Prospector Sam - NCAA Tournament First Four: Picks and Bets

Well folks, March Madness is here. Time to gamble like fucking degenerates.

If you’ve been waiting for the day where I put aside my weird anecdotes and confusing tangents for pure sports discussion, you’re in luck. Now, that would be a weird stance to take if we’re being honest, since you could easily go elsewhere for boring articles about the same content. But hey, I don’t judge, I’m just happy you’re here. This weekend is all about the basketball, so my ego, and the need to share whatever pops into my head, can be put aside for the “greater good” of March Madness. Picks, picks, and more picks. So, without further ado, lets get things started with my best bets of the First Four: 

Mt. St. Mary’s vs. Texas Southern

These openers between the worst teams in the Tournament are brutal to pick. That’s not an excuse to be used if I lose (but maybe I will), its just a fact. Both teams have usually played exactly 0 good teams, are both coming in hot having just won a conference tournament, and have very little going for them in terms of actual quality. Congrats on winning the SWAC and NEC gentlemen, but I’m not exactly impressed. These matchups are usually fun, though, because both teams will go after each other and give everything they have knowing that the winner is about to get their doors blown off by a 1 seed; Michigan, in this case (or maybe not? We can dream). Also, I imagine nothing is sadder then telling your grandkids in 40 years that you made the tournament, but then having to tell them you never actually got to play a real team because you lost to Western Bemidji University in a play-in game, so that should be motivation enough. Back to the game itself, I like Texas Southern. The Mount (credit for an awesome/ridiculous mascot) win by playing tough defense, but they have huge issues scoring. This team has not made it to 80 points in a game all season, which means they’re going to have to rely on slow play and shutting down Texas Southern. While the Tigers may not be a stellar team, they’ve proven they can score consistently, which makes me doubt MSM’s ability to keep a lid on them. On top of that, Texas Southern actually played a real out of conference schedule and got reps in against OK State and BYU, both solid tournament teams. That experience could prove to be the difference, and I think you see them take this game. Both of these units are led by high performing guards, and I think Michael Weathers has a bit of an edge over Damian Chong Qui (though I will admit, I didn’t watch a ton of either team). Betting this is just fun to give you some skin in a meaningless game, so take a shot on Texas Southern. 

👉 Pick: Texas Southern ML 

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MORE: Probabilities for Mt. St Mary's vs. Texas Southern

Drake vs. Wichita State

Alright, time to sink our teeth into a real game. I personally have picked the play-in winner for both 11 seed matchups to beat their opponent in the next round, so I have a decent amount riding on the outcome here (and I have somebody in mind, clearly). I think Wichita is a much better team, and I would hammer them in this game. Credit to Drake for making it, and they did so riding an extremely impressive season that outshot all expectations. They even came close to breaking the record for most consecutive spreads covered in D1 basketball, which shows how far they over performed. That said, they aren’t all that talented, and started to slide when they made it into the top 25 and the pressure began to mount. They lost 4 of their last 11, including getting handled easily in an MVC Final that most people thought was a game they had to have. Were it not for a 51-50 OT win over Loyola in the regular season, a score line that doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy about the Bulldogs, they certainly wouldn’t be here (they lost their other two games against Loyola by a combined 37 points). On the other side, Wichita is actually a solid team. They took Oklahoma State to the wire early in the year, and hung with teams like Houston and Missouri while beating Ole Miss and Oral Roberts (ok, that last one isn’t exactly impressive, but they made the Tournament and it helps my case). The major concern is that they tailed off hard towards the end of the season, and had a nightmarish showing in the AAC tournament. But, at their best, this team is much better than Drake and they faced a much higher caliber of conference opponent. There are concerns with Wichita’s scoring and free throw shooting, but in games like this I expect that the gap in talent level will be the difference. Drake will have trouble competing on the boards, and I think the Shockers handle them comfortably. 

👉 Pick: Wichita St. -1 

MORE: Probabilities for Drake vs. Wichita State

Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State

Credit where credit is due, Appalachian State won when it mattered, but I just can’t get past their losing record in the Sun Belt. It’s the fucking Sun Belt for god’s sake. Sure, the conference as a whole is probably a bit better than the MEAC, but that doesn’t excuse multiple losses to teams like South Alabama and Troy. On top of that, they don’t really score the ball well, and they have nobody who can take over a game. Their leading scorer, Adrian Delph, averages just 13.2 per game. Team work makes the dream work, so they say, but I’ll take a superstar in basketball every day of the week. Now, Norfolk State isn’t exactly throwing out an NBA caliber roster, or even a player good enough to ride pine in the D-League (G League? I don’t even know what it is any more, and I care so little I’m not even going to take the 5 seconds to look it up). But they finished atop their division in the regular season and are riding a 7-game win streak. At the end of the day, I’ll take the team that has proven to be consistent in a bet like this because I can have more confidence that they at least show up to the party. The Mountaineers are too liable to lay an egg, and I wouldn’t go throwing big money on them to continue their hot streak (not that I’d bet much on the Spartans either). Another fun pick just to have a reason to care, take to dog. 

👉 Pick: Norfolk St. +3 

MORE: Probabilities for App State vs. Norfolk State 

UCLA vs. Michigan State University

We’ve got a bit of alphabet soup going on here, and that image might be a good representation of how much of a jumbled mess both of these programs have been. Quite frankly, its pretty damn hard to trust either of them. UCLA has lost 4 straight, which means they’re backing their way into this matchup and probably aren’t playing with a ton of confidence. Michigan State might have been feeling good a week ago, after beating Illinois, Ohio State AND Michigan in the last month to get their name back into contention, but then Maryland wiped the floor with them in their first Big 10 Championship game and all that went to shit. So, again, good luck feeling positive about either team. Putting my storm clouds aside, I like the Spartans for two reasons. First, they play in a better conference and I feel less bad about some of their early losses given their recent form. Getting beaten by Northwestern is a bad look, but its far enough in the past that I can pretend it didn’t happen. Basically, the body of work is just better. On top of that, their ceiling is clearly much higher than the Bruins’. There is no doubting the quality of MSU’s three recent wins, while UCLA’s best victory was over.... Colorado. And that was their only solid win unless you want to count beating Oregon State as “impressive.” Add in the Izzo Factor, for whatever that’s worth, and I see this game tipping in MSUs favor so long as they give at least a half-assed effort. Hell, if they play well, they could win this thing by 20. So while there is a hefty amount of caution in my cautious optimism, I think the Spartans are the better bet here to move on to a first round date with BYU. 

👉 Pick: MSU -2 

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MORE: Probabilities for UCLA vs. Michigan State 

How can you bet on the College Basketball?

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