We're on to Week 4 of the NFL, but that doesn't mean there's not plenty still to learn from the early weeks.

Hot narratives, new coaches, players on new teams, preseason expectations that don't go as planned (you fantasy players know this all too well) - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions, there's no shortage of resources available with Dimers Pro, now 50% for an NFL season pass with our exclusive FOOTBALL promo code.

To help set you up for the upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

NFL Week 4's Biggest Storylines

It's Omarion Hampton SZN for the Chargers

After Najee Harris has been ruled out for the season, rookie RB Omarion Hampton slides into the RB1 role with no concerns about volume, with just Hassan Haskins is listed behind him on the depth chart.

He’s already logged 15+ carries in two games and showcased his versatility last week with 19 rushing attempts and 6 receptions on 7 targets after Harris exited.

While the opportunity comes at the unfortunate expense of Harris’ season, Hampton now finds himself in a smash spot against a soft Giants defense that has allowed 112.3 rushing yards, 4.3 receptions, and 1.3 touchdowns per game to running backs through three weeks.

He’s projected for 65.8 rushing yards, 20.1 receiving yards, and a 54.5% chance to score, good for 16.0 PPR points—a major step up from his previous 45.0-yard rushing projection and 42.2% touchdown probability.

🏈 Full game preview for Chargers vs. Giants

Micah Parsons returns to Dallas and Packers WRs get a smash spot

While the big story of this Sunday Night Football matchup is the return of Micah Persons to Dallas just four weeks after being traded to Green Bay, the big betting angle is which Packers WRs will go off.

The Cowboys’ defense has been shredded by opposing wideouts, giving up 220.3 receiving yards per game to WRs—25 more than any other team—even with the Eagles only managing 152 passing yards in Week 1.

The damage over the last two weeks has been glaring, with Malik Nabers posting 167 yards and Wan’Dale Robinson adding 142 in Week 2, followed by Luther Burden’s 101-yard outing in Week 3.

The challenge for Green Bay is that Jordan Love has attempted 25 or fewer passes in two games, and the Packers tend to spread the ball around.

Still, Romeo Doubs projects for 44.6 yards, Javon Golden for 43.4, and Dontayvion Wicks for 29.3, while TE Tucker Kraft also comes in at 44.6.

Golden is coming off his best game, and Doubs remains the big-play threat, making them the top bets to break loose for a chunk play and find the end zone against this leaky secondary.

🏈 Full game preview for Packers vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football

Vikings begin two-week overseas trip in Dublin vs. Steelers

The Vikings set up camp in Dublin and then London for a two-week overseas stretch, kicking off vs. the Steelers in Week 4.

With Carson Wentz under center, the outlook is favorable for both Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, who are coming off their best games of the season, though the model still expects points to come at a premium—even Jefferson sits at just a 34.4% chance to score. With Pittsburgh allowing 70.3 receiving yards and a touchdown per game to tight ends, Hockenson is again in a strong spot to produce. Meanwhile, Jordan Addison returns from suspension for his 2025 debut, projecting for 3.3 receptions, 47.3 yards, and a 26.9% Anytime TD probability.

Jordan Mason projects for a workhorse role with 84.4 rushing yards and a 16.4% probability of multiple touchdowns, giving Minnesota balance offensively.

On the other side, the Steelers have a major opportunity to solidify first place in the division, though questions linger after being gifted a win against the Patriots.

The model sees this one as nearly a coin flip to cover and the overseas game trends also point to a grinder: since 2023, international games are 5-3 to the under and 6-2 in favor of the spread covering for favorites, with the lone exceptions being the Chiefs’ upset this year against the Chargers and the Bills’ surprising 2023 loss to the Jaguars.

🏈 Vikings vs. Steelers in Dublin Predictions

1-2 teams on the ropes in Week 4

The Chiefs-Ravens matchup carries massive postseason implications, with Baltimore boasting a strong roster that could easily be sitting at 1-3 due to a poor run defense and Derrick Henry’s uncharacteristic fumbles.

The model leans Ravens to win outright but gives the Chiefs the edge to cover as 2.5-point underdogs, projecting a close game with an early-season playoff atmosphere.

Meanwhile, the Broncos could just as easily be 3-0 after two narrow losses, but instead find themselves staring down 1-3 in a stacked division if they lose this week.

They do, however, catch a break against a Bengals squad struggling without Joe Burrow and draw one of Dimers' Top 5 ML probabilities in Week 4.

Elsewhere among 1-2 teams, the Cowboys, Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Raiders, and Browns have all failed to show much playoff promise in the early going.

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

These bets come straight from the Dimers model and are discussed on our Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, which are currently on a 6-2 run on Sundays!

Bet: Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Eagles (-110 on Caesars)

The Buccaneers host the Eagles as 3.5-point underdogs in a matchup of 3-0 teams, with the model projecting a 24-21 Eagles win.

Philadelphia has a 61% ML probability, though the Bucs show significant value against the spread with a 6.5% edge as a top probability in Week 4.

Tampa’s passing game could struggle without Mike Evans and a limited Chris Godwin, but look for Emeka Egbuka to have a big game, while Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts both carry 50%+ TD odds.

The Bucs’ run defense is strong, but they’ve allowed 71.3 receiving yards per game to RBs, opening up an alley for Saquon Barkley to break a big play.

🏈 Buccaneers vs. Eagles full game predictions

Colts +3.5 @ Rams (-110 DraftKings)

The Colts head to LA as 3.5-point underdogs against the Rams, with the line down from +4 earlier in the week.

Indy is the only 3-0 ATS team this season, and while this is their toughest test so far, the model gives them a 40% upset chance and shows value on the spread, with a 7.7% edge, the highest of the week on Dimers.

Our projected final score is 26-23 in favor of Los Angeles, who narrowly missed covering the spread in Week 3.

🏈 Full Colts-Rams game predictions

Cam Skattebo Anytime TD Scorer (+135 bet365)

Cam Skattebo offers value at +135 against the Chargers, with the model giving him a 46.7% chance to score.

He took over the Giants’ backfield last week after Tyrone Tracy’s injury and should again operate as the workhorse with Devin Singletary posing little threat.

With rookie QB Jaxson Dart under center, Skattebo projects for solid volume despite a strong Chargers run defense, making this a favorable betting spot with fair odds closer to +115 and a 4.2% Dimers edge.

🏈 Full game preview for Chargers vs. Giants

Week 4 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 4.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most likely ML Winners (Survivor)

1️⃣ Bills (89%) vs. Saints

2️⃣ Lions (80%) vs. Browns

3️⃣ Texans (77%) vs. Titans

4️⃣ Broncos (75%) vs. Bengals

5️⃣ Chargers (72%) vs. Giants

Editor's pick: Back the Texans who badly need a win and avoid using them alter in the season.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Bucs +3.5 (59%) vs. Eagles

2️⃣ Colts +3.5 (59%) @ Rams

3️⃣ Jaguars +6.5 (57%) @ 49ers

4️⃣ Giants +6.5 (57%) vs. Chargers

5️⃣ Cowboys +6.5 (57%) vs. Packers

Editor's pick: Ride with the Colts, the Dimers model's best value ATS this week.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️

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