NFL Predictions Reveal Five Teams to Back in the Make or Miss Playoffs Market

As NFL training camps progress and the preseason kicks off with the Chargers vs. Lions Hall of Fame Game, it’s the perfect time to evaluate which teams are trending toward postseason contention—and which are facing an uphill battle. After all, these teams are being evaluated all camp long by their own coaching and front office staff so it seems right we do our own.

By blending advanced simulations form our supremely talented Dimers data scientists, with real-time sportsbook odds from DraftKings and current headlines from across the league, we’ve identified the teams most likely to make or miss the playoffs, along with the best betting values where sportsbooks diverge from fair projections.

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The Five Teams Most Likely to Make the Playoffs

Baltimore Ravens – 89.2%

The Ravens are stacked, stable and return all but four starters from last season. After a dominant 2024 campaign, led by MVP-caliber Lamar Jackson, they're running it back with one of the deepest rosters in the league, adding veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins to the mix, along with Zay Flowers  making waves in camp, and the defense looks as potent as ever. That would be the reason they're our most likely team to make the postseason *and* our Super Bowl LX favorite at 15.1%.

Buffalo Bills – 89.1%

Despite offseason chatter about regression, Buffalo remains elite and enters this season with a re-tooled defense featuring former Chargers EDGE rusher Joey Bosa. Josh Allen is healthy and fresh off an MVP season and offseason wedding and boast one of the best rushing attacks in football and have brought back that whole unit. The passcatchers leave a bit to be desired, but that alone won't keep Buffalo from making the postseason as our runaway favorite to win the AFC East at 74.6%.

Kansas City Chiefs – 79.7%

The defending AFC champs remain the standard of an NFL franchise when it comes to results with Patrick Mahomes at the helm even after a season many believe was one of the luckiest ever and a Super Bowl effort to match. With Rashee Rice’s suspension looming and questions at WR beyond last year's speedy rookie Xavier Worthy, this team may not return to the dominant force of recent years, but the Chiefs' consistency under Andy Reid keeps them atop the AFC West pecking order, though it may be the closest its been in years with the Chargers on the rise and trailing the Chiefs' 49.7% AFC West win probability. 

NFL IN BRAZIL: Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 1 Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles – 78.3%

Jalen Hurts leads an Eagles team that hopes to be even better than they were when they won Super Bowl LIX, manhandling the aforementioned Chiefs. Can they achieve that with the likes of Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and more gone? With Saquon Barkley fresh off an OPOY season and a brand-new deal, Philly will lean on their offense as they appear postseason-bound again. Our model projects them with a 58.7% probability of winning the NFC East en route to their eighth playoff appearances in nine years and fifth straight.

San Francisco 49ers – 74.9%

Kyle Shanahan’s squad returns with a new look after more than 15 players were turned over via offseason transactions, which they hope will provide a jumpstart to a team that was a shell of itself last season en route to a 6-11 record. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey should enter the season fully healthy, though their WR corps is on the mend as Brandon Aiyuk recovers from last season's ACL & MCL tears and Jauan Jennings deals with a recurring  calf issue. Still, the 49ers haven't missed back-to-back postseasons since 2017-2018 and they open as our NFC West favorite at 46.4%.

Is a bounce-back season in the cards for Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers?

The Five Teams Most Likely to Miss the Playoffs

Cleveland Browns - 94.9%

Stop if you've heard this one before: the Browns face an uphill climb this season. Cleveland is pivoting back to the offense Kevin Stefanski ran during his early years as head coach—one built around the run game and system familiarity. But with major question marks across the roster, particularly at Quarterback, it's fair to wonder if that shift will be enough. The Browns added four quarterbacks this offseason in hopes of finding a stopgap, but none offer proven upside. Cleveland desperately needs someone to emerge opposite Jerry Jeudy, who is coming off a career year.

New York Giants - 94.7%

QB concerns will be a common theme among these teams. The Giants are putting their faith in Russell Wilson after largely failed experiments in Denver and Pittsburgh to elevate an offense that ranked 31st in scoring last season. He's the only new starter, but the hope is his experience will stabilize the unit and prevent another disastrous start. First-round pick Jaxson Dart will stay on the bench—for now—but the leash on Wilson may be short. With pressure mounting on Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen, a slow start could force a switch under center - or holding the clipboard on the sidelines - before long.

Tennessee Titans - 90.7%
With Will Levis out for the season, rookie Cameron Ward is being thrust into the starting role, ready or not. Head coach Brian Callahan is tailoring the offense to Ward’s strengths, adding Calvin Ridley an Tyler Lockett to one of the league's poorest receiving corps. Ward was a stud in college but the learning curve will be steep. The Titans’ season now hinges on how quickly he can adapt to the NFL.

New York Jets - 89.1%
The Jets push the reset button once again after yet another year falling short—this time with Justin Fields, rookie offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and first-time head coach Aaron Glenn. The plan is to lean on the run game with Breece Hall and a rebuilt offensive line, while hoping Fields can revive his career and bring some spark. There’s optimism around Glenn’s energy and leadership after coming over a from a Lions team bursting with "that dog in them", but the questions remain the same: Is Fields the answer? And can the Jets finally stop recycling the same broken formula?

New Orleans Saints - 87.3%
The Saints haven’t reached the playoffs since Drew Brees retired, and now they'll try to end that drought with the NFL’s youngest head coach and a first-year starting quarterback (in the NFL, anyway). With Derek Carr retiring in May, the battle between rookie but seven-year college vet Tyler Shough and second-year pro Spencer Rattler doesn't fill you with the fire of your usual camp battle. Moore is installing a brand-new system alongside new coordinators on both sides of the ball, making for a complete overhaul. It’s a fresh start in New Orleans—but the end result looks like more of the same. 

Five Value Bets to Make or Miss the Playoffs

Based on the discrepancy between DraftKings' sportsbook odds and the fair odds derived from simulation data, here are five of the most mispriced teams worth a look.

We’ve limited this to bets with odds between -250 and +250 for practical betting value.

Miami Dolphins (+220 to Make Playoffs)

This is arguably the best value on the board, regardless of how you feel about the Dolphins prospects. While sportsbooks are pessimistic, the model gives them a solid 42% chance - that's well off the 31.2% probability implied by the odds. With their entire secondary gone, the Dolphins could find themselves in plenty of shootouts. 

Washington Commanders (+130 to Miss Playoffs)

Despite being a near coin-flip by the numbers, the market is treating them like favorites. That's understandable - rookie Jayden Daniels and new Head Coach Dan Quinn led this team to an incredible season and an NFC Championship appearance. However, the sophomore slump could be real, and it's been *33 years* since they made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons f you're fading the Commanders, this is a prime spot. If the Cowboys overperform at all, Washington could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Minnesota Vikings (-110 to Miss Playoffs)

In a post-Kirk Cousins world, with Sam Darnold under center and J.J. McCarthy waiting, this team faces major volatility. Too many questions surround this team for them to have minus odds (they're -110 on both sides) to make the playoffs in a competitive division where they're the third-best team on paper. The simulations say they’re more likely to miss than the odds suggest and at near even money, this is a substantial value.

Houston Texans (-130 to Make Playoffs)

After a breakout rookie season, C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times in 2024 as Houston’s offense regressed. In response, the Texans overhauled the offensive line—trading away key starters and bringing in veterans like Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, and Laken Tomlinson—while also replacing offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik with Nick Caley. The focus in training camp will be on how quickly the new unit gels. In a crowded AFC, Houston can’t afford another stalled season if it wants to stay in the Super Bowl conversation, however even at their -130 odds, our model reveals some value as they should be closer to -175 based on their 63.7% probability.

San Francisco 49ers (-200 to Make Playoffs): The book odds still undersell just how reliable the Niners are in a weak NFC. They're not the best odds, but value is value. Their 74.9% projection implies much shorter odds than -200, though if you're willing to risk them potentially getting in via Wild Card, their +165 odds to win the NFC West are even better value at a 46.4% probability.

Dimers' Final Word

The AFC remains a gauntlet, boasting the top three teams most likely to make the postseason, but the NFC’s parity keeps the door wide open for sleeper teams to find their way into postseason play.

Training camps will reveal more about QB battles, rookies’ readiness, and injury recoveries, so be on the lookout for our latest projections once rosters are finalized before Week 1, but the early value is clear.

Use the fair odds above to guide your betting strategy and look beyond the brand names—value is found in the margins.

Dimers' 2025 NFL Season Betting Resources

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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