Steelers vs. Patriots prediction: Pittsburgh favored to win in NFL Week 3, 2025

The New England Patriots will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 3 action at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Steelers as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Steelers-Patriots game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Steelers with a win probability of 57%, while the Patriots have 43%."

This gameday Steelers vs. Patriots betting preview builds on my Steelers vs. Patriots prediction that was published earlier in the week.

For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Steelers vs. Patriots predictions page.

Steelers vs. Patriots Predictions

Since our Steelers-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Steelers and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Steelers a 57% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 22-20.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Steelers and Patriots each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 56% chance of staying under.

Steelers vs. Patriots odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Steelers	Patriots
Spread	-1.5 (-105)	+1.5 (-114)
Moneyline	-112	+100
Total	o44.5 (-104)	u44.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Steelers vs. Patriots picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Steelers vs. Patriots matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Steelers vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Steelers vs. Patriots?

According to our model, Pittsburgh's Jaylen Warren is most likely to score the first TD in Steelers vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Warren a 10.1% chance of getting in for six first at Gillette Stadium, while the Steelers running back is a 41.0% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	First TD Probability
Jaylen Warren (RB)	10.1%
DK Metcalf (WR)	9.1%
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	7.2%

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	8.4%
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	6.5%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	5.8%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jaylen Warren (RB)	41.0%
DK Metcalf (WR)	37.9%
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	31.6%

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	35.5%
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	28.8%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	26.0%

Steelers vs Patriots player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Steelers and Patriots. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Steelers-Patriots page now to access every player prop projection.

Steelers vs. Patriots quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is projected to throw for more yards than the Patriots' Drake Maye.

Steelers rushing

Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson are projected to be the leading rushers for the Steelers.

Player	Position
Jaylen Warren	RB
Kenneth Gainwell	RB
Kaleb Johnson	RB

Patriots rushing

Rhamondre Stevenson, Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson are expected to lead the Patriots in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB
Drake Maye	QB
TreVeyon Henderson	RB

Steelers receiving

DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth and Jaylen Warren are projected to top the receiving yards for the Steelers.

Player	Position
DK Metcalf	WR
Calvin Austin	WR
Jonnu Smith	TE
Pat Freiermuth	TE
Jaylen Warren	RB

Patriots receiving

Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas and TreVeyon Henderson are projected to lead the Patriots in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Stefon Diggs	WR
Kayshon Boutte	WR
Hunter Henry	TE
DeMario Douglas	WR
TreVeyon Henderson	RB

Steelers vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 3 action between the Patriots and Steelers at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Sunday's Steelers vs. Patriots matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Steelers vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Steelers, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 3 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Steelers vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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