McKinley Wright is a monster, and this team isn’t going to struggle all that much with the athleticism of FSU.

So while others may be looking to FSU as a potential threat to make a run, I honestly believe that “run” ends here. FSU improved against UNCG by only turning the ball over 15 times. Yes, that actually is an improvement for them. But they still give up the ball way too much, and Colorado will exploit those mistakes way more than a Mid Major team can.

Unless the ‘Noles start playing cleaner basketball, they’re going to find themselves in a world of trouble by giving up easy transition baskets off turnovers, and I don’t think they’re playing well enough to overcome that. Take the Buffaloes in this one.

💰 Pick: Colorado +1.5

 

🏀 Maryland vs. Alabama

As somebody who picked Maryland to win their matchup with UConn, I was honestly a bit surprised by all of the love the Huskies were getting. That team was athletic but had shown huge holes all year in a fairly weak Big East.

I don’t think it should have been surprising that a strong defensive unit like Maryland would exploit those issues. Unfortunately for the Terps, Alabama is a whole different beast. Iona managed to hang around with the Tide by slowing the game down and getting them out of rhythm, but eventually Alabama just blasted through them because this team has way too much talent to hold down for 40 minutes.

That plays fairly well into this matchup, where Maryland is going to try the same damn thing and hope they can win by holding Alabama down on the offensive end for a low scoring game. Iona did a pretty damn good job trying, but the scoreline still ended at a 13-point margin, and I don’t expect Alabama to struggle as much against that strategy the second time around.

The Tide shoot the lights out on a good night, and Maryland is not equipped to make comebacks. If Alabama gets out early, which I expect they do in this game, MD isn’t going to have a chance at staying in this one. Take Alabama to win by closer to 10.

💰 Pick: Alabama -5.5

 

🏀 Kansas vs. USC

Here is a great opportunity to make some money. Credit to USC for winning their First Round game, but Drake was never good enough to be here and they wouldn’t have had a prayer against almost any opponent.

But, because of how good the Trojans looked relative to the lowly Bulldogs, they’ve been bumped all the way to a favorite here. Kansas isn’t all that special, and they struggled for much of their first game against Eastern Washington, but this team has been playing great basketball recently, including wins over TTU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the last month, and they’re certainly the more talented team on the whole (though Evan Mobley might be the best player on the floor).

Kansas spreads the ball well and gets production from a number of players, which will help balance their scoring and allow them to attack USC in a bunch of ways. As long as they can keep a lid on Mobley, the Jayhawks should be able to handle this game comfortably, and as positive odds for the ML I think the value here is great.

💰 Pick: Kansas ML

---

RELATED:

🏀 Ian Gold's Monday NCAA Picks
🏀 Dimers' Best March Madness Picks

---

How can you bet on the College Basketball?

All of the major online sportsbooks offer betting markets for all college basketball games throughout the NCAA Tournament. If you're just starting out in sports betting, we recommend checking our Best Books page for a full rundown on what all the different books can offer you to maximize your first deposit with them. Don't have time to read? Then check out William Hill - they're offering a $2021 risk-free bet during March Madness. That means, if you lose your first bet, you'll get a chance to bet again. Click here to sign up with William Hill.

Follow @dimerscom

Ready to join a Sportsbook and start betting online? We’ve listed the best available Welcome Offers for each legal betting state.

The best offers in your state👇