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Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Game 1 [2025 WNBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Minnesota Lynx will take on the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Target Center on Sunday, starting at 5:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of Game 1.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Mercury-Lynx game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Lynx with a win probability of 70%, while the Mercury have 30%."
The Lynx, who have the likes of Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas.
For a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Mercury vs. Lynx predictions page.
Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Lynx 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lynx a 70% chance of defeating the Mercury in Game 1 of the series.
According to our model, the Mercury (+8.5) have a 62% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 158.5 points has a 59% chance of going over.
Mercury vs. Lynx Game 1 odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Lynx |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +310 | -350 |
| Total | o158.5 (-115) | u158.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Mercury vs. Lynx picks and best bets for Game 1
Our model's biggest edge in today's Mercury vs. Lynx matchup is on the total.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Mercury vs. Lynx Game 1 player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Mercury vs. Lynx game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Satou Sabally is expected to lead the Mercury in scoring, while Napheesa Collier is projected to be the top scorer for the Lynx.
Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.
Mercury vs. Lynx Game 1 updates and essential details
Sunday's Game 1 between the Lynx and Mercury at Target Center is scheduled to commence at 5:00PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
- Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Dimers' full preview of Sunday's Mercury vs. Lynx matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Mercury vs. Lynx picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mercury vs. Lynx insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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