Answering the 5 Questions That Could Decide the Dolphins-Bills TNF Showdown

Week 3 of the NFL season brings a high-stakes AFC East showdown under the lights of Thursday Night Football at Highmark Stadium, Buffalo. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are both packed with talent, and the data points to five key questions that will determine who controls the contest.

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1. Who wins the quarterback battle?

This game is a tale of two quarterbacks with vastly different playing styles, and the numbers reflect that. Josh Allen is a dual-threat force with a whopping 54.2% probability of scoring a touchdown at any time. In stark contrast, Tua Tagovailoa's ATD is just 5.5%, showcasing his role as a pure pocket passer. The question is whether Allen's ability to create on his own will prove too much for the Dolphins' defense, or if Tua's precision passing will be enough to win a shootout.

2. Which team's running back will dominate the ground game?

The Bills and Dolphins each have an explosive running back, and their predicted production will be a key factor. James Cook is projected to have 72.1 rushing yards and a higher chance of scoring the first touchdown at 13.6%, while De'Von Achane has a 10.7% First Touchdown probability with 58.6 rushing yards. The data suggests a fierce battle on the ground, but with Cook leading in both projected yardage and scoring probability, he appears to be the more dominant threat.

3. Can the Dolphins' receiving duo still carry the team?

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are one of the most explosive receiver tandems in the league, but the data shows one of them is far more of a threat than the other. Tyreek Hill is projected to lead the Dolphins team with 70.3 receiving yards and a 6.5% FTD probability, nearly 2% higher than Jaylen Waddle’s 4.6%. The question isn't just whether they can both be effective, but if Waddle's production can reach a level that takes some of the pressure off of Hill.

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4. Who steps up as Josh Allen’s new go-to receiver?

With Stefon Diggs no longer with the Bills, the data indicates that no single player has fully taken over his role as the top target. Both Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman are projected for similar receiving yardage, with Shakir at 46.9 yards and Coleman at 48.6 yards. This shared workload raises a key question for the Bills: which of these talented receivers will ultimately emerge as Josh Allen's most trusted option in high-pressure situations?

5. How will Josh Allen's rushing impact the game?

While both quarterbacks will be throwing the ball, Allen’s legs are a factor that Tua’s are not. Allen is projected for 31.8 rushing yards, a number that dwarfs Tua's minimal 5.6 yards. This significant difference directly contributes to Allen's sky-high touchdown probabilities and gives the Bills a massive offensive advantage. The Dolphins’ defense must not only worry about Allen’s arm but also his proven ability to scramble for a first down or power his way into the end zone, adding a crucial layer to their game plan.