Post-Bet Analysis with Prospector Sam

Well folks, gambling articles are done for the foreseeable future on my end because I simply don’t have the time to write articles “day of.” However, fear not, because I have no plans to abandon my loyal hoard of Gold Diggers (and, to be honest, the people who actually take the time to read my work are certainly the cream of the crop). So, like last summer, it’s time to get back to what I actually do best and get into some more creative pieces (shocking for most of you, but Dimers actually brought me on after reading an article about Chris Christie that didn’t have a single wager in it).

For our first topic, I want to take a bit of time to address an important issue in gambling; post-bet analysis. This certainly won’t be an exhaustive article about all of the issues to think about, nor am I the be all end all expert on this (or any gambling topic, for that matter), but thinking about results after the fact from a tactical standpoint, not just from whether it won or lost, is an important way to learn and get better.

Regardless of the outcome, I try to look at my bets after they finish and figure out where things went wrong or right. On the best days, I can pat myself on the back and say “you’re a fucking genius Sam,” while on others I read a write up and sink my head into my hands with shame realizing how wrong I was. It’s all part of the process, but learning is an endless part of being a good gambler and you should never pass up an opportunity to add some more information.

Rather than writing out some droning treatise, I figure it’s probably better for everyone if I break this down into some bite sized chunks, which is what I plan to do here (as I call it, make it Buzzfeed approved). So, without further ado, here are some important items to think about after your bets have finished.

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Were You Right?

Yes, I know that I said this article was about going beyond the results, but this is a results-based business and the bottom line is what matters. We all have bets that should have lost where we end up winning and bets that should have hit where we got screwed. This is gambling, and luck is still a part of the formula. So, while getting better is crucial, never forget the part that really matters here (which is making money) and always put that at the top of your list. I’m sorry for misleading you, but it’s really your fault for trusting me.

How Close Was Your Bet?

This is where the thinking really begins. It may sound obvious, but you always need to assess how close your bet was, win or lose. If you won by a mile you may be able to simply congratulate yourself, and if you lost by a mile you may be better off just walking away and simply calling it a bad misread. When things end closer, though, it’s not so simple. You should figure out what factors flipped the outcome one way or another, and why you ended up on the right or wrong side.

The odds are also important too. If the outcome was close on a +300 bet then you probably found value either way, but if the outcome was close on a -300 bet you likely didn't. There’s no hard science here and some games may teach you more than others, but thinking about those close outcomes and how you can end up on the right side if them (or even avoiding those bets) is crucial to winning the next one.

Did the Bet Track with Your Reasoning?

This is something I’m sure you all think about anyway, but probably the most important thing on our list. When you make a bet, you should have an idea of how you see a game playing out, and that roadmap is the reason you feel confident in putting your money down on whatever your wager is. Win or lose, when things don’t go according to that plan you have to take it into account. To be clear, you’ll never be able to get every game spot on (unless you’re a wizard, that must be why all the people in Harry Potter are so rich). But the games that don’t go as expected are the ones you need to think long and hard about (not a sex joke, get your head out of the gutter). Once you understand why you made mistakes and what assumptions are wrong, you can tweak them moving forward to avoid doing the same thing again. Kind of like getting better at sex.

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Did the Result Reflect the Game?

This is where things start to get tricky. To be perfectly honest, not every game teaches you a lesson. Sometimes a team dominates but still loses, or bounces just go one way. It’s part of gambling, and there are days when the analysis of your game needs to take into account that the outcome doesn’t necessarily reflect what happened.

To be clear, this is not an invitation to make excuses for yourself, because every game has moments that could have gone differently to help you win. I could sit around and explain every loss that way. But while it doesn’t happen every time, there are times where I recognize  that the analysis was right, but the result was wonky (or I was way off but got lucky as hell to win). Try not to use this too much, but it’s important to take into account when it happens

What Did You Miss?

There isn’t a single game where you don’t “miss” something. If you think otherwise, you’re fooling yourself. And, to be clear, miss doesnt mean completely fuck up. It just means you didn’t take into account something that could have helped you make a better decision. Some bets it’s “I completely misjudged the tactics and it led me to go completely wrong” and others its “I nailed this pick but I didnt quite expect this player/strategy to be the reason.” Whatever it is, think about what you looked at before the game that didnt line up with what happened, and try to work out why.

How Does This Change the Next Bet (If at All)?

And here we come to the ultimate questions; What the hell do we do with our new information? To be honest, one game or result shouldnt completely revolutionize or revamp your whole betting strategy. This is a long term process (sorry to those looking to get rich quick) and you will mostly be taking a nugget or two away, if anything, from each bet. But take the time to distill what you learned and come up with one or two things that might be helpful next time. I often write them down, but keeping an idea of what could be improved will tell you a lot. You’ll start to see patterns over time and know that there are certain problems you need to keep at the front of your head as you look through the board. Doing that, just like all of the best gamblers I know, will help you improve your craft and win more money.

To paraphrase a wise quote from Denzel Washington; Practice doesn’t make perfect, it makes improvement.