Premier League Soccer: Three Value Picks for Burnley vs. Liverpool

Liverpool travels to Turf Moor on Sunday morning with a perfect record and a place atop the Premier League table. They face a newly-promoted Burnley side that has shown glimpses of quality but has ultimately struggled to find its footing in the top flight. With Liverpool's potent attack and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities, the "correct score" market presents some compelling opportunities for bettors. Based on the attached pre-game probabilities grid and a deeper dive into the teams' form, here are three of the best bets to consider for this match.

Liverpool 2-0: Solid Odds for a Likely Outcome

The most probable correct score on the grid is a 2-0 victory for Liverpool, with a 12% probability. This is reflected in the attractive odds of +650. This scoreline makes a lot of sense when you consider the match-up. While Liverpool's defense has been a bit leaky this season, their clean sheet against Arsenal before the international break suggests they are starting to find their rhythm. Burnley, on the other hand, has struggled to create chances against top-tier opposition, and a sturdy defense led by Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk should be able to keep them at bay.

The 2-0 scoreline also aligns with Liverpool's recent head-to-head record against Burnley at Turf Moor, where they have won to nil in their last three visits. It's a pragmatic and realistic outcome that offers a strong payout for a relatively high probability.

Liverpool 3-0: The Value Bet

With a 10% probability on the predictions grid, a 3-0 Liverpool victory is the next most likely outcome and comes with even better odds at +900. This is the definition of a value bet: a strong probability for a high payout. Liverpool's attack has been red-hot, scoring eight goals in just three games. Even with their defense occasionally faltering, their offense has consistently delivered.

Burnley's defense, while impressive in the Championship last season, has conceded six goals in their first three EPL matches. Against a team with the firepower of Liverpool, it's easy to see them being overwhelmed.

A 3-0 result reflects both Liverpool's attacking prowess and the likelihood of them keeping a clean sheet against a less-than-intimidating Burnley attack.

Liverpool 4-0: The Longshot with Legitimacy

For those looking for a bigger reward, a 4-0 Liverpool win at +1500 odds is a tempting proposition. The predictions model gives this a 6% probability, which is remarkably high for a scoreline with such long odds. This bet hinges on Liverpool's attack truly firing on all cylinders and Burnley's defense completely collapsing.

While it's a longshot, it's a perfectly plausible scenario. Liverpool has scored four goals once this season, and the recent acquisition of Alexander Isak adds even more attacking depth. If Liverpool gets an early goal and Burnley is forced to come out of its low block, the game could open up, leading to a rout. Considering the high-payout potential and a surprisingly strong probability, the 4-0 correct score is a great bet to sprinkle a little money on.

Summary of the Bets: Burnley vs. Liverpool

Given the generous odds on offer, small bets on all three outcomes is the recommendation.

• Liverpool 2-0 (+650): The most probable outcome, offering a great return for a relatively high probability bet.
• Liverpool 3-0 (+900): The ideal value bet, combining a high probability with excellent odds.
• Liverpool 4-0 (+1500): The perfect longshot, offering a massive payout for a very plausible scenario.

The numbers don't lie. Liverpool is the clear favorite, and the correct score market provides multiple opportunities to capitalize on their expected victory. As always, bet responsibly, but for this match, siding with a dominant Liverpool performance is a smart move.