NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Jaguars vs. Chiefs Predictions, Saturday, January 21, 2023

After one of the most incredible comebacks in NFL postseason history, the Jacksonville Jaguars now head to Kansas City for a meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round. This matchup features head coach Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson looking to best one of his old mentors, Andy Reid. Pederson was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs in 2013. So, the coaching battle should be fascinating to watch play out. With that in mind, find out how we think this one will play out in our Jaguars vs. Chiefs betting preview. We're going to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. Let's have a fun couple of weeks, as this is one of the best parts of the year for sports bettors. 

RELATED: Predictions for every NFL Divisional Round matchup

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Predictions

• Predicted score: Chiefs 30 - Jaguars 21
• 51% probability the Chiefs cover the -8.5 points spread
• 77% chance the Chiefs win on the moneyline
• 54% shot Jaguars-Chiefs stays Under 52.5

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Jaguars vs. Chiefs data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds and Betting Lines

Will The Jaguars Cover The Spread?

This Jaguars team is a lot better than it is given credit for, and this is just a very large spread. Jacksonville did get off to a slow start against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but the Jaguars offense ended up waking up and moving the ball at will in the second half. Trevor Lawrence and Co. should be able to put together some productive drives against the Chiefs, which will make it hard for Jacksonville bettors not to cover. After all, the Jags were ninth in offensive DVOA during the regular season. 

The Jaguars also happen to have an intimidating pass rush, which really put in work on Justin Herbert last game. If Jacksonville can make Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable, this could be a much closer game than expected. 

The Chiefs are also just 0-6 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 or more points this season. And they're 2-10 ATS against AFC opponents this year. 

MORE: Check out our NFL best bets for Saturday's Divisional Round games

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You just can't rule out the possibility of a lopsided game here. While Jacksonville is ninth in the NFL in offensive DVOA, Kansas City is first and the gap between the Chiefs and the second-ranked Buffalo Bills is sizable. Patrick Mahomes and this versatile Kansas City offense is capable of scoring in bunches against anyone. But the team could take that to another level against a mediocre Jaguars defense. 

Kansas City is also a very tough place to play for a young quarterback, so Lawrence could get a little rattled in his first road playoff start. He didn't look like himself in the first half of last week's game, but he ultimately settled in. That might not be an option on the road, where the fans will be on him all night. 

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Why The Over Will Hit

These teams are both explosive offensively and mediocre defensively, which makes it very likely that this game turns into a shootout. Both franchises have quarterbacks that can make big plays happen out of nowhere, and the teams also happen to have running backs that are comfortable as receivers out of the backfield. That's a nice recipe for an Over. 

Also, if the Chiefs do end up jumping out to an early lead, the Jaguars could end up needing to throw a bit more than they'd like. That will also help the case for Over bettors here. 

RELATED: Betting The Over Is Sexy, But Betting The Under Is Smart