NFL Week 13 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday, December 4, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 33-14-2 since the start of the season and we're on the hunt for more Sunday winners in Week 13. Last week was our first losing week of the season, but that only leaves us hungrier for more covers. And we're liking what we're seeing on the board here, so let's win some money together! 

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NFL Week 13 Best Bets and Picks 

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings - 1:00PM ET

This season, the Jets are 6-0 against the spread when facing teams that allow a completion percentage of 61.0% or higher. New York has won those games by an average of 12.5 points per game, which shows you that the Jets are capable of beating teams with mediocre passing defenses. Don't mistake that fact for us saying that Mike White will throw for 308 yards and three touchdowns again, but we do think New York will be able to move the ball through the air.

We also think the Jets will be able to slow down the Vikings offense. New York's defense is ranked fourth in the league in DVOA this season and it's especially strong along the defensive line. So, the Jets should be able to keep Dalvin Cook in check, which would make it a lot easier to slow down the Vikings offense as a whole. 

It also doesn't hurt that New York has Sauce Gardner to throw on Justin Jefferson. Nobody can really shut the Minnesota star down, but Gardner can at least make him work. And that should have the Jets in this game until the very end. 

PICK: Jets +3 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons - 1:00PM ET

The Steelers might be without Najee Harris (abdomen injury) this week, but they're expected to get Jaylen Warren back. Warren isn't quite as proven as Harris, but he is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season. Harris is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. With that said, Pittsburgh's rushing game might not suffer all that much if Harris misses time. And quarter Kenny Pickett can also do some damage against the Falcons with his legs. 

The real reason to take Pittsburgh in this game is the defense, though. This Steelers team hasn't been quite as good as usual on that side of the ball this season, but it should be able to come up with a solid performance against a Falcons offense that lacks a passing game. Atlanta is going to be relying heavily on the rushing attack, but Mike Tomlin and his defensive staff should have a plan to stop that. 

The Steelers also have to be feeling like this is a must-win game at this point. They are still hoping to make the postseason and they can't let games like this one get away, even if it is on the road. The Steelers are actually 19-10 ATS as road underdogs of 3 or less points under Tomlin. They're also 11-3 ATS against NFC South opponents in that time. 

PICK: Steelers +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders - 4:25PM ET

The Chargers have covered in three of their last four games, but we're expecting them to struggle against a Raiders team that has now won and covered in back-to-back games. Both of those Las Vegas victories also happened to come on the road, but the team will now be playing in front of a fired-up crowd that is hoping to see the Raiders to get back in the playoff picture with a win. 

This matchup is just one that is really good for Josh McDaniels' squad. Only four teams in the NFL have allowed more yards per game on the ground than the Chargers, and that's not exactly a good thing with a meeting with Josh Jacobs on deck. Last week, Jacobs rushed for 229 yards with two touchdowns in a win over the Seahawks. He also added six catches for 74 yards in that game. 

We're looking for a big game out of Jacobs here, even if he is a little banged up. And if Los Angeles loads up the box to try and slow him down, Derek Carr will make the road team pay with some throws over the top to Davante Adams. 

It's just going to be imperative that the Raiders watch out for Chargers running back Austin Ekeler here. But either way, it's hard not to like Vegas in this game. 

PICK: Raiders PK (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)