NFL Sunday Night Football: Week 4 2022 And The Search For Early Positive Expected Value

We're breaking down exactly what makes our DimersBOT super computer the ultimate sports betting tool for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, by giving you picks and betting strategies to help you get ahead and find that ever elusive thing called value. After nailing our Thursday Night Football pick, today we're looking at Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on October 2, 2022.

What is DimersBOT?

A heavyweight of the sports betting world, DimersBOT is a sophisticated gambling robot sent back through time to change to future for one lucky generation of sports bettors, us! It runs over 10,000 sports betting simulations of every major pro and college sport on the planet, including Sunday Night Football in Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, and continually updates based on everything from weather, to question marks over a player's availability.

Check out what we nailed on Thursday Night Football below.

RELATED: NFL Thursday Night Football: Week 4 2022 And The Search For Early Positive Expected Value

NFL Week 4 Betting Strategy: Finding Expected Value

Positive Expected Value (+EV) wagering is absolutely fundamental to becoming a successful sports bettor and is something that most recreational bettors, also known as '"the public", don’t fully understand. DimersBOT, on the other hand, is a sophisticated gambling robot that does the research for you, listing all its +EV bets on the Quick Picks and Prop Bets pages free of charge.

Appreciating the importance of +EV, DimersBOT evaluates the lines and probabilities set by the oddsmakers (or, by extension, the sportsbooks) the second they are available, to assess whether a bet is value (+EV) or not (-EV).

The most successful NFL bettors make it their priority to identify this expected value, or +EV, as early in the week as possible. Because, by the time Sunday rolls around, the sportsbooks have almost always adjusted their lines based on the volume of bets coming for either side. In really efficient markets like the NFL, positive EV bets, aka "value bets", are usually only available for a few hours, before those bettors known as the "sharps" snap them up and move the line.

However, that won't stop us helping the common man.

Below, we breakdown the three most popular bet types to see if we can't unearth a gem worth betting in We're breaking down exactly what makes our DimersBOT super computer the ultimate sports betting tool for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, by giving you picks and betting strategies to help you get ahead and find that ever elusive thing called value.

Today we're looking at Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on October 2, 2022.

Chiefs vs. Bucs Predictions

• Final Score: Chiefs 22 - 23 Bucs
• Moneyline Prediction: Bucs
• Points Spread Prediction: Bucs +0.5
• Over/Under Points Total: Under 47

The Difference Between Predictions and Suggested Bets

A prediction is, well, exactly that - a prediction. DimersBOT can help us predict what will happen in thousands of different sports and events each and every year, but that doesn't mean we should necessarily bet them. While DimersBOT is predicting the Buccaneers to not only win this game, it's also suggesting we bet them at moneyline odds of -105 at DraftKings, too, as their "true odds" to win should actually be closer to -108. Only a small edge, but an edge all the same.

A suggested bet is where we have matched DimersBOT's predictions vs. the sportsbooks odds and identified an edge, or +EV, like the one on the Bucs moneyline above. The bigger the edge, the better. Tread carefully, though, as edges - or positive expected value - are usually more prevalent on the underdog, as the oddsmakers are happier to take them on, rather than take on the favorite. An edge on a favorite like the Bucs is even better!

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Moneyline

After 10,000 simulations of this Sunday Night Football clash, DimersBOT has determined that the final score will be Chiefs 22 to the Buccaneers 23. The super computer is big on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win their NFL Week 4 matchup against the 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs, and DraftKings is letting us get on at -105.

Based on all available information, including DimersBOTs predictions, getting moneyline odds of -107 or better on the Bucs in this game has a +EV and should be bet and with -105 available, we are up for the challenge.

To bet the Chiefs with positive expected value, you'd need moneyline odds of +108 or better, not the current -102 on offer. If we're staying true to the principles of +EV then we're not betting the Chiefs until we can get at least +108 somewhere. This is one of the many reasons why we all need multiple online sportsbook accounts. "Line-shopping" is very, very important in our search for positive expected value.

Suggested Bet: Bucs to win on the Moneyline -105 with DraftKings.

When you consider they should be odds of -108, guess what you have? Yep, POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE...

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Points Spread

In terms of the Points Spread, DimersBOT has the Bucs winning by 1 point, so with the consensus line having the Chiefs as the -0.5 point favorite it means there is a big edge on the Bucs with half-a-point, giving us positive EV, or Expected Value, to warrant a bet on them to cover.

PointsBet Sportsbook is giving Bucs +0.5 points with odds of -107 so a great way to play this is by using one of the 4 risk-free bets (up to $200) new users will get at PointsBet.

Suggested Bet: Bucs to cover the spread +0.5 points at -107 with PointsBet.

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Over/Under

When you consider DimersBOT's predicted final score is 22 - 23, and the fact there is +EV available on the Bucs at both the moneyline and the spread, we don't need to attack the Points Total of 45.5. Even though DimersBOT thinks it will finish half a point under that line, with the best odds available being -104, we'd want closer to +100 to be the Under.

Suggested Bet: NO BET at odds of less than +100 or a line 45.5 points and lower.

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