Prospector Sam - Breaking Down the 2021 NCAA March Madness Bracket

I’m going to start by saying, there is no right way to break down and pick a bracket. Everyone does it differently, and you should do what feels right.

This is just meant to be fun, and 3 days in your bracket will probably be shit no matter how much time you spend analyzing every Ken Pom statistic. That’s a fact. Its one that I’ve come to accept, even if I still try every year to beat the odds. So what I’ll do here is just give some initial thoughts on what I see, and what I like or don’t like. I’ll be putting out my own bracket closer to the end of the week, but I generally have most things figured out a day or so in which means this will be a pretty good reflection of where things end up going for me.

What’s original about this piece? Honestly, absolutely nothing. I try my best to produce content that other outlets won't make because that’s where my value is. People don’t come here to look for the best technical analysis or for the typical ESPN white bread article. But this is the tournament, so I’ll break from that rule because I just can’t fucking help myself. I’ll still try my best to make it more interesting than reading Joe Lunardi drone on like the emotionless puppet he is, but at the end of the day there isn’t anything all that novel going on here. Read, get some extra info, or tell me why you think I’m a dumbass. Its all good with me, but I love the tournament too much to leave any stone unturned.

 

⛏️ Initial Thoughts

 

My first thought is very simple; damn, did I fucking miss this. Watching the bracket reveal, immediately following the incredible Big 10 Final, was exactly what every college basketball fan needed. Not having the tournament last year left a hollow feeling, and its return is a great sign for starting to return to the normal world. Well, that is, unless you’re a fan of Louisville/St. Louis/Colorado State.

The first thought everyone has after the bracket is revealed is which teams made or didn’t make the bracket. That makes sense, since you can’t win if you don’t play. For the most part, I didn’t hate where things ended up. The bubble was fairly soft this year, and I can’t say that any of the above teams should feel particularly aggrieved by not making it, since none of them had a spectacular argument. St Louis and Louisville will probably bitch that they got screwed by Covid layoffs that took away games, but the reality is that you have to win when you play. I’m not sure I think MSU or Drake were good enough, but its not crazy to give the Spartans a spot with their three major wins in the last month or to give a little guy like Drake a bid after an impressive season.

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I also can’t avoid discussing my Syracuse Orange, who actually deserve to be discussed here because they managed to not only get in, but to pull a standard first-round spot. To be quite honest, I haven’t got a clue how. They beat absolutely nobody all season, and the ACC was a weak conference this year. Hell, this is a team that almost lost to fucking Bryant in November. But at the end of the day, the committee has always shown that they give preference to important programs, and Syracuse got a boost from their brand and Boeheim’s. I will not be complaining about it.

Other than that, there was nothing to jaw-dropping from this year’s bracket if we’re being honest. As always, there are arguments to be made about over and under seeding, and we could fight about the cows come home about whether the committee got it right. I tend to say yes, though there were a couple of absolutely jaw dropping choices like Loyola at an 8 seed and Clemson at the 7. But the top seeds were on point, and to win this thing you have to make it past 5/6/7 good teams to lift a trophy. Bitching about getting a 5 seed in stead of a 4 is just a good way to make sure you don’t last very long.

 

⛏️ West

I thought about breaking this down with special sections like biggest first round upset or which team has the best path, but I decided it would be better just to ramble and weave my way through these the way my brain does on its own. I think the biggest mistake people make when picking brackets is looking for upsets, as if you’re out hunting for truffles and you know that they’re buried somewhere if you just dig hard enough. Analyze at the games one at a time, and don’t worry about getting enough unexpected choices or setting up future matchups. No matter how hard we want to talk about potential Final Four matchups, you cant skip ahead four games to get the result you want.

Moving on, my first thought from the West was “wow, Gonzaga got a GIFT.” I’m a pretty big believer that small conference teams who are built up to be one of the best in the country are a bad bet. Sure, Gonzaga had some good wins early in the year, but they haven’t played a real team (no, BYU doesn’t count) in a while and haven’t had to grind through and improve against a tough conference schedule. But their path forward is extremely generous. Their second round match would be against either Oklahoma or Missouri, both of whom have fallen hard over the last month, and then they likely face either Creighton, who is inconsistent at best, or a UVA team who is currently fighting Covid issues. As the top overall seed they earned the right to get the easiest matchups, but this was generous even for that standard.

This region has the potential to be an absolute bloodbath in first round games as well. UCSB is extremely solid, and you’re going to see a lot of people pick them to pull of the upset in the first round. Ohio might actually have a solid chance as well, especially against a UVA program who wins by stifling other teams offensive. If Jason Preston gets hot, they could give the Cavaliers a scare similar to what UMBC did not too long ago. Or UVA could just suffocate them like they did every team last tournament.

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Another big story line for the tournament as a whole, that’s going to be at the forefront here, is how good/bad the Pac 12 is. I don’t think anyone has a fucking clue, and USC and Oregon are two of their three best teams on paper. VCU will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, and Wichita State or Drake could be a problem for a USC team that probably got in over ranked. As somebody who tends to think that the “Conference of Champions,” to quote the stooge known as Bill Walton, is not really competitive with the other big conferences, I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw at least one of them fall right away.

Who’s my front runner? Well, despite the easy run, I actually think its Iowa. I’ll say that with the disclaimer that this team is liable to fall on its face as early as the second round. But if they play up to their full skill like they were in December or January, they have the horses to win this whole thing. I would not be surprised at all to see them make the Final Four.

 

⛏️ South

For some reason, the South seemed to be the most boring region to me. A bunch of matchups early on, even for the close seeds, that didn’t excite me at all. UNC-Wisconsin doesn’t set up to be the battle it would have been in past years, and Florida-VT is a game between two teams that made it comfortably but have done absolutely nothing notable all season.

The best part of this region by far is the third quadrant, where you have a couple of interesting matchups. Colgate didn’t play anyone, and only managed to fit in 15 games all season, but they are a solid team capable of scaring a Razorbacks program that has over performed on the year. The game should be a fucking blast too, because these teams will try their best to put up an NBA total with their pace. Texas Tech and Utah State is also a great game, dominated by a big name on both sides. Mac McClung is obviously a stud for the Raiders, but Neemias Queta is going to cause issues for them near the rim for the Aggies, who rebound the ball extremely well. Don’t be surprised if both of these games are close near the end.

The big upset pick you’re going to see everyone and their brother take is Winthrop, and honestly I want to hate it. But I can’t. The Wildcats are just not the same team that won the Big East without Collin Gillespie, and Winthrop can put the ball in the basket. Nova is still the favorite and should be with the top talent Jay Wright can recruit, but this feels like a very solid chance for an upset in my eyes.

On the back of that, a team to watch out for might by Purdue in this region. Baylor is still an amazing team, but they haven’t looked the same since coming off their Covid break. The Boilermakers lost more than a couple games, but in a loaded Big 10 that isn’t surprising. A matchup in the elite 8 with Ohio State wouldn’t scare them either, because they’ve already taken down the Buckeyes twice this year.

Overall though, just not a ton to talk about here.

 

⛏️ Midwest

The committee might have been smoking some crack when they built this region. Honestly, I’m not at all sure that they didn’t mix up the teams by accident and send them in wrong. Loyola is not an 8 seed. They look every bit as competitive as their Top 25 ranking suggests, and you can’t say their conference is weak if you also gave Drake an at large bid. The committee then proceeded to fuck them again by matching them with GT at the 9 seed, who are probably the lowest ever ACC tournament winner ever in terms of seeding (I don’t have the energy to go verify that statement, you can do it yourself). Oh, and to top it off, Clemson is a 7 seed? Sure they had some solid early season success by beating Alabama and Purdue that shouldn’t just be overlooked, but nobody who has watched this team in the last month has been impressed. They lost to a Virginia team who barely scores by THIRTY-FIVE FUCKING POINTS. Doesn’t make a lick of damn sense. Add in the over seeding of Syracuse and WV, and you can understand my level of confusion here.

My biggest takeaway from this bracket is “good fucking luck.” I count 9 teams that I think have a legitimate shot of winning this, from Illinois all the way down to Syracuse (more on that later). Illinois is obviously the bell of the ball, but Houston is capable of playing with anyone, WV is brutal to handle in the paint, and OK State has a guy named Cade Cunningham. If you’re looking for a place to see some absolute chaos, this would be the region to focus in on. I’m glad they have some Friday games to start everything off right.

Upset-wise, there are some interesting battles that are worth mentioning. I’ll start with my obligatory Syracuse 2-3 zone comment, because they absolutely cause issues for teams like SDSU who haven’t seen anything like it all year. That said, I don’t think the Aztecs will fall because their defense is strong and they’ll be able to handle an Orange offense that won’t put up much fight on the boards. Morehead State is another sexy pick that people will be high on, but I don’t see it here. This is a team that people were eying before the bracket as an upset dselection and you’ll see a lot of people lean into that regardless of the matchup. But WVU probably has too much talent for them to handle, especially on the boards and down low.

A sneaky team to watch out for is Rutgers. I’ve already mentioned that Clemson is over seeded, and while Houston is capable of incredible performances (see their beat down of Cincinnati in the CUSA title game), they are also capable of absolute meltdowns (see losing to ECU). The Knights struggled late in the year but they were up near the top ten early in the season, and the brutal Big 10 slate took a toll on them. Facing a few opponents from outside the Midwest, though might be a pleasant change for them. Their biggest failure is their lack of deep shooting, but if they can produce consistently from two as they have all year and get just a little bit hot from deep, they could make waves.

Who’s the horse to bet on? Illinoi has to be, if we’re being honest. They won all year in a Big 10 conference that was the best in the country, and walked away with the title on Sunday. Dosonmu is obviously a stud, but they have talent all over the court and its going to take a massive effort to slow them down. As I said, don’t count on anything in the Midwest, but they’re the best bet you can get.

 

⛏️ East

 

I was still busy celebrating Syracuse making the tournament when this region dropped but I’ve since gathered myself to get a grip on where things stand. So much in this region will depend Isaiah Liver’s health. Losing his production would obviously hurt Michigan, but the entire flow of their team would be disrupted without him and that makes a huge difference. Lookout for news on that in the coming days to get a better idea of how far this Wolverines team can go.

We also have to talk about Alabama, who is also one of the most exciting teams in the country and should add some big flair to this region and create issues for anyone they face. I, for one, am looking forward to them humiliating Rick Pitino in the first round and then going from there. This region also has a couple of wild card teams in Colorado and LSU, both of whom made their conference championships, that could do damage if they play on top of their game.

The big threat I see here is Texas, who won the Big 12 with a few impressive wins and are maybe the most talented team in the East. The matchup with Alabama, which I fully expect to happen, sets up to be one of the best in the tournament and is one to look forward too. If it doesn’t, it would honestly just be a loss for all college basketball fans. So it probably wont, because this is March.

Want a good upset to brag to your friends about if it hits. Florida State has serious issue with ball control, and turn it over at a very problematic clip. Look no further than the ACC championship, where they gave up the ball 23 fucking time times. UNC Greensborough doesn’t score well, but if they can create points off those turnovers they could give the ‘Noles a scare. Also look out for MSU to either come out on fire or to absolutely torpedo into the bottom of the ocean in the opening matchup. As they’ve showed over the last month, they have the talent to beat anybody in the country. At the same time, as they showed in their one pathetic Big 10 Championship game against Maryland, they are also just as likely to fall apart at the seams. Your guess is as good as mine on which happens.

 

⛏️ Final Thoughts

Well, this is it. The real deal. Right now kicks off one of the best few weeks in sports all year, and I will do my best to be on top of everything. I hope to have a bracket out soon, daily wagers I like, and as much other content as I can possibly stuff in before Dimers finally tells me to just fuck off.

What did I give you here? Kind of nothing, actually, which is exactly what I wanted. Before I make a bracket, I like to take some time to just generally think about patterns and what seems interesting, but I tried hard not to make any definitive statements or bold claims here. As I’ve said, everyone should pick their brackets themselves and I will be the first to tell you that mine almost certainly will be a mess. So this really is just some jumping off points to get you thinking and to feel things out for yourself. I think I have some good knowledge and a solid understanding of the game, but if you read this and thought “this is all a load of crap” I wont be offended.

Just remember, don’t take this shit too seriously. Make a bracket, watch it succeed until it falls apart (which it will), and then just go on with your life betting and enjoying the games. First and foremost, making brackets is just fucking fun and if you don’t go in with that attitude you’re going to be disappointed. Want something to get worked up over? Go look for individual bets to make. There is a disgusting amount of options for gambling like a degenrate, and you should take advantage of that opportunity while you can. I’ll be there with you every step of the way on that front, and hopefully we can make some money together the next couple of weeks.

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