Prospector Sam - NCAA Tournament Picks: Friday March 19

Oh boy, what an exciting set of games we had on Thursday!

Seriously though, the First Four is really just a tease to get you all hot and bothered before the real thing. Luckily, unlike real life, there is a zero percent chance that March Madness decides to cut things short right before the good part. That’s a life lesson for you folks; people can leave you, but degenerate gambling and sports never will. As promised, though, I’m all business this week, so no long lead in or funny story. I’m a serious man and I take my sports gambling seriously! (did you believe me?) Let’s get to it, with my favorite Friday bets.

🏀 Arkansas-Colgate

Colgate is getting a lot of love as a sneaky upset pick, and it shows here with just an 8.5 point spread for a 3-14 matchup. If I were you, I’d hammer the Razorbacks. Not only does that line present some value between two teams with a massive gap in talent, but Colgate does not match up well in this game. Both of these programs win by playing fast and scoring a bunch, so there really isn’t a ton of doubt about how this will play out. Unfortunately for the Raiders, that isn’t really a good recipe for an upset, or even for keeping things close. Generally speaking, you see very low seeded teams win games when they can hold down the favorite defensively and shoot above their normal output by getting hot on the offensive end. But here, Colgate doesn’t project to play much defense if they want to keep their pace of play, and their goal is already to put up close to 80 if they want to be competitive (meaning they’d need to get to astoundingly high numbers to outdo themselves). Basically, while this game sets up to be an absolute blast for the casual viewer, it just does not strike me as a good upset opportunity. In fact, if both of these teams try to outdo each other with pure skill, I’m going to take the one filled with high caliber SEC recruits to win that battle every time. I think the Razorbacks are comfortable winners here, in the range of 12-15 points.

💰 Pick: Arkansas -8.5

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🏀 Utah St-TTU

There is absolutely no doubting that Neemias Queta is an incredible basketball player. The problem is, he’s also a dinosaur and a dangerous piece to rely on. I fully expect that he will do some damage in the paint and grab a solid number of rebounds, but Texas Tech can score in bunches and they will absolutely attack Neemias to try to get him in foul trouble. If that happens, which isn’t all that crazy to expect with him defending players better than he’s used to seeing, the Aggies are in a tough spot trying to keep up with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech isn’t without their own issues. Their offense is spotty, largely due bouts of terrible spacing and poor execution as teammates look to Mac McClung to do it all for them. McClung himself is also prone to forcing the issue way too much, and their hopes in this tournament actually depend a lot on him trying to do less, not more (which will open him up for a better percentage of good shots). But in this game, I just don’t see the Aggies having the quality to execute at the level necessary to compete. Their deep shooting is suspect, and they would have to get hot from deep in order to win. From what I’ve seen, that may be asking too much from this set of shooters. I like TTU to take this game, though it wont be a blowout. Late free throws probably end up being the difference at this line.

💰 Pick: TTU -4.5

 

🏀 Loyola-GT

I’ve made no bones about about the fact that I think Loyola got royally screwed by the selection committee. This team was ranked in the Top 25 for the better part of the season (including the end of it), and there is absolutely no doubting their defensive quality. They may not have been able to showcase that on a bigger stage with legitimate out of conference games, but at 24-4 the body of work speaks for itself. They got a tough break running into a GT team who is riding high on an ACC Tournament Title and a 9 game win streak, but I have confidence that their defense can slow down a Tech team who isn’t particularly strong offensively. And while they did win that tournament, I wasn’t overly impressed with a slim victory against an FSU team who turned the ball over 23 damn times. That number should spell a blowout, but the Jackets hardly looked like the better team all game. Add into it that they are extremely unlikely to come anywhere close to that number of takeaways against the Ramblers, who play slow and protect the ball well, and I don’t love this matchup for GT. Moses Wright is an incredible player and he’s going to get his points no matter what, the issue is whether anybody else will. If Jose Alvarado can kick in more buckets and assists than normal then they can win this game, but I see Loyola just being too sound defensively to allow that to happen. GT’s best bet is to get ahead early because Loyola is not built to comeback from deficits, but if the Jackets don’t its going to be a tough hill to climb to get past the Ramblers. I can’t see it happening.

💰 Pick: Loyola -3

 

UPDATE!!! – I had already written this pick prior to Moses Wright being ruled out. Needless to say, if I liked Loyola at -3 against GT before, I still like them at -5.5 against a GT without the ACC Player of the Year.

💰 Pick: Loyola -5.5

 

🏀 Wisconsin-UNC

Well, this game typifies the season of NCAAB for me. We have two solid but underperforming teams that plan in the two best college basketball conference in the country, and you have to decide which one’s flaws are worse than the other. The answer for me, based on this season, is that putting money on the Badgers is the smarter choice. UNC has underperformed for their level of expectations generally, and in an ACC that was much weaker than normal to begin with, that should be a huge red flag. The Tar Heels pulled out a couple of solid wins over FSU and VT, but didn’t manage to beat any great teams, mostly because they just didn’t exist in the ACC this year. While they don’t have many bad losses aside from an anomalous massacre at the hands of Marquette, there was just nothing inspiring about this team and their play. They won enough games and beat up on some bad teams when they had the chance, but nobody who has watched them thinks this Tar Heels unit had a chance of making a deep run. Wisconsin’s biggest issue has been, simply, they were good but not good enough in a Big 10 that was better than normal. This team has won just 3 of their last 10, tanking them all the way to a 9 seed, but the lowest seed in the Tournament for opponents in those 7 losses is 4-seeded Purdue. You would have liked to see them steal a game or twoin that stretch, but you can’t exactly fault them for losing those games. Which is why I like the Badgers as a 1 and done winner here. They may not have been great this season, but they played a brutal conference schedule and managed to win games out of conference that mattered (Loyola, Louisville) which shows me they have more talent than teams in other conferences conferences. I don’t have a ton of faith in this Badgers team to make the second weekend, but I think they do enough to handle UNC. Their biggest issue will be minimizing the Tar Heels’ offensive rebounds, but Micah Potter and co. have the height and skill to manage that issue. I like the boys up north to take this one.

💰 Pick: Wisconsin ML

 

🏀 Cleveland State-Houston

Houston has gone through stretches where they legitimately look like one of the top teams in the country. They beat TTU early in the year by double digits and won most of the conference games by a heft margin. Then, every once in a while, they have days where they look completely lost and end up losing to Tulsa or ECU. I think there’s a lot to like about this Cougars team, and if they play top quality basketball they could make a run, but something about them just doesn’t feel fully put together. Add in the fact that the AAC really didn’t have much strong competition (they only managed a split with Wichita), and I don’t have the same level of high hopes for them that I see from other people. The big question here is, which Houston do we get? They easily could beat Cleveland State by 30 on their best day, but the Vikings aren’t exactly pushovers and Torrey Patton can ball. While the Horizon may not have been as strong in years past, its filled with programs like Wright State, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay that have given teams scares in the NCAA tournament. It strikes me as being a bit on the high end of mid-majors, and I think that will be reflected again in this Cleveland State team who finihsed 16-4 in conference play. Memphis kept things close with Houston twice over the last few weeks of the season, primarily due to efficient scoring and slowing down Houston’s tempo. Cleveland State will likely try to do the same with their pace, and will rely on Patton to provide the quality guard play you need to compete in the tournament. I don’t think the Vikings win, but I think this one ends closer to a 10-15 point Houston victory.

💰 Pick: Cleveland State +20.5

 

🏀 Rutgers-Clemson

Clemson may be one of the hardest teams in the country to figure out. In pre-conference play, they looked like they could be one of the top teams in the country, and wins over Alabama and Purdue look even better than they did at the time. Then conference play came around, and the Tigers largely tapered off, producing some solid wins but never really taking a hold of the conference like they could have. By the end, they looked dead as a doornail, losing to Syracuse with just 54 points scored and then getting knocked in their first ACC Tournament matchup against Miami. Regression might be an understatement. Credit them for winning important games early in the season, and I respect the committee for valuing those wins, but December feels like a long time ago for Clemson. Now, things aren’t all that much better for Rutgers. Early in the season they were pushing top-10 status, but hit a stretch in January where they lost 6 of 7 in conference play and never really got it all back together. Add in a gross loss to Nebraska and I wouldn’t blame anyone for not feeling good about this Rutgers team. But I like the Scarlet Knights, because I think they have the higher ceiling. Rutgers has been plagued by poor deep shooting to put it mildly, and their scoring is too skewed towards two point shots for the modern game. But when they are hitting, like they did early in the year, they beat teams like Illinois, Syracuse and Purdue with totals of 80 or above. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that they magically get hot, but I think their performance over the last month has been worse than they are capable of, and I think you could see them pick things up if momentum builds. They still play fairly strong defense and will be able to rely on consistent inside scoring, which is enough to make them a more dependable bet than the Tigers, and on their best night they have the better team on paper. This might not be my favorite pick of the day, but I certainly like.

💰 Pick: Rutgers -1.5

 

🏀 Syracuse-SDSU

If you ever want a clear example of me biting the bullet for my team (aka you guys), here it is. This is a bad matchup for the Orange, and it hurts me to say that (not that they deserve better). Everyone loves to talk about how the Zone (yes, we capitalize it, put some respect on Jim’s name) causes major issues for teams come tournament time because programs from other conferences have never seen a 2-3 this effective before. In fact, that’s probably still true here. But, as I’ve been saying for a few years, the Zone is faulty without a serious big man to patrol the pain, and the Orange have nothing close to that right now. So while the Aztecs will likely start slow as they figure out the movement scheme and shifting, they’ll be able to capitalize on extra space centrally that they can either use to attack the rim or dish out to shooters. The other major issue is that SDSU’s strength is actually on the defensive end, so the Zone really isn’t as much of a problem for them. They’re one of the better defensive teams in the country, and win games by slowing down their opponents. That isn’t good news for a spotty Syracuse team who relies heavily on Buddy Boeheim and the three-point ball. If the side cast of Guerrier, Girard and co. can provide production then the Orange have a chance, but its hard to see them over performing against a defense like this. More likely, SDSU will help on Buddy and cover the 3-point arc heavily, which will force the Orange to make other people score. That’s not a recipe for success, and I don’t think the Orange have enough to pull this out. I hope I’m wrong, but I very much believe I’m right.

💰 Pick: SDSU -3

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