NFL Computer Picks, Analysis and Best Bet For Bills vs. Dolphins on September 25, 2022

The Miami Dolphins will have a chance to prove their 2-0 start is no fluke on Sunday September 25, 2022, when they'll take on the Buffalo Bills at 1:00PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Miami is coming off of a remarkable comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens last week, while Buffalo beat up on the Tennessee Titans on Monday.  

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Dolphins vs. Bills betting preview below. 

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Bills vs. Dolphins Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

• 62% chance the Bills win on the money line
• 57% probability the Dolphins cover the +5.5 spread
• 52% Bills vs. Dolphins goes Under 53.5 total points

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bills vs. Dolphins data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Bills vs. Dolphins Analysis

The Spread

The Dolphins are the talk of the town right now, as they erased a 21-point deficit and came back to beat the Ravens in Week 2. Miami looked dead in the water in that game, but then Tua Tagovailoa started to light up the Baltimore secondary. He and Tyreek Hill had no trouble connecting for a few deep passes — which was interesting considering people had doubts about Tua's arm — and now the Dolphins look like they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. The problem for Miami is that Buffalo is a bit better on both sides of the ball. 

Home-field advantage will undoubtedly help the Dolphins make this a better game than it would be in Buffalo, but it's hard to envision Miami defeating the defending AFC East champions at this stage in its retooling process — this is more of a playoff team than a legitimate contender. Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has looked plenty confident running the show now that Brian Daboll is the head coach of the New York Giants. The Bills absolutely torched a solid Titans defense last week and we expect them to do the same to the Dolphins. 

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Since Sean McDermott became the head coach of Buffalo, his team is 15-6 against the spread in the first month of the season and 14-4 ATS after having allowed 99 or fewer yards in back-to-back games. It's just hard to bet against this Bills team once it gets going — especially on the defensive side of the ball. For that reason, we're going with Buffalo to cover. 

Von Miller and the Bills pass rush should be a deciding factor in this one, as Buffalo isn't going to let Tagovailoa get comfortable when he drops back. The Bills also have a very good secondary, so they will remain disciplined and do their best to not allow Hill or Jaylen Waddle to get free down the field. 

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The Over/Under

This game feels like it has the potential to look like something you'd see out of the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns. The Bills have had one of the best offenses in football over the last few years and they appear to be even better this year, with the combination of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs looking unstoppable. But the Dolphins now look like they are ready to join that top tier of offenses, as they really figured out their passing game against the Ravens last week. 

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Both of these teams have talent on the defensive side of the ball, but great offenses tend to get the best of good defenses. And this just looks like it should be a showcase for all of these outstanding offensive players. Look for these offenses to go back and forth quite a bit, with big plays occurring in abundance. 

The Over is actually 7-0 when Buffalo is coming off a win by 28 or more points under McDermott and it's also 9-2 when the team is coming off a game in which it scored at least 35 points in that span. 

Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet

Over 53.5 points

The Bills are a stronger team than the Dolphins, but they're coming off a short week and will be on the road here. With that in mind, our best bet is Over 53.5 and we're not thinking twice about it.  

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