NFL Computer Picks, Best Bets and Analysis For Buccaneers vs. Cowboys in SNF on September 11, 2022

The first edition of Sunday Night Football for the new NFL season features the Dallas Cowboys hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas on Sunday September 11, 2022 at 8:20PM ET. Our Dimers data team is insanely high on Dallas this season, so it'll be interesting to see whether or not the Cowboys can open the year with a win.  

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys betting preview below. 

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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Computer Picks

• 56% chance the Buccaneers win on the money line
• 58% chance the Cowboys cover the +2.5 spread
• 54% Bucs at Cowboys stays Under 51 total points

For the most up to date NFL computer picks, check out our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys live predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Best Bets and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

Our predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Cowboys a 7.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year, which is the fifth-highest mark in football. If Dallas is going to make the leap into the NFL's upper tier, winning games like this is a must. And all things considered, we really like the Cowboys' chances to do so. 

Not only does Dallas have a 58% chance to cover according to our model, but the team also gets a shot at what should be an unpolished version of Brady. We all know the 45-year-old is the best player to ever play the game, but he didn't seem all that focused on football throughout the offseason and he then was absent for parts of training camp. It's going to take some time for him to find his rhythm, and the Cowboys actually have the type of defense to make him a little uncomfortable while he tries to do so.

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Look for Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to ramp up the pressure in this game, as Tampa Bay also happens to be a little banged up along the offensive line. If the Cowboys continue to get bodies in the backfield, it's just highly unlikely that the Buccaneers will be able to win this game. Even the fact that Chris Godwin will need a few weeks to feel fully back from the torn ACL he suffered last year is working against Tampa Bay. 

The Buccaneers very much feel like a team that could get off to a slower start before rounding into shape and turning into a contender late in the year. The Cowboys should be the opposite, as they need to treat these types of games very seriously. And Dallas was actually 13-5 against the spread last season, which should give you comfort in following us on the Cowboys +2.5. 

We expect the Cowboys offense to show up in a big way here, too. Dak Prescott might be looking at the best season of his professional career, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will look for opportunities to beat the Bucs deep. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

Considering we anticipate the Buccaneers offense having some trouble scoring in this one, it's hard not to like the Under in this game. The Cowboys have already talked a lot about leaning on the running game this year, so the combination of a below-average offensive performance from Tampa Bay and a time-of-possession dominant Dallas offense would really do wonders for Under bettors.

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The Under is also 7-3 in the 10 games Dallas has played with a line of +3 to -3 under head coach Mike McCarthy. When you add that to the fact that Tampa Bay now has a defensive-minded head coach in Todd Bowles, you just have to jump on this one to be a somewhat low-scoring game. 

Best Bet: Bucs vs. Cowboys

We're taking Dallas +2.5 in this game and are also very confident in the Cowboys winning outright. It has been mostly business for Dallas throughout the offseason, while Tampa Bay has been in the headlines. The Cowboys will look to capitalize on an unprepared Bucs group and should get the year started off with a win. 

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