NFL Week 1 First and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions [2023]

The NFL is back for another big week, and we've run 10,000 data-driven simulations of each Week 1 game to uncover which players are most likely to score a touchdown and which are the best TD bets to make.

NFL first and anytime touchdown scorer props are some of the most popular prop bets among football bettors. By using our Week 1 first touchdown scorer predictions and anytime touchdown scorer predictions, you can get an edge over other bettors.

Utilizing our advanced machine learning and data, Dimers.com has been able to identify where the best value can be found for Week 1.

This week's TD scorers are sponsored by Bet365, where new players can get $365 in bonus bets just for betting $1 on any of the below players to score in Week 1.

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This week’s NFL slate features big names such as Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison, with each of these players projected as high chances of scoring a touchdown in their respective games in Week 1.

Here, we will show you the most likely NFL touchdown scorers for Week 1, as well as the touchdown prop bets you should consider making for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

MORE: Every NFL Week 1 Game Simulated 10,000 Times

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions - NFL Week 1, 2023

After simulating the Week 1 NFL slate thousands of times, DimersBOT has determined the most likely players to score a touchdown across all of this week’s matchups.

1. Justin Jefferson (Vikings): 56.0% probability
2. Derrick Henry (Titans): 55.0% probability
3. Alexander Mattison (Vikings): 50.7% probability
4. Austin Ekeler (Chargers): 50.2% probability
5. Christian McCaffrey (49ers): 49.9% probability
6. Nick Chubb (Browns): 48.9% probability
7. Bijan Robinson (Falcons): 48.3% probability
8. Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals): 47.9% probability
9. Tony Pollard (Cowboys): 45.6% probability
10. Tyreek Hill (Dolphins): 45.4% probability

First Touchdown Predictions - NFL Week 1, 2023

As well as providing you with the players who are most likely to score an anytime touchdown, DimersBOT also has the 10 players most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games across all of the Week 1 NFL action.

1. Derrick Henry (Titans): 15.1% probability
2. Justin Jefferson (Vikings): 14.0% probability
3. Bijan Robinson (Falcons): 13.5% probability
4. Christian McCaffrey (49ers): 13.3% probability
5. Alexander Mattison (Vikings): 12.6% probability
6. Nick Chubb (Browns): 11.6% probability
7. Austin Ekeler (Chargers): 11.5% probability
8. Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 11.2% probability
9. Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals): 11.1% probability
10. Tony Pollard (Cowboys): 11.0% probability

Keep in mind that these lists only show the players most likely to score an anytime or first touchdown in NFL Week 1, which does not necessarily mean that our model recommends betting on them.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to look out for the best odds available, as well as checking out our recommended bets below.

NFL Touchdown Best Bets and Odds - Week 1, 2023

Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+2200)

• Odds: +2200 via PointsBet
• Edge: 18.0%
• Probability: 22.3%
• Game: Titans vs. Saints (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with PointsBet

Our model has identified the best NFL touchdown bet for Week 1, which is in the game between the Titans and Saints. The bet is on Juwan Johnson (NO) to score a touchdown at odds of +2200 with PointsBet, where our model has found an edge of 18.0%.

Jordan Love Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+800)

• Odds: +800 via PointsBet
• Edge: 15.1%
• Probability: 26.2%
• Game: Packers vs. Bears (4:25PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with PointsBet

The next best NFL touchdown bet for Week 1 comes in the Packers vs. Bears game, where our model has found an edge of 15.1% on Jordan Love (GB) at odds of +800 with PointsBet to score an anytime touchdown.

Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+500)

• Odds: +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Edge: 14.7%
• Probability: 31.4%
• Game: Titans vs. Saints (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with DraftKings Sportsbook

Our NFL model has found another +EV touchdown prop for Week 1, which is in the game between the Titans and Saints. The pick is for the Saints' Rashid Shaheed to score an anytime TD at odds of +500 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

With a probability of 31.4%, bettors are gaining an edge of 14.7% on the sportsbooks with this bet.

Jamal Agnew Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+950)

• Odds: +950 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 13.6%
• Probability: 23.1%
• Game: Jaguars vs. Colts (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with FanDuel Sportsbook

The NFL Week 1 touchdown bets continue in the Jaguars vs. Colts game, where our model has found a juicy edge of 13.6% on Jamal Agnew of the Packers at odds of +950 with FanDuel Sportsbook to score anytime.

Baker Mayfield Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+900)

• Odds: +900 via PointsBet
• Edge: 13.2%
• Probability: 23.2%
• Game: Buccaneers vs. Vikings (1:00PM ET)
• Click here to place this bet with PointsBet

The fifth bet that our NFL model has found an edge on for Week 1 is Baker Mayfield to score an anytime touchdown in the Bucs vs. Vikings matchup. After simulating the game thousands of times, DimersBOT has identified a solid 13.2% edge for bettors who take the +900 odds available at PointsBet.

MORE: NFL Props for Week 1, 2023

Best NFL Touchdown Picks For Week 1

• Juwan Johnson (Saints): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+2200 at PointsBet, 18.0% edge)
• Jordan Love (Packers): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+800 at PointsBet, 15.1% edge)
• Rashid Shaheed (Saints): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+500 at DraftKings Sportsbook, 14.7% edge)
• Jamal Agnew (Jaguars): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+950 at FanDuel Sportsbook, 13.6% edge)
• Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+900 at PointsBet, 13.2% edge)

Calling all touchdown bettors! Unlock an incredible reward of $200 in bonus bets by placing a simple $5 wager on one of this week's NFL touchdown picks at DraftKings Click ➡️ here ⬅️ to get started!

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NFL Touchdown Betting Picks - Week 1, 2023

All of Dimers' NFL first and anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Week 1 have been generated thanks to thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NFL predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use this week's NFL touchdown scorer picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

More on NFL

Now you've got the 411 on this week's NFL touchdown predictions, see the best betting analysis for all NFL games on our NFL Predictions page, where you can find probabilities and odds, plus our best bets for every single NFL matchup.