We're on to Week 3 of the NFL, but that doesn't mean there's not plenty still to learn from the early weeks.

Hot narratives, new coaches, players on new teams, preseason expectations that don't go as planned (you fantasy players know this all too well) - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions, there's no shortage of resources available with Dimers Pro, now 50% for an NFL season pass with our exclusive FOOTBALL promo code.

To help set you up for the second of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

NFL Week 3's Biggest Storylines

Bengals prepare for 3 months without Joe Burrow

The Bengals will once again be without their franchise QB for an extended period of time after Joe Burrow sustained a toe injury in Week 2, leading to surgery and a potential three-month absence, a major hit to the 2-0 Bengals who were +250 to win the NFC North before the injury.

Burrow's surgery was successful, putting him already on the road to recovery, but in the interim, it will be Jake Browning under center (at least for now).

Browning entered in relief of Burrow, tossing 3 TD passes along with 3 interceptions en route to a victory over the Jaguars. While Browning may find success again this weekend against a Vikings team also deploying a backup, it doesn't get easier. The Bengals' next three games are against the Broncos, Lions and Packers.

Now down to +800, the Dimers model gives Cincy just a 28.2% probability to win the division despite a 2-0 start, well behind the Ravens' 66.3%.

Things could get dicey for the Bengals skill players - the Dimers model projects Ja'Marr Chase for 74 receiving yards and a 40.1% Anytime TD probability in Week 3, and his 17.1 PPR points are 3.6 less than what he typically averages with Burrow under center.

🏈 Full game preview for Bengals vs. Vikings

Who is the WR1 in Los Angeles?

After tallying 1,149 receiving yards and 7 TDs on 82 catches in his rookie season, Chargers WR Ladd McConkey was a popular pick in fantasy drafts and for Anytime TDs early this season.

His 11 catches and 122 yards through two games are fine, but it's being dwarfed by a player who wasn't even drafted in most fantasy leagues - third-year pro Quentin Johnston.

Though QJ has just 8 catches, he's tallied 150 yard and 3 touchdowns in his first two games of the season, leaving McConkey supporters and bettors a little empty-handed.

Johnston has had a history of drop issues but those seem to be gone through two games, hauling in massive receptions of 60 and 33 yards, both for scores. He's become a go-to target for MVP candidate Justin Herbert and the Dimers model sees a much closer projection for the two receivers in Week 3.

McConkey gets a 34.1% Anytime TD probability compared to  Johnston's 29.2%, the closest they've been yet this season.

However, both may have to wait a week to see who emerges as the top target - the Broncos defense has allowed just one passing touchdown through two games.

🏈 Full game preview for Chargers vs. Broncos

Cam Skattebo's Giants backfield takeover

In what looked to be an "I am the captain now" style mutiny vs. the Cowboys in Week 2, rookie RB Cam Skattebo looks poised to take control of the New York Giants' backfield.

After just two carries in Week 1, Skattebo took 11 totes for 45 yards and a score, as well as bringing in a pair of catches for 14 yards on 3 targets.

His backfield mate Tyrone Tracy Jr. mustered 15 yards on 5 carries, but the lack of efficiency by Tracy is less of an eye-raiser than the situations in which HC Brian Daboll trusted the rookie. When it was winning time and the Giants needed to move the ball, kill clock and get a score, it was Skattebo taking the carries.

The Dimers NFL Projections Hub hasn't fully identified a changing of the guard, but firmly puts Skattebo in fierce competition with Tracy in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs:

Cam Skattebo: 39.4 Rush Yds | 13.0 Rec Yds | 37.5% Anytime TD

Tyrone Tracy: 34.4 Rush Yds | 17.6 Rec Yds | 27.7% Anytime TD

🏈 Chiefs vs. Giants Sunday Night Football Predictions

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

Week 2's picks went 2-0 and earlier this week, we broke down both of these bets on the latest episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

Bet: Rams +4 @ Eagles (-125 BetMGM Sportsbook)

The highest probability on the Dimers Best Bets for NFL Week 3, the Rams get a 65.3% probability to cover the 4-point spread on the road vs. the Eagles.

The Rams scored just 14 points in Week 1 but put on a show vs. the vulnerable Titans in Week 2, while the Eagles struggled to score against a Chiefs team that wasn't able to sustain drives.

A 9.8% edge indicates fair odds of -190, presenting major value at odds of -125. The Dimers model predicts a final score of 24-21 and a 38.9% probability of a Rams upset.

🏈 Rams vs. Eagles full game predictions

Bet: Browns +8.5 vs. Packers (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Our best edge of NFL Week 3 is on the Cleveland Browns to cover the 8.5-point spread as underdogs hosting the elite Green Bay Packers.

At a 61.6% probability, this is our second-most likely team to cover the spread in Week 3 behind only the Rams.

Favorable odds of -112 indicate an edge of 8.7% which would make the fair odds on this bet -160.

The Dimers model projects the Browns to cover by almost a full field goal with a predicted final score of 24-18 in favor of the Packers.

🏈 Full Browns vs. Packers game predictions

Week 3 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out our guide to Week 2 with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 3.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most likely ML Winners (Survivor)

1️⃣ Seahawks (76%) vs. Saints

2️⃣ Packers (75%) @ Browns

3️⃣ Buccaneers (74%) vs. Jets

4️⃣ Falcons (68%) @ Panthers

5️⃣ Ravens (68%) vs. Lions

Editor's pick: Hard to see the Bucs losing at home vs. a Jets team starting backup QB Tyrod Taylor.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Rams +4 @ Eagles (65%)

2️⃣ Browns +8.5 vs. Packers (62%)

3️⃣ Bengals +3 @ Vikings (58%)

4️⃣ Giants +6.5 vs. Chiefs (58%)

5️⃣ Saints +7.5 @ Seahawks (56%)

Editor's pick: Ride with the model's top pick which is perfect through two weeks and back the Rams.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅

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Dimers' 2025 NFL Season Betting Resources

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• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
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